Life begins when fear ends.
Joined January 2019
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Bucky retweeted
Chamath says IP and software were "effectively rendered worthless" this week, after people decompiled Adobe's core products and published open-source versions, as every service goes headless
"The more important point I want to make though, is I sent this to Nick, there's been a couple things that happened in the last couple days, which I think are incredibly important."
"There have been people that decompiled the entire, the entire big five. What is the big five? Adobe has five very, very important products in their product suite. Freeberg may know them all, but I just know Photoshop. There's like a bunch of others. Okay."
"And these folks decompiled it, distilled it, and published open source versions of these things. And Rust, yeah. And I was so shocked, because I was like, hold on a second, these are like profound products that have existed and have had moats for years, and now they're just open source versions."
"And then Nikita was, I think, trolling, and he was building on that idea, and just talking about GTA, because it's about to get released. I think GTA 6 is about to come out, and we'll reconstruct this."
"Why is this important?"
"I think that IP and software was effectively rendered worthless two days ago."
"Because if you think about it, when everything is headless, so when Elon makes his services headless, Benioff made Salesforce headless a few months earlier, when all of these things are headless, and you can wrap them in agent tools, and you can connect them via MCP to other experiences, the value of IP does no longer exist in software. It doesn't exist."
"And I think that probably is the most profound implication."
"So, like, even in our business, we would argue with some of our customers all the time, because we'll say, oh, we'll build this for you, we'll own the IP. They'll say, no, we want the IP. We don't know how to negotiate it. And two days ago, I walked into the 8090 guys, I said, who cares? Who cares? But before, it was always a negotiation and a set of trade-offs. Now it's a who-cares thing, where, like, the IP is irrelevant."
"It still takes a while for the machinery of a business, and frankly the market, to understand. But that is the most important thing that happened this week in AI, in my opinion."
David Sacks says Anthropic is run by a "religious cult" and is doing the very things it says it fears most, like opening a wet lab while warning of bio risk, and that there's an argument for sending in a federal SWAT team
"But I do think that there are potential externalities from having the number one frontier model company run by a religious cult."
"So, for example, they are opening a Claude-powered wet lab in the middle of San Francisco. But at the same time, they're warning of bio risk. At the same time, they say that we have to pace the frontier, they're extending the frontier. At the same time that they are saying that there's a risk of superintelligence growing beyond our control, they're programming it to grow beyond our control."
"I think there are potentially huge externalities to the way they approach these things. And it's, like, insane that they call these decisions "safety." These are not safe decisions. These are crazy decisions, it seems to me."
"This is why I've called this a schizophrenic company, is they appear to be not only hypocritical, but they're doing the things that they say they are most afraid of."
"Like, what is going on here? This is bizarre. And I don't know where this all leads. I do think there's an argument for a federal SWAT team to come blasting in there."
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The referenced open-source Adobe alternatives were not created via decompilation. Their developer describes them as clean-room reimplementations built from public specs, observed behavior and AI assistance in Rust.
github.com/storytold/phot…
arstechnica.com/ai/2026/10/sof…
frontiernow.dev/en/resources/a…
Bucky retweeted
⚡️🇺🇸🔥 Andre Williams TORCHES Brandon Tatum and Marc Lamont Hill for being afraid to call out Jews and Black crime.
Bucky retweeted
Gold miners are now the cheapest group in the US stock market.
Last week retail investors put $2.6 billion into chip stocks instead.
The crowd always shows up late. xitter.cf/TaviCosta/status/21115…
Meanwhile…
If gold miners were a standalone sector, they would be the cheapest group in this comparison of US equities.
Roughly a 10% free cash flow yield.
No other sector shown comes close.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/sho…
Bucky retweeted
Professor Jiang: "If the Democratic candidates said... we will stop this war in Iran, or two, we will have a moratorium on data centers, or three, we'll force the release of the Epstein files, there would be a blue tsunami... But they don't say any of these three things."
Bucky retweeted
Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise?
At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups.
When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%.
Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of
$NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself.
Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board.
If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke.
That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA.
This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.
Bucky retweeted
In 1893 a Norwegian scientist deliberately froze his ship into the Arctic ice, let it drift for three years, and lost not a single man to scurvy or anything else. Then he walked off it and spent nine months in a hole in the ground eating bear.
Fridtjof Nansen was thirty-two, a zoologist with a doctorate on the nervous system of a worm. His theory was that the polar current would carry a ship across the top of the world if the ship was built not to be crushed. He built one. He called it the Fram, took twelve men, and sailed into the pack.
For three years they lived in the dark and the cold with no fresh food arriving from anywhere. On every previous expedition that had meant scurvy, the disease that had killed more sailors than the sea. Nansen's crew had none. They shot polar bear and seal, and ate the meat fresh and barely cooked, as the Inuit did. The doctor on board had almost nothing to do.
In 1895 Nansen and one companion left the ship on skis to make for the Pole. They got further north than any human had been, turned back, and were caught by winter on an empty island. They built a hut of stones and walrus hide, and for nine months they ate bear meat and walrus blubber and nothing else. No vegetable, no grain, no fruit. They came out in the spring fatter than they went in.
Then they walked home.
Nansen went on to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and lived to 68.
Every schoolchild is taught that a diet without vegetables will rot you from the inside. Two men spent a winter underground on nothing but fat and meat and came out fit to walk across the Arctic, and that was 130 years ago.
Bucky retweeted
#Silver Here we go:
Tandem-Solar lowers the need for #Silver which increases the need for #Silver
Watch 📺 the Daily Graph 🕸️
An LLM Chat converted in a knowledge Graph By AI via GraphCall... Today? Silver.
graphcall.com/execute?task=N…
Should Silver intensity decrease with Tandem Solar?
YES
So all else equal the cost per watt falls with tandem solar ?
YES
And a plunge in costs per Watt combined with the situation of Car to Grid with bi-directional inverters in Silicon carbide should combined would reduce very significantly the total system costs of Solar energy (all else equal)
YES
Which in turn drives a lage increase in demand because demand for cheap energy is quite elastic.
YES
And that means a lot more demand for Solar energy comes in.
YES
However, as the Silver intensity per Watt has decreased the price point where Silver is a roadblock is quite higher.
YES
Are we in a Jevons paradox already?
TOTALLY 😍
Bucky retweeted
So why buy Silver on this dip?
Because you CAN NOT cure inflation induced by a fiscal problem with a monetary tool.
TADA!
Reply and DM if you want to know more.
Bucky retweeted
Remarkable admission from CoreWeave co-founder that life insurers (i.e., private credit) is this bubble's dumbest money. As noted exactly a year ago, insurers will be this generation's "widows and orphans" after the wipeout
Bucky retweeted
A very interesting watch- Every Civilization Dies the Same Stupid Way — Spengler Predicted Ours youtu.be/SbcU9xP1ros?si=0AdC… via @YouTube
Bucky retweeted
BARCLAYS DESK:
“.. I’ve yet been presented with a credible framework as to where this money is going to come from ..”
Bucky retweeted
On January 8, 1888, 19-year-old Kate Kampen gave birth to her son, Henry Royal Kampen, alone in a freezing sod cabin on the Dakota prairie. Her husband, Wilhelm, had left the previous day to travel 23 miles to Parker for coal and food, unaware that their baby would arrive while he was gone. With their supplies nearly exhausted, the coal bin empty, and no doctor or midwife nearby, Kate faced an unimaginable situation. She wrapped her newborn in every scrap of cloth she could find, climbed into bed, and held him against her bare skin, using her own body heat to keep him alive. She had no way of knowing that an even greater danger was approaching.
On January 12, the devastating Children’s Blizzard swept across the Great Plains, bringing ferocious winds, blinding snow, and temperatures plunging far below zero. Hundreds of people were caught in the storm, and 235 lives were lost. Wilhelm was stranded in the open prairie when the blizzard struck. After his horses collapsed, he stumbled toward shelter and eventually crawled into a barn, where he survived for three days by huddling among pigs for warmth. Meanwhile, Kate remained in the cabin, holding Henry close through the freezing nights, with no fire, no help, and no certainty that her husband would ever return. For days, her own warmth and determination became her newborn’s only protection against the deadly cold.
When the storm finally passed, Wilhelm made his way home, frostbitten and barely able to stand, but alive. He built a fire, and the cabin slowly warmed again. Kate and Henry had survived against extraordinary odds. The couple went on to raise seven children, build a life on the prairie, and Kate lived into her nineties. Her story is a powerful reminder that courage does not always announce itself with grand gestures. Sometimes, it is a frightened young mother lying in the darkness, refusing to let go of her child. The world may never know the names of countless ordinary heroes, but their extraordinary acts of love and survival deserve to be remembered.
Bucky retweeted
Said it in the post below just before silver´s big move, and saying it now again:
►Do not get beat down by the declines, or lose interest during them. Understand them, be ready for them. They will pass. And, do not fight the market, use that energy to improve emotional control.
As said many times during the years - during declines & consolidations, never look away or lose sight of the bigger picture.
#preciousmetals will deliver a trending move, just need patience.
The #commodities bull market is in full swing.
A true end of the rainbow opportunity.
Bucky retweeted
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms."
- Mike Ditka
RIP to a legend
Bucky retweeted
Silver is now down at one of the possible very big picture backtest support levels on the monthly time frame (see previous post just below).
Here is the possible support level on quarterly time frame.
Bucky retweeted
$SILVER / $SPX | 130+ Years of History, a 50-Year Breakout
A couple of observations...
We broke above multi-decade descending resistance, followed by a textbook backtest of that breakout, beautifully illustrated in the bottom-left inset.
We're now approaching another major resistance cluster. A confirmed monthly breakout could open the door to a retest of the previous major highs in silver's relative performance against the S&P 500...
The bigger picture? This isn't just about silver going higher. It's about silver potentially entering another prolonged period of massive outperformance versus equities.
45+ years of structure. Think bigger. Watch the monthly closes...
Bucky retweeted
Die Welle 4 im #Silber um 50$ könnte sich genauso abspielen 👇
#Silver
It's absolutely crazy how accurate this Elliott Wave count from early 2020 has turned out to be.
According to it, we should currently be in wave A.
A countertrend rally should come next (B), followed by a slightly lower double bottom (C (4)). The rest of the scenario is still to come.
The timing is slightly off, but considering this analysis was made back in 2020, it's pretty remarkable
tiedje-trading.com/analysen/…
Bucky retweeted
NEW: My conversation with Cem Karsan about the Big Print that's coming: the government stepping in and buying stocks outright, which he thinks could be months away.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Preview
1:02 There's a major player "bullying" the market
4:33 The five pressures backing Washington into a corner
8:58 How a few stocks are hiding how weak the SP500 looks
16:00 Is buying stocks the government's only move left?
21:59 Why they need a crash, and why it hasn't happened yet
27:32 Who really controls the world's oil right now
34:00 The debt wall nobody is talking about
43:14 His views on Bitcoin, and where he thinks it hits a ceiling
54:25 How much will the market crash?
58:22 The AI story that made him start watching for a trigger
1:05:41 What he'd actually do with his money right now
Follow Cem at @jam_croissant