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#CPI #PPI #ImportPrices #JoblessClaims and now #IndustrialProduction all suggest the #Fed rate hike has done little to slow the economy. Likely more rate hikes ahead.

#Inflation is NOT simply about #energy!! Import Prices EX PETROLEUM are surging. Now +6%!! The #Fed still has some serious work to do.

The US continues to #import #inflation as #deglobalization expands. Core #ImportPrices (NO FOOD OR ENERGY!) continue to rise faster than Core #CPI.

Overconfidence? There have been only 3 months in the last 40 years when individual investors’ #cash #allocation was lower than today!!

Investors have been concerned about US #government finances but now suddenly surprised by #IG #Tech risk. Yet, the #CDS market has been pricing in Tech’s incremental #default risk for more than a year!!

#Manufacturing #pricing intentions lead the Core #PPI and they suggest today’s 5% Core PPI might not be a ceiling on #inflation.

#DataCenters in space???? Someone please explain how that will help the US build manufacturing and submarines and ships and regain economic independence???

#JoblessClaims (LEADING Indicator) remain extraordinarily strong. Today’s hot #PPI + Strong Jobless Claims = #Fed tightening CYCLE intact.

Core Final Demand #PPI pierces 5% a level never seen in its history outside of the immediate post-pandemic period. New #inflation paradigm? We think so.

Some still believe the #Fed needn’t tighten despite that Core #inflation has met the Fed’s 2% #inflation target during only 6 of the last 60 months.

#Consumers believe #inflation is hurting them more than during the late-1970s!!! How long can this go on before it starts encouraging higher #wage demands?

#LargeCap #Technology bulls typically referred to the companies’ massive Free Cash Flow (#FCF) generation. That was true BUT BUT BUT…#MidCap’s FCF Yield is now meaningfully higher.

For those of us who drive and eat, it’s pretty clear that #inflation remains a problem that the #Fed alone will have to deal with in the absence of #fiscal policy restraint.

As one’s textbook suggests, the increase in #mortgage rates is starting to slow #housing.

The #StrategicPetroleumReserve (#SPR) is now the LOWEST EVER relative to #Refinery Inputs. Potential implications for #inflation, #NationalSecurity, and overall market #risk.

Consistently high levels of #uncertainty continue to suggest the selloff in #gold is overdone.

#Oil prices seem to be following verified shipping data rather than stories about oil shipments returning to normal. #WTI up nearly 25% in the last 2 months and now back to pre-truce levels.

While #WallStreet and the #Fed continue to use inertial breakevens to convince themselves that #inflation is temporary, secular inflation expectations continue to accelerate and embed in the #economy.

#JoblessClaims (LEADING Indicator of #Employment) continue to show extraordinary strength. The #Fed probably shouldn’t worry about unemployment and focus on #inflation.

#Equity markets haven’t yet caught on but the #debt markets are sniffing problems with #AI debt expansion. #Technology #CDS #spreads are significantly widening vs defensive sectors.