BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US and Iran have reportedly agreed to a deal to end the war, per Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. The deal was mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, and reportedly includes confidential IAEA inspections and a partial return of Iran's frozen funds.

BREAKING: JPMorgan now expects Bitcoin to outperform every major asset class over the next 10 years in its base case. It is the first time the bank has put a 10-year return projection on BTC. JPMorgan says Bitcoin could hit $386,000 in 10 years in a bull case. Its base case is 10% a year from $83,000, about $215,000. That is higher than US stocks (7.5%), US bonds (5.6%), gold (5.5%) and private equity (9.8%).

🚨 EVERYTHING THAT COULD GO WRONG IS HAPPENING IN FRANCE RIGHT NOW. France is facing violent nationwide unrest, a growing debt crisis, rising inflation, and government borrowing costs approaching their highest levels in 24 years. The situation has become so serious that President Macron has held emergency crisis meetings, while Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has warned that a state of emergency could be declared if necessary. At least 2,400 people have been arrested following violent riots across Paris, Marseille, Lyon and other cities. Thousands of businesses have been damaged, shops have been looted, public buildings have been set on fire, and nearly 1,000 security officers have reportedly been injured. Macron condemned the violence, promised tougher action against rioters, and warned that authorities could ban certain gatherings. The government is now introducing localized curfews, while opposition politicians are demanding a nationwide state of emergency. The unrest started amid growing anger over living costs, education and deteriorating public services. And the economic situation explains why public anger has become so serious. France's annual inflation jumped from 2.4% in August to 3.1% in September, while energy inflation reached 21.3%. The economy contracted 0.2% in Q1, recorded zero growth in Q2, and is estimated to have grown just 0.1% in Q3. Unemployment has reached 8.3%, household purchasing power is falling, and more than 70,000 businesses have failed over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the government is dealing with a much bigger financial problem. France's public debt has reached nearly €3.6 TRILLION, equivalent to 119% of GDP. Debt increased by more than €135 billion in just the first six months of 2026. Government spending already accounts for 57.2% of GDP, while the public deficit stood at 5.1% in 2025. France needs to reduce spending and bring its deficit under control, but those measures are becoming much harder to implement. People are already protesting over living costs and public services, while the government needs to make difficult budget decisions to stop its debt from growing even faster. The unrest is also creating fresh uncertainty just as the government needs parliamentary support for its next budget. And investors are responding to France's financial problems. The country's 10-year government bond yield climbed to 4.9% today, approaching levels last seen in 2002. The spread over German bonds has widened to around 145 basis points, reflecting the higher borrowing costs investors are demanding from France. Higher yields mean the government will have to pay more when issuing new debt and refinancing existing obligations. France's state debt service costs are projected to jump from €62.6 billion in 2026 to €72.9 billion in 2027. That's an additional €10.3 billion in just one year, at a time when the government is already struggling to control its deficit. And the pressure could increase further. Moody's currently has a negative outlook on France, with another credit-rating review scheduled for October 23. If investors lose more confidence in France's ability to control its finances, borrowing costs could rise further, putting additional pressure on banks, businesses, households and government spending. France now needs to restore public order, respond to demands for better living conditions, reduce its deficit and convince bond investors that its debt is manageable. But the measures needed to fix its finances could also increase public anger and make the political situation even harder to control.

Kevin Warsh just spoke at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. Here are the most important things he said: 1. He refused to signal whether the Fed will raise interest rates again at its October 27–28 meeting. 2. He said the Fed will assess the situation at its October and December meetings before deciding its next moves. 3. He defended September's rate hike as necessary to deliver price stability and reduce monetary accommodation. 4. Warsh gave no assurance that the Fed is done raising interest rates this year. 5. Described AI as potentially the most consequential change to the US and global economies. 6. He warned that AI's short-term impact on employment remains uncertain. 7. He said the transition to a more productive economy driven by AI could be bumpy. 8. Warsh highlighted how the AI boom is driving investment and creating price pressures. His remarks came after US inflation data came in higher than expected, keeping the possibility of another rate hike in focus.

THIS IS INSANE Bitcoin remains strong at $80,000 despite a series of bad news. 1. US Inflation is soaring, nearly double the Fed’s target of 2%. 2. The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps in September meeting and remains hawkish. 3. Top crypto researcher, Justin Drake warned AI could break cryptography protecting funds in wallets. 4. The US government moved $1.3 Billion in seized BTC, sparking selloff fears. 5. The US-Iran conflict keeps oil above $95. 6. The Dollar Index hit its highest level in 17 months. Earlier when tech stocks fell in past cycles, crypto crashed much harder. This time crypto holding strong.