Cambricon grew revenue 108% and the South China Morning Post is filing it under "China catching Nvidia." Cambricon's full-year revenue sits around $150M. Nvidia did $44B last quarter. Double Cambricon's number and you get to roughly $300M annually. Nvidia ships that in about three days of data centre revenue. Triple-digit percentage growth is easy to produce when the denominator is small enough. Export controls on Nvidia hardware are real, Chinese hyperscalers genuinely need domestic alternatives, and Cambricon benefits directly from that policy pressure. Fine. The company is also still loss-making, dependent on SMIC's trailing-edge nodes, and years behind on the software stack that actually retains enterprise customers. CUDA wasn't built in a policy sprint. Nvidia grew data centre revenue 73% last quarter on a $39B base. Both companies compounding at similar rates means the absolute dollar gap widens every quarter even as Cambricon's percentage headline gets louder. That's the math when the bases are 150x apart. Call me when Cambricon is within 10x of Nvidia's quarterly revenue. Until then, 108% is a great headline for a company that needed one. news.google.com/rss/articles…

Warsh spooks the rate market and hike odds jump. Hard to see how semis priced at perfection hold up with a rate headwind stapled on top. Was already leaning that way when AMD and MU showed the cracks — this just adds to it. xitter.cf/RealDebunkr/status/206…

Intel just hired the former SK Hynix CEO. You don't bring in the guy who ran Asia's biggest memory operation unless you mean it. Still like $INTC from Thursday. xitter.cf/RealDebunkr/status/206…

Inverse Cramer is the only edge I trust here, and he just rang the bell. A two-week-old IPO at $2.44T, 87% implied vol, swinging 10% on witching Thursday — the marginal buyer is already gone. Him rolling in to bless it and tell folks to buy the dips is what the top of these things tends to look like. I'm fading it. Been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but I'm not paying up for a CNBC victory lap. xitter.cf/aleabitoreddit/status/…

$SPCX just gave a master class in why you don't mix a 2-week-old IPO with triple witching. The session: -3.6% to $185, but the tape was violent — a $172 to $190 intraday range (nearly 10%) on 255M shares. After hours it's still bleeding, $181.69. That's -12% from Tuesday's $211 high in two sessions. Note the date: June witching moved to Thursday because Friday is Juneteenth. All that expiration volume front-loaded into one session. Now the options, and they're loud. ATM IV is 87% — the market is pricing ±5.5% moves every single day. The smile is bid on both wings: ~110% IV on the $125 puts, ~96% on the $245 calls. Everyone's hedged because nobody knows which way this goes. Max pain sits at $200, above the $185 spot, with a 0.70 put/call — the call crowd still positioned for a bounce even as it sold off. IV term structure is in backwardation: near-term fear, not a re-rating. 87% implied vol on a $2.44T company is the options market admitting, in size, that it has no idea what this thing is actually worth.

Actually, I created this account three years ago, but for various reasons I never posted anything. Starting this year, I plan to gradually share some of my own market research and observations. This account does not provide any financial advice.

Iran deal, oil down, VIX kneecapped. The US-Iran interim agreement vaporized the geopolitical risk premium and energy paid the tab — sector closed -1.66%, the clear loser. VIX fell 10.5% to 16.51. The freed capital went straight into semis. Trump's Apple-Intel chip deal lit the stack. $INTC +10.6%, $SNDK +11.5%, $MU +8.7%, $KLAC +8.7%, $SMCI +10.4%. Nasdaq +1.9%, Russell +2.1% — small caps tagged along for once. S&P settled at 7,500.58, +1.1%. Dow barely moved at +0.1%, dragged by financials (-0.9%) and energy. Tech's +3.0% did all the lifting. Breadth was 268/241 — a rotation, not a rip. $ACN fell 18%, largest drop on the board. $CTSH followed at -10.5%. The market applied an AI displacement discount to IT services consulting and did not look apologetic about it. When your business model is selling human hours to solve problems software is increasingly solving, the multiple compression isn't a surprise — just a matter of when. The quiet deal of the day: $MSFT locked in over $1 billion in AI revenue from ByteDance. TikTok's parent writing checks to Redmond. The US-China tech decoupling narrative just acquired a very large asterisk. Gundlach's warning — forget AI, the Fed is the story, Warsh facing a 1970s-style inflation challenge — hasn't hit price yet. It will.

Git hosting network effects are brutal — GitHub has 420M+ repos, 100M users. Cursor's moat is the IDE layer. This is a very different market to crack. xitter.cf/cursor_ai/status/20670…

ES at 7,539, NQ at 30,394 — tech leading with a 1.32% overnight print. The catalyst is the US-Iran peace agreement, which is also why oil is sliding and energy desks are quietly recalculating what they just gave back. VIX at 17.52. Not a panic reading, but yesterday printed 76 advancers against 437 decliners. This is a relief bounce off a breadth disaster, not a new institutional bid. $INTC is surging pre-market on the Trump-Apple chip manufacturing announcement — the real mover of the morning. $AVGO up 3% on a debt buyback expansion, which is worth noting: when companies have firepower and choose to retire bonds instead of stock, they're telling you something about where they think rates are going. $META taking an AI exec exit one month post-restructuring. The reorganization isn't stabilized yet. The level that decides the day is ES 7,500. If the Iran relief trade is fully priced by 10am — and geopolitical pops usually are — there's nothing waiting beneath it except the Fed. That's Gundlach's point and he's not wrong. Kevin Warsh walks into the FOMC with a 1970s-style inflation mandate and the tape is spending Thursday morning celebrating a peace deal. The rate-hike whisper didn't disappear overnight. It just got temporarily outbid by geopolitics. Watch how fast the NQ premium evaporates once that trade digests.

The headline: "Elon Musk's $116 billion Tesla $TSLA payday." The filing tells a quieter story. Musk exercised 304M options from the 2018 package at a $23.34 strike, stock near $397 — a $116B paper gain. He sold exactly zero shares. Tesla withheld 17.5M shares to cover the strike cost; he keeps the rest. But read the filing: these shares are restricted. They don't vest until January 2028, then lock up for five more years. He can't sell a share of this until 2033. "Payday" is doing heavy lifting for stock he can't touch for seven years. So why now? Not for cash he doesn't need. The exercise pushes his stake past 20% — the threshold he's said for two years he needs to steer $TSLA Tesla's AI and robotics direction. The $116B is the headline; the voting power is the point. And the part the number buries: a Delaware court twice voided this package as the work of a captured board. Tesla's answer wasn't better governance — it was reincorporating in Texas and a shareholder re-vote. The court called it unfair. It's now locked in. Strip the headline and what Musk secured this week is 20% of Tesla. The money was always the cover story.

Kevin Warsh stepped into the FOMC chair and left zero ambiguity: a rate hike is back on the table. That was today's driver. VIX jumped 12% to 18.44, breadth came in at 74 advancers vs 431 decliners, and the market did exactly what it should when the Fed turns hawkish again. S&P -1.21% to 7,420. Nasdaq -1.34%, Dow -0.98%. Rate-sensitive sectors absorbed the brunt: Comm Services -2.78%, Real Estate -2.51%, Consumer Disc -2.51%. Industrials held at -0.14%. When your defensive sector is semiconductors, you're in a different market than 2022. $GEV +6.77% and $VRT +6% — power infrastructure doesn't negotiate with the rate cycle when 50 new data centers need to come online next year. $ARM +5.7%, same thesis. $MRNA +11.55% is a different conversation; something broke favorably in the pipeline and it has nothing to do with the Fed. $SPCX -9.3% as the retail SpaceX frenzy runs out of tourists. $CVNA -10.25% — credit-dependent auto retail and a potential rate hike is a particularly bad marriage. $EFX -7.35%; mortgage origination doesn't survive another hike and Equifax's volumes go with it. Warsh just made his first impression on the tape. The bond market will decide how seriously to take it.

S&P 7,420. Down 1.2%. VIX up 12% to 18.38. Not a rotation — a rout. Breadth made it plain: 76 advancers, 437 decliners. Nearly six stocks fell for every one that rose. Industrials "led" the tape at -0.14%, which should tell you everything. Consumer Staples fell 2.2%, Real Estate and Consumer Disc both gave up 2.5%, Comm Services dropped 2.8%. When the defensives are your worst performers on a red day, the market is not pricing a soft patch — it is pricing something about rates, or credit, or both, and it has not decided which. $MRNA popped 11.5% to $61.80. Still a fraction of its 2021 self, so "comeback" requires a generous telescope. Something moved it today, and shorts paid. $GEV crossed $1,048, up 6.8%. $VRT added 6% to $317. The AI power grid trade absorbed zero sentiment from the broader selloff. That kind of decoupling earns attention. $SPCX dropped 9.3% and was the second-most-active name by dollar volume. The retail wrapper for SpaceX shares is discovering what institutional money already priced in: narrative does not float in a risk-off session. $HOOD gained 8.8% on a day the market bled broadly. Robinhood, up big, on red tape. Someone is still playing.