I spent much of my career managing money for wealthy families. The same mistake kept repeating: build wealth for decades, then hand heirs a lump sum. My new essay is about a better model for preserving a family legacy across generations.

I’m devastated to sell $SNDK today. I’ve been hanging on because I still believe in the memory story, but my economic slowdown indicators are screaming now. High real rates and the oil price spike are colliding with continued backwardation, consumer stress, and mounting stress around AI. I can’t ignore that backdrop simply because I’m attached to a position. Valuation discipline is insanely important during these periods. SNDK hasn’t been an underperformer, but at this price, I simply don’t see enough asymmetry to justify continuing to hold it. I’m still trying to hold on to $MU, where the fundamentals look stronger to me, but even there I have to keep evaluating what I’m paying for the upside. Meanwhile, I can’t turn away from energy companies generating immense profits today, particularly alongside my view that oil could reach $250 a barrel. That outcome is a possibility, not a requirement for owning them. When I compare the cash they’re producing with the upside I believe remains, keeping that capital in SNDK becomes harder to justify, however much I hate selling it.

I'm going to scream this to the moon tonight. You cannot own things that can be replaced overnight. Own cash-flow-generating businesses with physical infrastructure moats that AI cannot simply replicate. #energy is increasingly where the scarcity, pricing power, and durable cash flows will reside. AI can make intelligence abundant. It cannot make energy abundant overnight. Thanks for attending my TED Talk.

Why We Bought Suncor While the Mob Chases AI Nearly 50% of our portfolio is now exposed to the energy complex through oil production, refining, crude transportation, tanker shipping and direct oil exposure through $USO. Our newest position is Suncor Energy ($SU). Frankly, I find it astonishing how fixated the investing mob remains on AI. Nearly every conversation revolves around the same handful of technology companies, their valuations and how much further the AI trade can run. Meanwhile, some of the strongest fundamental opportunities we have identified are in the businesses producing, refining and transporting the energy the global economy still depends on. I remain extraordinarily bullish on artificial intelligence. I simply do not believe that being bullish on AI requires paying extraordinary valuations for the same companies everyone else owns. In fact, the more powerful AI becomes, the more absurd it seems to ignore the physical infrastructure and energy systems required to power an increasingly energy-hungry economy. That brings me to Suncor. Unlike shale producers that must continually drill new wells to offset steep production declines, Suncor controls enormous, long-lived Canadian oil-sands reserves. Much of the infrastructure required to produce those reserves is already in place, and production can continue for decades. Oil sands are capital-intensive. But that is precisely why the economics become so attractive when oil prices rise sustainably. With much of the fixed infrastructure already built, higher realized oil prices can translate into disproportionately larger increases in operating cash flow. Suncor also operates a substantial refining business, giving us exposure to another part of the energy value chain where industry economics remain favorable. And this is not a speculative company promising profitability years from now. Suncor already generates substantial free cash flow, reduces debt and aggressively repurchases shares. That is the type of business I want to own. Our independent ranking systems have consistently identified refiners, energy producers and tanker operators as areas of exceptional fundamental strength. This signal has persisted for months. The stocks have appreciated substantially, but the underlying fundamentals remain remarkably favorable. I believe we are entering a prolonged period of structurally higher oil prices and constrained refined-product supplies. Years of underinvestment, limited refining-capacity growth and geopolitical instability cannot be resolved overnight. If oil prices remain elevated—or rise substantially, as I expect—the cash-flow implications for businesses such as Suncor could be enormous. Is the portfolio concentrated? Absolutely. But diversification for its own sake has never been my investment philosophy. When independently developed methodologies repeatedly identify exceptional strength in the same industries, I pay attention. The investing mob can continue fighting over the same crowded AI stocks. We will own the businesses producing, refining and transporting the energy that makes the entire economy—including AI—possible. Follow our holdings, trades and performance: savvytrader.com/smadan75/bt-…

Garbage like this is why you have to do the work yourself or follow trusted, experienced professionals.

I can’t find a single documented instance before 1945 of someone aged 25 or younger mass-murdering children at a school. Not one. School violence isn’t new. Mass murder isn’t new. But young people massacring schoolchildren appears to be a distinctly modern phenomenon. Why?

Not as low as we've ever seen, but October has definitely been painful for growth investors. Enough so, that I think private valuations need to be reassessed.

Very funny.

Energy would like to have a word....

Today definitely felt like margin calls across the AI trade. I can’t imagine fundamental investors willingly selling memory stocks like $MU here or hardware names like $HPE. A thesis can be right while the companies are wrong. The companies can be right while the position sizing is wrong. And even when the thesis and the companies are both right, poor risk management can still make you lose money.

Why We're Still Buying Refiners After a Massive Rally. Today, I sold one of our portfolio holdings and replaced it with Marathon Petroleum ($MPC), further increasing our exposure to refiners. The logical question is: why add to a sector that's already had such a substantial run? A couple of reasons. First, refiners continue to exhibit the strongest fundamental consensus across our investment models. Despite the rally, the signals haven't deteriorated. In fact, refining remains the most compelling area of the market according to our process. Second, valuations are still reasonable if you believe, as I do, that the global fuel supply situation will remain acute for longer than the market has historically been accustomed to. Refining capacity constraints don't disappear overnight, and sustained favorable margins can support earnings and cash flows well beyond what traditional cyclical assumptions might suggest. Is the opportunity as asymmetric as it was several months ago? No. We've already captured a substantial move, and expectations have understandably adjusted. But is refining still among the most attractive areas of the equity market? I believe so. I'm not going to abandon a successful investment thesis simply because the stocks have appreciated, particularly when the fundamental evidence continues to support it. We follow the evidence, and for now, it continues to favor refiners. For a look at my other holdings in the refining sector, follow me here on Substack or on X, where I share portfolio updates and investment commentary.

This wasn't a hard one to analyze. $PBF

The best way for a man to lower his mortality risk is to have a ton of sex. Preferably with a hot woman. This may or may not involve Cialis.

$MU and SNDK 👇🏼