Multi-award winning Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Exploiting capital flows in commodity futures using statistics & probabilities.
Newport Beach, CA
Joined September 2014
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You listed the wrong Red Rock Capital
@RedRockCapital is a systematic commodities trading firm...not having anything to do with #realestate
FUNDED DEAL: Red Rock Capital (@RedRockCapital), a Colorado-based private real estate lender and fund manager, funded a $280,000 cash-out refinance loan secured by a single-family rental in Cheyenne, WY. The property’s estimated value was $612,000. We paid off a previous loan balance of $150,000. The existing Borrower needed the proceeds to fund another real estate investment project. Despite a lower credit score, the Borrower had a history of on-time payments on a previous loan with our company. We referred the Borrower back to the originating broker and provided financing based on the property’s collateral value. The property’s rental income nearly covered the loan’s interest payments. The subject property was in good condition and tenant-occupied at closing. The home is approximately 2,177 square feet and sits on a 2.57-acre lot. The interest rate was 14%. We charged an origination fee of 3% of the loan amount, and the broker earned a $5,600 commission. The loan term was set at 24 months, with the Borrower planning to repay the loan through refinancing. This bridge loan was funded in July 2026.
Visit this page on Private Lender Link to learn more about the deal and the lender: pllk.io/276926
#privatelending #privatemoney #privatelenders #privatemortgage #hardmoney #hardmoneylenders #hardmoneylending #bridgelending #bridgelenders
An interesting question regarding the below neighbor's situation is: with the U.S. $40 Trillion in debt, do you think your taxes will be higher or lower in the future when you want / need those funds?
(not tax or financial advice; just brainstorming here...)
Red Rock Capital retweeted
He's a fascinating mind, man, and person
A living legend is @EdwardOThorp
Had the wonderful pleasure of meeting Ed Thorp (@EdwardOThorp) of Beat The Dealer and Beat The Market fame and his son Jeff for lunch yesterday. Ed wrote a kind blurb for The Missing Billionaires and hopefully will again for our new book coming out next year!
So down -1.7% in the past year is "plummeting"
LOL LOL
I've twice lived thru Orange County falling > 30%
Red Rock Capital retweeted
Never increase bet size in a drawdown
Funny how the retail trader crowd + MSM Financial channels used to push the "FAANG" narrative...then it became #FAANGMAN...then "Mag 7"
Those not-so-subtle shifts say a lot. What happened to just FAANG - and FAANGMAN?
#Survivorshipbias #behavioralfinance #FAANG #Mag7
Credit where credit is due: @EdwardOThorp dubbed it the Kelly Criterion and pioneered its use in investing
#ConvertibleArbitrage #StatisticalArbitrage #StatArb
Você alavanca 10x achando que vai ficar rico mais rápido.
Matematicamente, está fazendo o oposto.
Em 1956, um engenheiro da Bell Labs chamado John Kelly Jr. resolveu um problema que ninguém tinha formalizado: qual é o tamanho ÓTIMO de uma aposta?
A resposta mudou cassinos, hedge funds e mercados de previsão. 🧵
You should run the same analysis using the returns from our Commodity Long-Short Program :-)
Corrections come and go, and if all we get is a 10-15% drawdown while the fundamentals remain robust, then it will just be a simple matter of rebalancing. Still, a balanced portfolio should have diversifiers, especially in word in which the tail risks on both sides are fat. Bonds have been the traditional diversifier and did that job well until the rate reset in 2022. Since that time, the correlation has started to fall again, and as the chart below shows, on a 52-week bass bonds are once again negatively correlated.
I will (bet against them) if Oil goes up and not down
Re: JPM & Goldman: a broken clock is right twice a day
Make enuff predictions...& eventually a couple will come to fruition ;-)
Meanwhile pull a salary...and not be held accountable for of the inaccurate predictions :-(
Red Rock Capital retweeted
I can honestly (and happily) say that, as a professional commodities trader, "excitement" never enters the picture. "Calm" and "deliberate" much more accurately describe how I and much better traders that I've known historically have succeeded...
@EdwardOThorp
Btw, do you ever fully 'own' any of the three? Cars & homes require insurance, licensing & registration fees each year. (insurance for a home is not a requirement, I guess, but good luck..)
Also, I'd argue that unless you 'own' your home free & clear, you 'own' a mortgage on it.
When I have a new idea upon which I am doing R&D -- I automatically take it to the most difficult time period that I can find -- to try to fail it out of my strenuous stress-testing and R&D process.
Almost nothing makes it through.
Here you go @charliebilello
