ravenspurn.eth | sol | tez Part of the @AlphaXchange Full time Forex and Crypto Trader.
Norrbotten Sweden
Joined February 2022
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If a public official chooses to use a platform as a public communications channel, they should not be permitted to selectively exclude lawful criticism from that channel.
Democratic accountability does not end where digital communication begins. The same principles of openness, accessibility, and scrutiny that apply in physical public spaces should also apply in the digital sphere.
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We "the west" are headed into a new form of mercantilism.
We are witnessing the West aggressively restricting technology exports, whilst simultaneously scrambling to attract semiconductor manufacturers and acquire the rare earth elements for energy storage, strategic minerals for energy production, whilst implementing aggressive industrial subsidies for domestic production, data storage, and AI compute.
The people will be forced to make sacrifices.
The people need to realise that Energy is not just another sector of the economy, it is the input that every other sector depends upon, and you only need to look at the UK to see what external energy dependence looks like, and the subsequent sacrifices they are being forced to make as energy prices soar.
The West wants to simultaneously prioritise reindustrialisation; AI expansion; Datacentre autonomy; The electrification of transport and space heating; alongside Domestic manufacturing demanding higher environmental standards.
The current energy build out cannot support all of these goals simultaneously.
The question we need to ask is:
"Is there sufficient affordable surplus energy available to support all of these ambitions simultaneously?"
If the answer is no, the question becomes:
"Where will the energy come from, and who gets priority access?"
So... what will the people be expected to sacrifice?
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In the UK, millions are compelled into unremunerated care work.
Society benefits from it financially to the tune of the entire NHS budget, and thus it should be credited accordingly...
A remunerated carer, fire fighter, police officer, nurse, teacher, soldier, refuse collector, or other form of civil servant receives wages in return for their labour because society recognises that their work has economic value and compensates them accordingly.
If somebody has already contributed a substantial value to society by providing unremunerated care to a relative or partner that would otherwise have cost the state tens or even hundreds of thousands per annum, then they have effectively paid their social contribution through service have they not?
The state should not expect any form of taxation from their future earnings...
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We have had a fairly strong move over the weekend...
Let's see what happens during the Japanese session.
If Japan tightens (even verbally), JPY will strengthen, and USD will plummet with $USDJPY possibly finding near term support at 150-152.
Risk assets will pump like it's 2009 as the carry trades begin to unwind.
If Japan stays ultra loose, JPY will weaken, and USD will shoot up. Risk assets plummet as carry trades expand further, with $USDJPY pushing toward the next intervention zone at 160-164, and then to the 1974 low of 176.
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UK 30 Year Gilt Yields have just topped out today at 5,860%. This is the highest level since 1997/98!!
Mapping a 5,860% yield obligation onto the UK's existing obligations, gives a plausible 2026 yield obligation of £140 billion!!
This depends entirely on refinancing volume and maturity rollover, but it's a pretty good guess.
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Orthodox economic models describe industrial economies pretty well, especially those that favour secondary productivity with capital investment, technological improvement, and competition driving economic growth.
However, they do become progressively less explanatory as economies transition toward tertiary productivity and services dominated systems.
This is because they use instruments like financialisation of assets though credit creation used to expand the economy.
When monetary expansion and asset inflation become the primary mechanisms of wealth creation, investment capital increasingly flows toward existing assets rather than toward the creation of new productive capacity.
The economy shifts from producing globally scalable assets toward consuming globally produced goods and services.
The question... Where can capital achieve the highest risk adjusted return? becomes the driver of capital migration...
Essentially, if knowledge work can be performed remotely, and the global supply of educated labour expands dramatically, what justifies maintaining a high cost domestic knowledge workforce??
$GBP Traders have now fully priced in 50bps of BoE rate hikes by year end 2026, and 75bps of hikes by mid 2027.
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RPI is sitting at around 3,5% above CPI, where CPI understates inflation by excluding housing, effectively reporting only what consumers are purchasing, RPI understates by ignoring the monetary debasement that drives real living cost increases.
Debasement is money supply growth - real output growth, and in the west this adds around an additional 15% onto the inflation you are seeing in CPI.
So if the CPI is ca. 3%, RPI will be closer to 6,5%, and real inflation will be closer to 20-22%
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I am seeing a lot of banter about a £15 per hour minimum wage in the UK.
What will @ZackPolanski do about the circa 3 million full time unpaid carers unable to supplement their income and excluded from wage based support??
3 000 000 * 2080 * 15 = £94 billion per annum.
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Looking at our current levels of liquidity, I am still looking at $71k for the local level.
If this is not a 3 of 5 we are in, then I think $57k, and a push from there.
If we hit $89k, I am looking at $41k
#BTC @AlphaXchange
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