Rob Pizzola, M.D.

I AM BUYING A SAMAJE PERINE JERSEY

LIGHTS GUY HAS THE UNDER

Saw a Christmas tree up in a neighbor's window tonight. It's November 6th. I'm calling this an emergency.

For the last five years, I’ve been storing weekly public betting percentages from as many sources as I can find. The goal is just to have the data. Personally, I don’t think you should use them in your handicapping at all. Not as a primary input, and not as a tiebreaker. But you’re entitled to do whatever you want. What gets me is how wide the range is from site to site. Look at CIN/ATL this week. Action Network → 57% Falcons DK → 83% Bengals MGM → 66% Falcons Pikkit → 53% Bengals They all pull from different sources (Pikkit uses bets placed in its own app), but that’s an insane spread. I won’t post the paywalled numbers, but they make it even more confusing. You can tell yourself any story you want after the game. Bengals were the public side. No wait, it was the Falcons. I ran a quick test averaging all of them, paid and free. No predictive value whatsoever. None of them have any on their own either. I understand why certain people keep pushing this but I don't understand why people keep falling for this.

Many are complaining about Jags/Ravens tonight. Terrible game, they say. In six months, you'll be watching the NBA regular season and would give a kidney to get this game back. I'd give my left testicle. Medically speaking, that's the bigger sacrifice.

With respect, every job comes with accountability. If I operate on the wrong knee, nobody tells me the internet is being cruel. Basic preparation is part of the job.

🚨 Clinical results on the NFL zig zag trend: 27 seasons. 2,700+ games. Exactly 50.0%. Only 9 of 27 seasons were above break even. The seasons that started this hot went 84-83-6 the rest of the way. Patient is having a hot year. Patient is not healthy. Prognosis for Week 9 plays: coin flip.

Diagnosis: the 2023 draft broke some GMs' brains. Bijan and Gibbs hitting at the top of the first round erased decades of first round running backs busting from their memory. Two hits don't change the history. Paying up for a non-premium position still hurts to watch.

Diagnosis: patient believes coaching doesn't matter in the NFL. Clinical history: owns a team that hasn't reached an NFC Championship Game since 1995. These two findings may be related.

Clinical standard I’d like the NFL to adopt for hits to the head.... Would this have hurt him if he wasn’t wearing a helmet? If no, pick up the flag.

Vitals in the early window are looking excellent. A little too excellent. Bracing for the second halves to undo all of it.

Coughing up blood ✅ Broken rib ✅ Cleared to play ✅ The NFL medical standard has always been simple: if you can stand, you can play.

Somehow the people who are the most wrong are always the ones who are the most confident. There's a medical term for confidently teaching things you don't understand. It's called Twitter. Every sharp I know bets heavy favorites when the number is wrong. Every one.