American hero.

If you don't know who @Petermarocco is - he is the DOGE administrator who actually ended USAID. We worked together. He's a grizzled veteran, tougher than nails, knows all the USAID bodies. He's not easy to shake. But I showed Pete the next clip I'm dropping tonight, and his reaction was "holy crap" followed by "Seriously, that tape is straight up coup" followed by a discussion of how to get the materials over to the DoJ. I'm working on getting this out in some publicly consumable format - I can't just mirror 250 GB of scraped data on my website (there are legality reasons). I'm also looking into sharing the data with media contacts.

🚨🚨THE DEMOCRACY FILES, PART 1: THE PLAN 🚨 I am working on gathering all the documents. Now, here's something to understand about the "democracy" and protest ecosystem: almost nobody knows the 'grand plan' so to speak. They simply agree to play a role. For example, 99% of people breaking stuff on the streets believe they're doing it out of an organic uprising. They don't see that the police have been ordered to stand down. They don't see that legal services have already been arranged for them. They don't see that foundations are paying for their bonds. Similarly here, governors aren't participating in a pact to destroy the Constitution. Governors simply have agreed to push back on the Insurrection Act. The effect is the same: the governors end up playing a role in a grander plan. I call this "shared epistemology" in my book Unelected. Motivations differ, people rarely agree to the big evil supervillain framing, but incentives all converge in the same end goal. No Kings might not agree to explicitly tear down the Constitution, but they nonetheless work with DSA and will turn out millions of people if the right phone call is put in. Here is one articulation of the plan - and crucially, since then, they have put many NGOs in their places to execute their proper role at all levels when the time is right. Many more coming.

🇺🇸🗳️ 17-Oct Nevada Early Voting Update: Day One, and Republicans Hold Their Own 🗳️ In-person early voting opened in Nevada today. After yesterday's North Carolina numbers, I was waiting to see if Nevada would follow. It kind of did... but it hurts Republicans a lot less, and here's why. Benchmark first: Nevada's 2024 early vote finished R+3.6 by party registration, and Trump won the state by 3.1. Day 1 in person (as of 6:28 PM PT): 🔴 R: 7,637 🔵 D: 7,616 🟡 Other: 3,660 That's essentially tied (R+0.1). Day 1 in 2024 was R+24.7. In-person is a large move toward Democrats, and no one should pretend otherwise. We want to see those numbers improve next week. The good news: In Nevada, in-person was already overwhelmingly red and it does not "hurt" us in the same way that NC's shift did. Nevada mails a ballot to every active voter, so mail is most of the early vote there. Right now it's about 58K mail ballots against 19K in person, roughly 3 to 1. 🔵 Mail now: D+1.9 🔵 Mail at the end of 2024 early voting: D+10.1 🔵 Mail at the end of 2022 early voting: D+12.4 🔴 That's an 8–10 point shift toward Republicans in mail (similar to what we're seeing in NC and PA) All early voting combined, mail and in person: 🔵 D+1.4 Where it ends up The in-person share grows as early voting goes on. In 2024, mail went from about three quarters of early ballots at the start to 51% by the end. Suppose today's party shares within each method hold and only that mix changes: • Early vote finishes around 🔵D+0.9, against 🔴R+3.6 in 2024 (the improvement is from IPEV being net red) That's a shift, not a tsunami. NC moved 22 points. Nevada is on pace for about 🔵D+4.5, which leaves the state close to a coin flip by Election Day. What it means for the races 🏛️ CD2 (open seat after Amodei's retirement): at 2024's mix of mail and in-person, it's R+10 by registration. That works out to roughly Flippo +7, so we're on track to hold it. The main risk is Lynn Chapman (Independent American) pulling Republican votes. 🏛️ CD1, CD3 and CD4: Democrat-held, and nothing in the data points to a change. 🏛️ Governor: in 2022, Lombardo ran about 2 points ahead of his party. An electorate around D+1 is within that range, and the polls are tied within 2. Lombardo has a good chance to hold. The advantage depends on: • Republicans closing the in-person gap over the next two weeks. • Republicans showing up on Election Day, which is where Nevada Republicans have been strongest. This is the biggest risk. • Mail staying close. The DataRepublican Nevada map is coming soon on my website. It'll show mail and in-person by county, a CD2 breakout, and comparisons against both 2022 and 2024.

The past few days, I got my hands on thousands of new transcripts and hundreds of recordings, thanks to leads from @SKDoubleDub33 and @iamlisalogan . You've heard that the DSA is proposing structural reforms to America, including abolishing the Senate and imposing term limits. What you not have heard is - there is an operational plan to put it all into action. If the Democratic Party sweeps 2026, then DSA will become "foot soldiers" in constant clashes with the administration to cross a "red line" or invoke a "doomsday scenario" - meaning, President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, probably sometime in 2027. Then, a lot of coordinated responses kick off, including delegitimizing the federal government itself and handing that legitimacy to Democratic governors. 2028 then becomes a vote on whether to keep America governance as-is or to burn it all down to appease a "young and brown" demographic. The mysterious group who's been coordinating 50501, Indivisible, and coordinating the NoKings protests is called "United Democracy Alliance" and their intellectual leader is Erica Chenoweth who came up with the 3.5% rule of nonviolent regime change. Patience. I know I've hyped this more than anything else. It's genuinely the biggest discovery I've had. This is an enormous archive. This is only the beginning.