
I study energy markets, climate policy, and their effects on the economy. Professor @UCDavisEcon, former @DallasFed
California
Joined March 2020
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David Rapson retweeted
You’re 25x more likely to be a millionaire than be homeless in the US
Replying to @hasanthehun
everyone thinks for some reason that they are closer to becoming a millionaire than becoming homeless.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Recent polling shows a majority of US voters believe they are more likely to become homeless than a millionaire. US data show roughly 23.6 million millionaires versus ~746,000 experiencing homelessness on a given night.
dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/8/13…
investopedia.com/new-report-rev…
hud.gov/news/hud-no-26…
David Rapson retweeted
Six Nobel Prize-winning economists, and @gabriel_zucman, have endorsed California's proposed billionaire tax. But what do economists who actually specialize in taxation think?
I surveyed them to find out. Turns out they don't support it. 🧵
David Rapson retweeted
You need to think about the marginal, not the inframarginal.
(Plus the huge body of research that says taxes do matter for things like investment)
“The idea that Mark Zuckerberg was sitting in his Harvard dorm room and would have been deterred from starting Meta if the capital gains tax rate was slightly closer to the ordinary income tax rate strikes me as categorically absurd,” argues @NatashaRSarin, professor of law at Yale Law School.
Powell saw this coming, and it's one of the reasons he decided to stay through his term as a governor. President Trump has formed a committee to evaluate the mortgage-fraud allegations made against Fed governor Lisa Cook wsj.com/economy/central-bank… via @WSJ
David Rapson retweeted
Counterpoint:
sorry but socialism is the most effective form of altruism
currentaffairs.org/news/2022…
David Rapson retweeted
What puzzles me about French economists like Gabriel, as well as Emmanuel and Tomas, is the zeal they bring in trying to convince Americans that they have to implement a French model that is focused on redistribution rather than growth, because every indication we have suggests that the focus on redistribution has cost France, and some other countries in Europe, like my own native Belgium, very dearly so far. In fact, the French economy looks like it is about to enter a serious fiscal crisis because its redistribution model is no longer sustainable.
Californians ought to celebrate the fact that wealth is being created in California, and not somewhere else in the U.S. or in the rest of the world. Americans, and Californians, for that matter, should continue to do what they do best, which is focus on growing the pie. It would be a mistake to adopt a model that is fundamentally broken.
What the French should do instead is try to copy the model that made California an engine of innovation. In that case, smart, highly educated French kids wouldn't come to the U.S. to start companies. They would do so in France. If they had done that, they would have more than one AI startup company.
David Rapson retweeted
The Greg Clark Symposium - The fact that this monumental and challenging book–right or wrong–cannot find a major academic publisher is an intellectual scandal. marginalrevolution.com/margi…
David Rapson retweeted
It's shocking that one of the most empirically interesting historians working today couldn't find a publisher for his most recent book, despite the fact that his previous works in this vein were minor best sellers and award-winning works.
New on SteveSailer dot Net --
Gregory Clark’s new book: “To Have and Have Not”
The economic historian has posted online the final volume of his groundbreaking trilogy on heredity and environment because he can’t find an unwoke academic publisher.
stevesailer.net/p/gregory-cl…
David Rapson retweeted
Dear policymakers:
Don’t ask us to quantify the GHG effects of this bill. We don’t have the tools, and it wouldn't help you if we did because people who oppose it on climate grounds want ~zero additional fossil infrastructure.
So don’t ask us. BECAUSE WE WILL DO IT IF YOU ASK
David Rapson retweeted
Isn’t it quite the contrary? The universal energy playbook is for countries to maximize their reliance on the resources they have in abundance and can produce at scale. China has little choice but to build more solar and wind capacity while continuing to rely heavily on coal.
The US and China followed very different energy pathways.
The US became the world’s largest oil and gas producer. China became the largest low-emissions power generator.
There is no universal energy-security playbook. mck.co/aftershocks
“a federal tax would lessen risks related to capital flight”. True. As an individual state acting unilaterally, I would exercise an abundance of caution before FAFO-ing on this particular margin.
I want to briefly explain why I joined Abhijit Banerjee, Peter Diamond, Esther Duflo, Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz in signing the letter on the California billionaire tax: ft.com/content/94ec0fee-53ab…
In principle, I am not convinced that permanent wealth taxes would be necessary if the tax-transfer system were designed optimally.
But the US tax system is very far from optimal, and has been for decades. As I have documented in my research (for example, here: mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/…), labor income is taxed much more heavily than capital income.
This asymmetry creates two distinct problems.
First, it makes the tax system highly regressive at the top. The very rich, who receive much of their income from capital or can use accounting tricks to reclassify their income as capital income, pay remarkably little in taxes. For example, a business owner who runs their own company should receive a significant part of their income as labor earnings for their work as CEO. Instead, they can take their compensation in stock and borrow against those holdings to finance whatever consumption they desire, minimizing their tax obligations. Even their heirs may avoid paying these taxes.
Second, the asymmetry distorts automation decisions: it effectively subsidizes machinery and AI relative to hiring workers (for example, here: brookings.edu/articles/does-…).
These distortions have allowed a small number of people to amass vast fortunes without paying their fair share of taxes, and have fueled excessive automation.
The resulting inequality is a problem in its own right. It is all the more dangerous today because our institutions have become fragile, allowing the very wealthy to exert growing control over the political process.
A temporary wealth tax can therefore be justified on three grounds: (1) it partially reverses the effects of more than two decades of tax avoidance by the very wealthy; (2) it acts as a brake on their growing dominance over the political process; and (3) it may pave the way for more comprehensive tax reform at the federal level.
The California billionaire tax is not perfect. For example, a federal tax would lessen risks related to capital flight, and removing the rigid earmarking of the revenues for specific purposes would enable the proceeds to reduce the national debt. Nevertheless, with few other options on the table, I believe the California proposal deserves support.
David Rapson retweeted
If you ban diesel exports, this is what happens:
1) Without the overseas market, diesel inventories start to accumulate domestically. This temporarily puts downward pressure on wholesale prices in the US, likely more so in the Gulf Coast than anywhere else. HOWEVER
David Rapson retweeted
[I want to pull on this thread a bit further than in the earlier shitpost made while waking my dog.]
As I said earlier, no one who has lived in Canada, the US, and Europe could reasonably say that everyday life in Canada is more similar to life in Europe than life in America. But I also think there are many values and philosophical underpinnings of society in North America that Europe does not share.
1. The frontier: Wild places, adventure, and frontier life are integral to both countries’ national imaginations. The voyageurs, Lewis and Clark, Thoreau, Walden, John Muir (who lived in Canada in the 1860s, by the way).
2. Indigenous-settler relationship: Although there are lots of differences, the founding of both Canada and the US is inseparable from this relationship.
3. Immigration: Yes, there is massive immigration into Europe now (that is playing havoc with European nations' self-conceptions today), but historical immigration is foundational to both American and Canadian national identities.
4. Geography creates regional similarities that cross borders: Southern Ontario and the Great Lakes states are far more similar to each other than they are to either British Columbia or the Pacific Northwest.
David Rapson retweeted
This editorial is, of course, basically pleading with employers to stop regarding a UC degree as a signal of value. We have to get the people who see the world this way out of power before they destroy our incredible state university system.
David Rapson retweeted
On 9-11 and afterward Canada demonstrated that it was and is a great friend and ally of the United States. 🇺🇸🇨🇦







































