Multi-strategy fund built on the principle of reinvention. Combining macro investing with quantitative research to pursue durable long-term returns
Joined July 2023
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Everyone who thinks we are in a market top is dead wrong, Goldman even knows we are about to rip because of the macro regime we are in. Weak hands will be washed out, and they’ll have to chase later on.
Rebirth Capital retweeted
Crazy to think about how Trump could’ve had one of the most successful and popular presidential terms in modern American history… and they completely punted it.
He was elected by a historic coalition and was the first Republican to win the popular vote in decades because of two issues: inflation and illegal immigration.
Inflation was already falling after the Covid and Biden era spending. All he had to do was close the border, conduct mass deportations, and let the economy/AI cook while pushing through deregulation.
Instead, after explicitly running on ending foreign wars, he immediately started a war with Iran which has taken over the entire term. Inflation, energy prices and mortgage rates have all climbed and are heading in the wrong direction. His approval is at an all-time low. He sacrificed his own domestic agenda for a war in the Middle East alongside Israel.
Republicans are now going to lose the House, possibly the Senate, and the next 2 years will be nothing but DC gridlock and investigations. The odds of handing America to the far-left in 2028 have also dramatically increased.
Big wins, small wins, small loses, big losses
The one you have to get rid of here to make it as an investor/trader is the big losses
With the other three you can attain success
Here I laid out the whole picture for equities and what it would take for us to make new highs
I also shared my thesis for my $META trade at the beginning of the month
Article is free
New stack post from us, it is free for everyone
We go very in depth with our research process and even give an example of how we used our framework on our postion of $META
link: rebirthcapital.substack.com/…
10Y confirmed for 5% on Monday open
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Rebirth Capital retweeted
Bessent: “Look, if some of the Bloomberg Terminal bros are unhappy with what I’m doing, well, that’s too bad.”
Will Warsh hike this month?
No he will not, this is a great spot to add exposure
Even with the 10Y nearing 5%
New stack post from us, it is free for everyone
We go very in depth with our research process and even give an example of how we used our framework on our postion of $META
link: rebirthcapital.substack.com/…
The market is starting to realize the AI spending $META is doing is actually bullish not bearish
I too would spend over $10B if it leads to the core business model being the best it’s ever been
$META when no one wanted it at the 550s now they will have to own it in the 1000s
Now the market is reacting heavily to the name today despite the PCE print because of settlement of the social media addiction trial
People don’t realize that, the AI spend Zuck is doing will drive ad revenue by nearly 20%
We deployed capital into the $600 calls for September 9th & March 19th 2027 dates
Maybe today is the day $META crosses $600
And we start seeing some heavy activity start building back up to the $700
$META when no one wanted it at the 550s now they will have to own it in the 1000s
Now the market is reacting heavily to the name today despite the PCE print because of settlement of the social media addiction trial
People don’t realize that, the AI spend Zuck is doing will drive ad revenue by nearly 20%
We deployed capital into the $600 calls for September 9th & March 19th 2027 dates
Real test here while 10Y still rallying can tech catch a bid ?
$MU looking for $1000 today big area of positioning due to options open interest
Rebirth Capital retweeted
The next rally in bitcoin:native is upon us
hyperliquid:native is really going to create some generational wealth during this mega bull run
Goldilocks in full effect, Fed deficit keeps growing more negative which makes easing even more euphoric
Market will see Warsh will not hike any rates this year
$MU heavy buying happening at EOD
$MU illustrates one way I think about the macro environment
10y and 30y yields are still high which should be bearish for duration, but MU has been outperforming semis
This suggests the market is distinguishing between actual demand for memory and broad-based beta
If yields start to decline, that could take away a drag on MU and potentially allow for further upside
$MU illustrates one way I think about the macro environment
10y and 30y yields are still high which should be bearish for duration, but MU has been outperforming semis
This suggests the market is distinguishing between actual demand for memory and broad-based beta
If yields start to decline, that could take away a drag on MU and potentially allow for further upside
**taps sign**
$BTC +6.30% today
Time to make Crypto great again & create Euphoria
hyperliquid:native +6.52%
We called the start of a new bull run 3D ago
The next rally in bitcoin:native is upon us
hyperliquid:native is really going to create some generational wealth during this mega bull run
Goldilocks in full effect, Fed deficit keeps growing more negative which makes easing even more euphoric
Market will see Warsh will not hike any rates this year