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Last 24h, in four beats: First: soft payrolls; US 2y yields slip. Then: 10y at 5.34%, 30y at 5.70%, 2002 highs. Fiscal risk, not the Fed. Next: French–German spread widest since 2011; euro at a 17-month low. Last: gold, BTC flat. Gauge: HY spreads +44bp in 5 sessions. #USD

Don't watch gold into the Fed minutes. Watch the US 2y yield. 18:00 UTC. Within 2h: 4.90%+ is hawkish, 4.75% or less dovish, between is inline (our 55% base). Only the dovish branch flips EUR/USD bullish, and it has moved 1.68x a normal day on these releases. #EURUSD

War is good for gold? Not this time. Hormuz tanker attacks, a claimed Houthi strike on Aramco: gold reopened Sunday without a gap. With 10y real yields near 2.88%, shocks lift bond yields, not haven bids. Quiet tell: high-yield spreads 44bp wider in 5 sessions. #gold

3 things week 40 settled: 1. Soft data can't stop the yield squeeze: payrolls +29K, and the US 10y erased its dip at once. 2. Driver: term premium and fiscal fear (US, France), not the Fed. 3. Gold stayed heavy. A claimed Houthi strike on Aramco drew no haven bid. #bonds

What weighed on gold yesterday? Not stocks: VIX sat near 16. Bonds? The US 10y touched 5.33%, highest since 2002. But inflation expectations barely moved. So the answer: real yields rose. Today, euro-area CPI and US payrolls (~89K expected) show if it resumes. #yields

The next 9 hours hinge on one eurozone print. Now: core CPI flash y/y, consensus 2.5%, prior 2.4%. 09:00 UTC: release. 2.6%+, EUR/USD leans bullish. 2.5% or less, bearish (our base case). After: gold, BTC neutral. Past release days moved EUR/USD 1.17x normal. #EURUSD

Yesterday, core PCE printed a soft 0.2% and job openings fell 256K. Bonds should have rallied. Instead the US 10y hit 5.30%, a 2007 high: investors want more to hold debt. Gold's bearish case lost its edge; the euro stayed heavy. Next chapter: Friday's payrolls. #Treasuries

Two inputs land at 14:00 UTC: 1. ISM manufacturing: consensus 54.8. 55.3+ is hot, 54.2 or less is soft. 2. Waller: 2+ more hikes by mid-2027 is hot, 1 at most is dovish. Hot or inline: gold and EUR/USD lean bearish. Soft: bullish. BTC neutral either way. #gold

Three things to watch in Kashkari's speech tonight, 22:00 UTC: 1. Backs an October hike, or 2+ more? Gold, BTC and EUR/USD lean bearish. 2. Room for one more in 2026, no October pledge: neutral. Our base case. 3. Calls 4.00% restrictive enough: all three lean bullish. #Bitcoin

Don't watch gold's price. Watch one decimal: core PCE m/m, due 30 Sep 12:15 UTC. Consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%. At 0.4%+, gold and EUR/USD lean bearish. At 0.2% or less, both lean bullish. 0.3% changes nothing. EUR/USD reacts hardest: 1.22x a normal day's move. #EURUSD

Three takeaways from the bond rout: 1. US 10y hit 5.25%, a 2007 high. UK, Japan long bonds at record yields. 2. Breakevens flat: real rates up, the drag on gold for weeks. 3. An Iranian missile near Hormuz lifted oil and yields, not havens. Next test: Wednesday's core PCE.

Weak economy = good for gold? Not yet. Sentiment at 48.1, a sixth bank failure: high rates are biting at home. But stocks and credit haven't flinched, real yields hold near 2.85%, and an October hike is still priced. Gold stays heavy; Wednesday's core PCE tests the hike. #gold

A bond rout means markets are scared? Not this week. US 10y 5.20%, a 19-year high. 30y: a 22-year high. Bunds, JGBs followed. Yet inflation expectations sat still and stocks held near records. That's an October hike being priced. Gold slid on the same math. #Treasuries

Why won't Trump's no to Iran's ceasefire help gold? Markets were shut, strikes got pushed past the midterms, Hormuz still flows. War news lifts oil and yields, not gold. What steers it: real rates. 10y TIPS 2.85%, Bunds highest since 2009. The bias stays bearish.

Yesterday the 30-year Treasury hit 5.52%, a 22-year high. Stocks shrugged. Breakevens didn't move. 10y TIPS held 2.76%: tightening, not panic. Late on, the dollar dipped as Washington and Tokyo talked up the yen, not on lower rates. Its floor holds. Gold stays heavy. #USD

Keep an eye on three things this week. 1. US 10y: hit 5.20%, a 19-year high. Real yields are gold's main weight. 2. Breakevens flat while bond vol jumped: markets want real return, not an inflation hedge. 3. A US-Iran Hormuz deal firming up. Cooler oil could ease yields. #gold

24 hours, one story: bonds. Yesterday: Fed's Collins, Barr back an October hike. US 10y ~5.11%, highest since 2007. Close: breakevens flat at 2.33%, vol calm. Real rates, not fear. Now: dollar near 2-month high; gold, euro heavy; BTC directionless. Today: does 10y hold 5%?

Everyone says a tanker hit in Hormuz is an oil story. The tape says: WTI -2.5% near $89.5, down 10%+ on the week. The story is rates. 2y +9bp to 4.76%, October hike live, real yields at cycle highs. Dollar held; gold capped. Next: Trump–Xi, Wednesday. #oil

Don't look at the record close. Count the tankers. Hormuz down to twelve vessels from thirty-five. Saudi shut the East–West pipeline. Crude still fell. A tape that won't pay for a closed strait won't pay gold a haven premium — real 10y at 2.61% is charging rent to hold it.

Three things the weekend changed. The missiles weren't one. 1. Houthis hit Riyadh and a Saudi export hub. Crude closed the week ~3% lower. 2. Real rates rose an eighth straight week. 10y TIPS 2.61%. 3. VIX under 15. The haven bid is in the dollar, not gold. Reopen 21:00 UTC.