John Mearsheimer is one of the famous russian propagandists who apparently knows nothing about russia. The man didn’t even know that American credit cards don’t work in russia and yet he knows that “russia will hold all of Donbas by year's end.” How can an educated person be so ignorant? First, being educated and being smart are two very different things. Mearsheimer is educated, but he certainly is not smart. Second, a smart person would learn from their own mistakes. Mearsheimer doesn't. He has been making versions of this prediction for four years. In February 2024, he told Global Times - a Chinese state outlet, which tells you something about the audience he prefers - that the actual fighting would not last beyond 2025, that russia would take more territory, and that there would be a ceasefire. It is now September 2026, and he still hasn't learned his lesson. Third, Mearsheimer knows nothing about Ukraine or the Ukrainian people. I doubt he has ever even visited Ukraine in his life. This matters because wars are won by people, not by terrain. Terrain does not hold Slovyansk for four years. When your model has no variable for a people's will, you don't make occasional mistakes - you make the same mistake every time. Finally, people like Mearsheimer should be held accountable for their predictions. Mark the date. Check it again in December to see whether his claim still holds: "russia will control all of Donbas by year's end.” Mearsheimer is just another brainwashed vatnik masquerading as an expert.