Recession Tracker is Elevated, and the 10-year hit home Monday. It rose 6 bp to 5.15%, and NAHB builder confidence fell to 29, its lowest since June 2012 (32 expected). Junk spreads are 20 bp wider in a week at 331 bps, while claims (199K) and the yield curve still aren’t flashing recession. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

RT has been Elevated for about a week now, and today’s split shows why it’s hard to read. Consumer sentiment is at 46.3, just 1.5 points above May’s record low, yet jobless claims were 199K, the 5th straight week under 200K. The curve is still positive and the Sahm Rule is at 0.00, but junk spreads at 325 bps and VIX at 19.99 are leaning the wrong way. UMich’s final October read lands Friday. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Recession Tracker moves up a band: Moderate → Elevated. Pressure is building in credit (HY 316 bps) and consumer sentiment (46.3), but jobless claims printed 199K, a 5th straight week under 200K. Risk steps up. Layoffs don’t. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

RT just moved to ELEVATED! Recession risk just moved up a band: RT is now Elevated, 11 of 21 indicators off green. FRA-OIS, HY spreads and MOVE are all on watch. Half the board is lit. Want to see the next one flip before the news does? Get RT on your phone. @RecessionTrackr Download here today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Gas is doing the heavy lifting. September CPI ran 3.7% y/y (up from 3.4%), and gasoline’s 9.1% monthly jump drove more than half of the gain. Core was a cooler 2.6%. The curve is still positive and claims are still under 200K, so the pressure is landing on the Fed ahead of Oct 28, not on jobs. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

September CPI: +0.6% on the month, 3.7% y/y (vs 3.6% est.), core 2.6%. Gasoline (+9.1%) did about half the work, and yields jumped on the print. Recession risk is still Moderate, with a positive curve, VIX at 15 and HY spreads at 311 bps, but a hot print firms up the case for a December hike. Per CNBC/BLS. @RecessionTrackr Dowload the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Junk keeps leaning wider: high-yield spreads are at 315 bps, up 47 bps since Sep 22 and back above 300. It’s the only top-tier signal on Watch. The yield curve (2s/10s +0.44), jobless claims (197K) and the Sahm Rule are all still green, and the VIX is calm at 15. Risk band holds at Moderate. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Rates say 2002. Layoffs say not yet. The 10-year closed at 5.22% Thursday, still near its highest levels since 2002, while initial jobless claims fell to 197K: the 4th straight week under 200K and the lowest since July. Recession risk stays Moderate; the bond market is loud, but the labor data hasn’t followed. @RecessionTrackr Dowload the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

The 10-year touched 5.35% yesterday, its highest since 2002, then a solid $39B auction found buyers and it settled at 5.28%. Rates are high, but the market is still absorbing them: the curve stays positive (3M/10Y +1.06), VIX is calm at 15.1, and HY spreads are just above 300 bps. Recession risk holds at Moderate, but rising... @RecessionTrackr Dowload the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Two peaks, one market: the S&P 500 just notched its first close above 7,800 while the 10-year yield sits near 5.3%, its highest since 2002. Junk spreads are holding around 312 bps, the curve is still positive and jobless claims are at 197K. Risk stays Moderate. The soft spots are survey data like consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Credit exhaled: high-yield spreads tightened 14 bps to 310 on Oct 2, the first real pullback after a two-week, 58 bp widening. Rates didn't follow. The 10-year closed Monday near 5.32%, a fresh 52-week high, and the curve steepened. ISM services held at 54.9, VIX is 15.3 and claims are low. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Junk-bond spreads have widened 58 bps in ten days, to 324 bps, their widest since April. Stocks don't seem to care: the VIX closed Friday at a calm 15.3. Credit usually notices trouble first, but investment-grade spreads (84 bps) and jobless claims (197K) still look fine. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Hiring stalls. September payrolls came in at +29K vs. +84K expected, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and July was revised to −10K. Layoffs aren't the problem: claims sit at 197K. Companies have just stopped adding. Recession Tracker stays Moderate: labor is cooling, but the Sahm Rule is still well short of its trigger. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

The yield curve keeps opening up: 2s/10s is +0.46, up from +0.31 a week ago, as the 10-year climbs to 5.29% while the 2-year drifts lower. 3M-10Y is +1.07, so there's no inversion signal. Risk still reads Moderate, though high-yield spreads are up to 312 bps from 280 last week. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Credit blinked, barely. High-yield spreads crossed the 300 bps line (302) while the 10-year sits at 5.26% and the 2s/10s curve stays positive at +0.37. Claims (197K) and VIX (~16) are still calm. Rates doing the shouting. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Consumers are losing their nerve. Conference Board confidence fell 6.7 pts to 81.9 in September, and the expectations index slid to 63.6 for its third straight drop. Meanwhile jobless claims sit at just 197K and the curve keeps steepening (2s/10s +0.37). The mood is recession, the labor data isn't. Claims, ISM and payrolls decide who's right this week. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

The 10-year hit 5.21% Monday, highest since 2007. The curve's still positive, but HY spreads crept to 293bp and UMich sentiment sits at a record-low 48.1. Rates broke out, recession signals haven't. Yet. @RecessionTrackr Upload the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

"Something always breaks." Per CNBC, 22V's John Roque found every rapid run-up in the 10-year since 1970 has ended in some kind of financial accident, and the 10-year just closed Friday at 5.17%, a 2007-era high (trading near 5.21% this morning). So far the usual first cracks are quiet: high-yield spreads are ~268 bps, VIX is under 15, and the curve is still positive. Regional banks are the ones to watch. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Rates just broke out. The 10-year closed at 5.11% (FRED), its highest close since 2007, and per CNBC the 30-year touched ~5.44%, a 2004 high, with FedWatch now pricing a >75% chance of an October hike. The recession signals haven't followed: the 3M–10Y curve steepened to +0.94%, HY spreads sit at 268 bp and the VIX is 14. Risk stays Moderate, for now. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…

Bond traders have made up their minds: markets now price ~75% odds of another 25 bp Fed hike in October, and better-than-even odds for December. The 30-year just cleared 5.44% (highest since 2004) as oil and record diesel keep inflation front and center. Credit spreads (268 bps) and jobless claims (196K) still aren't flinching, so risk stays Moderate...for now. @RecessionTrackr Download the app today - apps.apple.com/us/app/recess…