Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 (@RedPandaDiet) header
Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 (@RedPandaDiet) profile picture

Nuclear power. Georgism and classical liberalism. Queer. Skeptic. I block tankies and fascists. Wannabe vegan.

California-ish
Joined June 2020
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
I’ve worked that heatshield my entire adult life. Peak career moment today To go from little 7 tile patches to a full reusable ship. Absolute marathon I’m so grateful I got to do something useful, that I was given the chance I don’t really have many good memories from this experience. It was so difficult. It almost looks easy now, but none of it came easily Please do something amazing with this rocket. This tech is such a gift, a love letter to the species
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
To those arguing for appeasing Putin as a way to end the war, please read this passage from one of your academic heros: "Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and therefore it is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder gentler opponent much less a peace loving state. Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet not shrink and aggressors appetite for conquest.” “Because great powers are programmed for offense, and appease state is likely to interpret any power concession by another state as a sign of weakness -- as evidence that the appeaser is unwilling to defend the balance of power the appeased state is then likely to continue pushing for more concessions.” “Furthermore, the appeased state’s capability to gain even more power would be enhanced --probably substantially -- by the additional power it was granted by the appeaser. In short, appeasement is likely to make a dangerous rival more, not less, dangerous.” Thats not McFaul, @kajakallas , or @sikorskiradek . That's John Mearsheimer! The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 2014, page 164.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Frank Braconi, who is an actual economist, inadvertently asked me a softball question about why the operating expenses of non-profit housing owners are usually double those of for-profit owners. I also note that public housing operating expenses are usually triple those of private, for-profit owners. Amazingly, even with the orders of magnitude of additional spending, the non-profit buildings tend to have worse physical conditions and the public housing buildings are well known to be the worst of all. With apologies in advance that this post may be too technical and into the weeds for some, here we go. As Frank surely knows, there are these standard economic concepts called Principal Agent and Moral Hazard. Let's examine these in terms of the three kinds of housing ownership. In for-profit housing, the owner/manager is the Principal Agent and its motivation is the long term maximization of income and return on capital reinvestments. When it comes to "purchased items" this owner carefully negotiates and bids costs with suppliers, minimizes waste, avoids costly violations and fines, fears foreclosure and litigation and reserves capital to reinvest in well-planned component replacement and money saving innovations. Examples include heat timers, utility submetering and complex self-insurance structures, to key off Frank's questions below. Utility submetering, for one, reduces consumption by 2/3 in practice: a huge savings! There is very little Moral Hazard here because the Principal Agent is the direct beneficiary of the cost savings and it is not a judgment-proof entity. In non-profit housing, we encounter our first Moral Hazard. The owner is an entity that by virtue of being the owner of last-resort, has an soft loss backstop from the public. The non-profit's manager, acting as Principal Agent, still has to do all the work of a manager but is only compensated by a salary, also a hazard. So in the non-profit scenario, the manager will do everything to maximize its salary but only impose as much careful effort as is needed to prevent the building from literally collapsing. Since this type of property doesn't have to pay real estate taxes, an amount which usually would be around half of net income, all of that money can be squandered on careless and indifferent negotiation and purchasing with suppliers. It should surprise no one that careless purchasing often comes with emoluments for the Principal Agent, another Moral Hazard. This owner is also less risk averse, because when fines and violations arrive resulting in eventual litigation judgments, there is no owner to worry about the outcome. They become just another delayable payable. Conditions naturally deteriorate but at least the building doesn't fall over. And finally we have the public owner who truly has no "skin in the game." Perversely, the public owner cares mostly about how to MAXIMIZE the operating costs because the Principal Agent and Moral Hazard problems are here in full effect. The salary to manage public housing is a pittance, so the Principal Agent may only earn their fair compensation through emoluments. The legendary graft at agencies like NYCHA is well documented and consistent at public housing throughout the world. Moreover, prevailing wage regulations already force any operating expense that includes a service to cost at least double, even before any mischief takes place. Of recent note, the well publicized case of the NYCHA employee-plumber Jakub Markowski who allegedly earned $465k via overtime rigging. When the property earns fines and violations, develops truly dangerous conditions or employees behave with utter gross negligence, only the taxpayer is on the hook and no one ever loses their job or pension thanks to the representatiion of powerful labor syndicates. With this incentive structure, it should be no surprise at all that building conditions are atrocious and it costs $527k to renovate a single public housing unit.
Any idea why non-profit operating costs would be 2x that of for-profit owners? A lot of operating costs are just purchased items, like heating oil, water, electricity, insurance, etc.
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If someone invents a machine that makes food 50% cheaper and becomes a billionaire, society hasn't lost a billion dollars. We've gained cheaper food. The fact that someone got rich solving a problem doesn't mean the rest of us got poorer. Wealth creation isn't theft.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
“The capitalist only cares about your money.” Which gives him a reason to care what I want. A socialist planner is much more interested in telling me what I should want, than actually catering to my needs.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
I have a major result to share. I’ve found conclusive forensic evidence that the top 4 Chinese AI labs—DeepSeek, Moonshot, MiniMax and Ant Group—have built their newest models on NVIDIA’s most advanced Blackwell chips, which are barred from export to China. This sounds insane, but I discovered that almost every AI model carries a hidden signature of the GPU that trained it. When a model is first set up, the starting values of its weights are laid out in a pattern that depends on the exact GPU. Each combination of GPU and seed number produces a unique pattern—a sort of fingerprint of the hardware used to create the model. Traces of that pattern survive training into the published model. Again, this evidence isn’t based on any insider information or leaking. It’s based on a forensic analysis of the model weights released by the companies themselves. I searched more than six trillion combinations of chip layout and seed number and matched them to open-weights models. In doing so, I found conclusive evidence that six Chinese AI models—including DeepSeek-V4-Pro, Kimi K3, and MiniMax-M3—were initialized on NVIDIA Blackwell systems. Four of the models match Grace Blackwell, the GB200 and GB300 parts in NVIDIA’s flagship liquid-cooled rack-scale systems. I then verified these results on real hardware. Running unmodified PyTorch with the seeds I’d recovered, a Blackwell B300 reproduced DeepSeek-V4-Flash’s untouched starting weights bit for bit, and a rented GB200 reproduced Kimi K3’s to a correlation of 0.999995. A Hopper H100 reproduced none of DeepSeek-V4-Flash’s, and changing the seed by one broke the match. (DeepSeek’s seed is 953049583 by the way.) The method also was verified to match 24 known open-weights models to the hardware that developers said they used. It is exceedingly unlikely that these results are a coincidence. Across six trillion combinations, the best accidental match should reach only about 8 sigma (i.e., eight standard deviations above what random chance would produce). The real matches range from 49 to 1,385 sigma, and even the weakest single test hits 20. These were data-center-scale training runs. With some analysis of release schedules and model details, I estimate that the largest, Kimi K3 and DeepSeek-V4-Pro, used 2,000 to 3,000 Blackwell GPUs each. Clusters of this size cost on the order of $150 to $200 million each to buy, and across these labs alone would add up to more than half a billion dollars of export-controlled GPUs, not counting experimental compute or otherwise. It’s quite likely that we see multi-billion dollar expenditure on export-controlled GPUs. I am highly confident in this result, and it has been independently verified by senior researchers at OpenAI and Anthropic. You can read the full report at unemploymentlabs.com/checkpo…. There is much more I’ve identified about these models through other forms of checkpoint forensics like this, and will have more to share soon.
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Stock dropping because Jensen resigned is idiotic. He's been a fine CEO, but the reason nVidia is one of the world's most valuable companies is because they were an established incumbent when GPUs became the new oil. That's still their business.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
The gaps here are not all that large in the scheme of things but people who can’t tell the truth about it aren’t good people to entrust with power over complicated policy questions or political strategy.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
The dictum that punishment should be proportional to the crime is not established only for the sake of fairness and mercy, but also this: To NOT teach transgressors that, since any transgression--no matter how small--merits maximum punishment, might as well go whole hog
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
If a billionaire figures out how to build houses for half the price, I want him building millions of them. If your first concern is how rich that would make him or how much inequality that would create, then we have very different housing priorities.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
I think prisons should be safe, actually. If you want rapists to receive corporal punishment then change the law. Outsourcing punishment to random violence in prisons is morally and practically wrong, as well as cowardly.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
One option is to not get a PhD if the pay isn't where you want it to be.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Ideas that sound good but have repeatedly backfired: - Rent control (reduces supply and raises rents) - Price controls (leads to rationing) - Home loan subsidies (increases defaults and causes market crashes) - Extremely progressive tax brackets (high earners have much higher income variance, sometimes going negative, so a bad year leads to massive budget shortfalls and debt) - High capital gains taxes (too many investments fall below the zero-risk return rate, stalling the economy) - Increasing the money supply (compounding inflation decreases purchasing power) Indisputable economic and historical evidence shows these policies do not work. Yet politicians who know this keep promising them, and voters keep falling for it. I can’t blame educators or the media, as even they tell voters these policies do not work. What’s the solution? I don’t believe in making people pass an Econ test to vote, but how many times do we let them drive into a wall?
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Attention all companies: I never want to use your AI assistant on your website. I want to use *my* AI assistant on your website
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Yes. Hasan Piker's father, Mehmet Piker, was on the board and the VP of Sabanci Holding, a Turkish financial conglomerate that profited from the Armenian Genocide.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Replying to @Zuasibel
@douglas_ja19003 taught me the phrase 'gish galloping' which means throwing so many accusations that there isn't word space to answer all of them.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
1/ Re the genocide libel: I notice it's usually proffered as a subordinate clause, as in 'Because of the genocide,' 'In view of the genocide,' 'During the genocide...' The purpose is to establish it as a quasi fact. Compare, 'Due to the drought, there is a shortage of water.'
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Pass BAAJA now.
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
Going with the baby isn’t obviously less problematic. It’s all very hard. And recognizing that you are operating within constraints means that you’re an adult. Denying that constraints exist is childish nonsense, not elevated moral reasoning.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The excerpt is from Dario Amodei's 2010 GiveWell guest post as a Princeton physics grad student; he donated the $10k to VillageReach (child vaccines) and described the critical analysis as emotionally taxing. blog.givewell.org/2010/06/03/my-… nytimes.com/2026/11/05/tec…
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Blue Pog Democrat 🔰 retweeted
kinda feel bad for election conspiracy theorists who think it’s all rigged, because one of my favorite things about elections is the sudden, piercing clarity about the political state of play. you win or you lose. the voters wanted you or they didn’t. the great national reckoning.
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