Rafael Cerame

🇻🇪 Los demócratas llevan meses preparando las investigaciones que abrirán cuando controlen el Congreso en enero. He revisado las cartas que han enviado a la Casa Blanca, a Rubio, Hegseth y otros miembros del Gobierno. Empiezan por Venezuela, donde llevan meses preparando investigaciones. Quieren todos los acuerdos petroleros firmados por Washington, especialmente el de Betancourt, que concede acceso a 17 yacimientos y una participación del 35 % a EE.UU. Exigen saber quién negoció, qué recibió cada parte y si funcionarios estadounidenses intervinieron para favorecer a Betancourt en investigaciones judiciales. También quieren seguir el rastro de más de 13.000 millones de dólares en ingresos petroleros, conocer quién controla las cuentas en Qatar, quién autoriza los pagos, quién se beneficia y qué dicen las auditorías de KPMG. Piden además los acuerdos entre Delcy, Betancourt y la Administración Trump, las comunicaciones con Chevron, Exxon y otras petroleras antes y después de la captura de Maduro. Y explicaciones sobre las promesas de transición democrática: cuándo habrá elecciones, qué compromisos asumió Rubio y qué ocurre con los presos políticos. Ya solicitaron estos documentos, los republicanos bloquearon algunas citaciones y el Departamento de Estado solo entregó parte de lo reclamado. En enero podrán volver a exigirlo desde la mayoría del Congreso. También investigarán la guerra a Irán, su coste y las víctimas civiles; los negocios de la familia Trump y sus criptomonedas; los archivos de Epstein; las redadas del ICE; los contratos públicos; los vínculos con el bolsonarismo en Brasil y hasta la financiación del nuevo salón de baile de la Casa Blanca. No son simples amenazas. Hay cartas, solicitudes de documentos y expedientes abiertos. Hasta ahora los republicanos podían bloquear muchas de estas iniciativas. Desde enero, los demócratas podrán convocar audiencias, citar a responsables y exigir documentación. A Trump le esperan dos años de investigaciones parlamentarias.

President Trump on VP JD Vance running for 2028: "We'll see what happens... You don't know who's talking about running... Maybe he won't run, I don't know who's gonna run."

Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies. Hoping for a course correction, for the country and for my party.

Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies. Hoping for a course correction, for the country and for my party.

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

POLLSTER ACCURACY 🇺🇸 2026 MIDTERMS National Generic Ballot AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2026 Midterms. Please note: the ranking is unlikely to change but exact errors depend on the final vote count. An updated table will reflect the final data.

Al contrario. La victoria demócrata fue tan aplastante que la extrema izquierda del partido va a quedar diluida entre los 250 congresistas y 54-55 senadores demócratas, cuya gran mayoría serán de centro y centro-derecha. Los ultras harán mucho ruido, pero no serán mayoría. Si los democratas hubieran ganado por muy poco, hubieran sido votos decisivos, y hubieran tenido mucho mas poder.

El próximo martes, Estados Unidos votará y el mundo estará observando... Comparto con ustedes mi análisis previo a ese importante evento electoral: rafaelcerame.com/2026/10/30/…

Since the beginning of 2026, AtlasIntel was the only pollster to project a generic ballot lead for democrats of more than 14pp.

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Trump dice que los republicanos habrían ganado en una "avalancha" si él hubiera estado en la papeleta de las elecciones de medio término.

El próximo martes, Estados Unidos votará y el mundo estará observando... Comparto con ustedes mi análisis previo a ese importante evento electoral: rafaelcerame.com/2026/10/30/…