Senior Advisor on Development Finance @savechildrenuk. Views are my own
Joined February 2018
- Tweets492
- Following134
- Followers596
- Likes455
Next weeks #WBGMeetings are a ❌ road moment for @WorldBank. Does it:
a) Do "more with less", or
b) "More with more", through innovation & inclusivity
Read why my hope is b), to shape a more positive outlook for the world.
savethechildren.org.uk/blogs…
Ahead of tomorrows #AutumnBudget all the talk is of changes to #UKgov fiscal rules, yet zero mention of altering the specific rules on #UKaid
A blog on how their alignment can help solve the current crisis in #UKaid spending and 🧵with 🔑 points 1/6
savethechildren.org.uk/blogs…
Tomorrow, the UK government has a clear choice to make:
- Continue treating #UKaid as the ugly duckling vs overall fiscal policy, and widen the disconnect between them
or
- Treat them as the equals as they should be & demonstrate global leadership at this critical time
6/6 end
@FCDOGovUK's budget cuts have begun...
The £707 million payment due to be made to @WBG_IDA this year has been deferred into next (see table).
The result? - A further (and large) squeeze on next years aid budget.
Expect more deferred payments, then project level cuts if needed.
Unlike the last two years, when @hmtreasury allocated an additional £2.5 billion in ODA spending above 0.5% GNI, this year it hasn't (yet)done so.
This means at best @FCDOGovUK likely having to defer payments into next year, or at worse cutting projects. 6/8
Whilst more ODA funding this year is imperative to avoid yet more cuts, this issue will keep happening without systemic change.
@FCDOGovUK budgets in the future continue to be fully allocated under a 0.5% GNI ceiling, again based on reduced home office spending (see chart). 7/8
However, @ukhomeoffice spending isn't reducing as planned. Migrant arrivals by boat are still historically high, tracking inline with levels in 2022 & 2023.
This has led @FCDOGovUK to surrender almost £1 billion in planned ODA spending to the home office (see picture). 4/8
There is now no @FCDOGovUK budget uplift, it's similar to last year, but with a real risk more funding could be surrendered to the @ukhomeoffice.
This is because the Home Office has said it still doesn't have sufficient budget & will need to ask for more (see picture). 5/8
The @FCDOGovUK plan has been carried forward to actual budgeted activities. Currently £9 billion has already been allocated (see chart).
Even if @ukhomeoffice ODA spending was significantly reduced, this would have left FCDO with limited scope for any new in year spending. 3/8
Another year & yet another budget squeeze for @FCDOGovUK ...
Despite promises of an uplift in aid spending, the opposite is looking more and more likely.
Lets dive into the reasons why and what options the new UK government has. A 🧵 1/8
Last year, @FCDOGovUK set out a plan to significantly uplift its ODA spending (see chart), banking on @ukhomeoffice reducing it's aid spending in relation to hosting refugees.
FCDO annual report and accounts 2022 to 2023 - GOV.UK (gov.uk). 2/8
The UK government is set to cut it's international climate finance contributions by £1.6 billion.
An announcement I am guessing Rishi Sunak won't be making at #COP28...
No need for a 🧵, all the gory details/analysis in the blog 👇
savethechildren.org.uk/blogs…
No wonder the UK didn't mention the UN Tax Convention in the white paper, they just tried to get it removed in the ongoing vote on it now (see link).
Their amendment was rejected though (see pic)
un.org/en/ga/second/78/docs/…
For those interested in when "the fiscal situation allows" a return to spending 0.7% GNI on #UKaid, then @OBR_UK's new outlook shows no change from March, still 2027/28...
#AutumnStatement
The UK's governments white paper is out, all 140 pages...
Lots to like, some things less so. Here are my top 5 good and bad bits. A 🧵
Lets start with the good... 1/12
gov.uk/government/publicatio…
❎ 5) Mobilising private capital
Whilst good focus on breaking down barriers for private sector investment & looking to ensure the poorest are supported, it doesn't feel yet there is a cohesive strategy to achieve this, esp. when so much UK aid is going to be spent on it. 11/12