Anonymous Economist/Market Analyst
Joined March 2021
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- Followers217
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Dan retweeted
Europe & Canada have been importing Chinese goods & exporting them to the US as a way to balance their trade
By cutting off exports, US is forcing them to sell off reserves which include Dollars, gold & Treasuries
Lower the reserves, less a nation can borrow
The 1929 playbook
Dan retweeted
I don't think people fully appreciate the genius of it. They caused a massive inflationary cycle as cover for the quickest rate raises in 50yrs
Combined with AI & Dollar shortage, it will cause a deflationary depression allowing them to print & take Treasuries out of circulation
Dan retweeted
The Fourth Turning is here. And with Charlie Kirk’s tragic killing, we see its violence firsthand. demographyunplugged.com/p/ep…
Dan retweeted
The GSEs already own the loans and issue the MBS, so there is no point in holding MBS. My guess is that the GSEs explicitly retain their #MSR or @POTUS needs to get Congress to repeal the 10bp mortgage tax.... | nationalmortgagenews.com/opi… – at Briarcliff Manor, NY
Dan retweeted
Signs abound that Q4 could be a real drag. What’s on the horizon for housing?
If rates stay at these levels or go lower we could see inventory grow non-seasonally just as we did last year...and price cuts accelerate
Plus a deep dive into Sin City
👇
m3melody.substack.com/p/a-fu…
Dan retweeted
Joe Rogan: "One thing that I learned during COVID... This whole 'trust the experts' thing, suck my d*ck. There's a lot of these people that are full of sh*t, and bought and paid for."
Dan retweeted
Trump: I want no more property taxes across the United States
#MacroEdge
Dan retweeted
For a long time now I've been posting "Supply Is Coming"
Think it's time to switch that to "Lower Prices Are Coming"
No one is buying new homes that are under construction or permitted.
Months of supply for both is sitting between 15-20 months, which is basically the highest on record.
Meanwhile - completed spec houses have a decent sales pace of 3.6 months.
Meaning extremely weak demand in the future for builders. Any short-term success on sales is simply being driven by having lots of completed inventory and giving mortgage rates buy downs/cutting prices on completed homes.
The long-term outlook, measured by sales pace for Under Construction/Permitted, says demand is fundamentally weak.
And that the Housing market will continue to get cheaper. (which is good news for buyers)
Dan retweeted
Impact of #SLR change will be marginal. The change is in process now, according to my peeps at @USTreasury Given weak loan demand and bank yields and deposit rates falling since last year, banks are looking for risk-free alternatives < 5 yrs...
Dan retweeted
“In 2024, just under 11% of all homes sold in the U.S. came from real estate investors, the highest share in the data's history going back to 2001”
Motivated selling
Dan retweeted
Demand at Japan’s 30-year bond auction was weaker than the average over the past year, adding to concerns over rising yields globally bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Dan retweeted
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds doubled the pace of their gold purchases in the past three years. They just aren’t declaring them. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Dan retweeted
Hey... recession :)
Wow!
The U.S. #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2025 is 4.6%
The nowcasts of second quarter real personal consumption expenditure growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3% and -1.4%, respectively, to 4.0% and 0.5%.
Dan retweeted
The Bank of Japan will probably decide to stop reducing the amount of its government bond purchases in a plan for next fiscal year when authorities gather this month, according to a former BOJ board member. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Dan retweeted
This market is 95% equity peeps. No idea about bonds or credit. Media that cover housing have no idea about TBAs or MSRs. Zero. Defaults and the end of the age of plenty will require more knowledge.... – at Briarcliff Manor, NY
Dan retweeted
200 likes and 75 reposts, and I will get my computers set up and do a #btc and market update today!
Dan retweeted
Yellen has told the TBAAc it will be bills. That cash either comes from banks or MMFs. With the Fed still tightening, it is likely to be the banks (MMFs want to stay overnight). The distribution of funding among banks is uncertain. More failures are possible and even likely.
