xTradFi 15yrs - Investing journal for small hedge fund. Current bets: Biotech, Critical Commodities, Robotics.
Joined December 2021
- Tweets2.6K
- Following643
- Followers511
- Likes96.5K
Crypto sitting on 5 year support lines
Great risk/reward
But if it breaks down then its over for a while: new market structure
ethereum:native
ALT $ETH Ethereum sitting on 5 year support lines. Great risk/reward. If it breaks these levels then its over for a while (new market structure).
President Trump is undefeated in the stock market.
On May 8th, President Trump told everyone to "go out and buy a Dell."
19 days later, on May 27th, Dell was awarded a $9.7B contract with the US Pentagon.
Today, Dell, $DELL, reported stronger than expected earnings and the stock surged +30%.
Dell's stock is now up +80% since May 8th, adding +$120 BILLION in market cap.
Truly unprecedented.
Devil's advocate:
1. US now hv Venezuelan latest global supply (will take time, but its coming)
2. Oil intensity keeps declining (and will continue with solar + nuclear)
xitter.cf/i/status/2036709809337…
JPY falling = US intervention
Trade:
long: EM equities (benefit from falling USD)
why not long Yen? Too volatile during intervention
short: DXY (e.g. short USD/CHF)
why not short USD/Gold? (gold sharp rally = pullback risk)
Logic
→ Weak yen = carry unwind pressure (forced yen buying, risk asset selling)
→ Japan sells USTs to cover/repatriate
→ US can't afford 3rd largest Treasury holder selling → Japanese voters angry (import inflation) + Feb election = political pressure to act
→ US incentive: stabilise Treasury market, not defend dollar
Synchronized. A global reacceleration is under way and it is broadening.
Details below.
dannydayan.substack.com/p/sy…
he got hit hard by 10/10
(Oct'25: largest leverage flush in crypto history)
tl:dr reduce leverage (crypto spot is volatile enough)
DeFi sadly looks like Turkey Risk
Balancer v2 got hacked for $120m despite:
→ 11 audits
→ from 4 top security firms &
→ 4+ years operating experience
xitter.cf/CupOJoseph/status/1985…
ETH trade summary:
buy (slowly, 50% over next week preCPI)
- the flashcrash flushed leverage
- most of the marker in fear
- MM finished spot sales (rebalancing their exposure)
Lower first? CPI on Friday?
- volatility going into the CPI numbers this Fri is 'buy the dip'
- add 50% pre CPI, then add/reduce if CPI is good/bad
Trade levels
- invalidate (stop loss) <3800 breakdown
- confirm: short momo >4200 (short term trade)
- confirm: long mom confirms >5000 daily close (long term trade)
While every CT Kol is bouncing from bull to bear every week
Blackrocks Bitcoin ETF quietly became the most successful ETF in history
..slowly, then all at once
$IBIT a hair away from $100 billion, is now the most profitable ETF for BlackRock by a good amount now based on current aum. Check out the ages of the rest of the Top 10. Absurd.
