@RogerEQD

Professional investor, US equities/derivatives

 London, UK
Joined December 2013
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U.S. WAR IN IRAN STRAINS MUNITIONS STOCKPILES Heavy U.S. weapons use during Operation Epic Fury has caused strategic inventory shortages and exposed production bottlenecks, according to the Pentagon inspector general. The Pentagon estimated $22.3 billion in munitions had been used by late June, with total war costs exceeding $33 billion. Officials are now accelerating procurement and stockpiling critical materials to rebuild supplies.
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$SPCX $ 25bn short interest (219m shares) Lockup overplayed Short covering next week, it will be funny 😂
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What did I say about $SPCX ?
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$TSLA: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $220
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$CCL Finished building my position at $23.50/share Stock oversold and 200d MA at 22.80 Definitely accumulate here and thank me later
$CCL 2 things I noticed 1/ debt repurchase 2/ latest Caribbean cruises sold out I building a long <$25
Back on $CCL Pent-up demand: latest cruises sold in 24 hours and favourable pricing trends on limited supply and strong holiday catch-up demand. I would buy below $25 with current market valuations (S&P @ 4300)
$CCL anyone having read the Arnold interview on FT this weekend would sell here without even thinking
$CCL obvious sell here From FT The chief executive of Carnival has said the industry is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2023, in light of prolonged lockdowns and the reputational fallout from coronavirus outbreaks on cruise ships.
$CCL According to UBS, 57% of cruise bookings are for 2022. Demand is within historical range. So expect another 9 months of cash burn (maybe less in Q4), which should be for the year a hit of $6bn (including one-off restart charges). Cruise names are due for a pullback
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$CCL At least starting to make good money on my short after weeks of irrational highs on the name
$CCL, trades now 20% higher than in January 2020 with no ships on sea ... Carnival management has increased value of the company thanks to Covid !!! Well done
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$CCL extends pause until May’21 as I have said many times Cash burn Jan-May21 = $3bn But stock is up
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$CCL $NCLH again & again Including the convertible bonds issued, the number of shares has doubled. Add massive debt raised. To finance the vanished cash. It means these stocks trade higher than before Covid Have you seen any ship on the sea ?
$CCL @ $28 amounts to $50bn valuation Add $3bn of cash burn between Jan and May, according to monthly cash burn given by management Add restarting costs ... $CCL stock is a Covid beneficiary ... a shame the company is not !
$CCL No tech it is a business limited by capacity Is the market aware, $CCL is burning $600m per month until June when it can restart progressively its operations ???
$CCL recovery value PreCovid, CCL was worth $46.5bn (share at 52$ and net debt at 11bn end of Q4'19) Now CCL is worth $51.5bn (share at $26.90 and net debt at 16.3bn end of Q4'20 assuming full conversion the convertible bonds and $600m monthly cash burn til restart in June) ...
$CCL $1bn stock offering ... I told you so ...
$CCL easy short here $26.90, mark my words Market is ignoring the dilution, the current cash burn until slow restart in June, lower capacity and the debt raised. Adjusted by new shares and debt, stock trades at all time high ! no ships on the seas yet !
$CCL has its $GME moment. Without hesitation à short, I added at $26.15. Stock trades higher than preCovid on Enterprise Value with no ships sailing before June
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