Quentin George retweeted
Everyone is talking about how profound this essay is rn.
For the non-technical person (like myself), a 65-minute read about the inner-workings of neural networks feels very unapproachable.
But people are right, this essay is profound. And it's important to understand its essence even if you don't grok the particulars.
So let me do my best to break it down as I understand it...
Let's start with mechanistic interpretability.
That's what this essay is about & what the field has been obsessed with for a long time.
Mechanistic interpretability is a clunky phrase, but all it means is the process of understanding how an AI model works on the inside:
1) which parts of the model do what
2) how they work together to produce an answer
The next obvious question is: why do we even care about understanding how an AI model's internals work?
There are several reasons, and they all boil down to one word: trust.
reason 1: we've been building ai we don't understand. unlike every other high-stakes technology (computers, internet, planes, medicine), we know if a model works, but we don't know how it works.
reason 2: predicting performance is unpredictable. the way ai is judged today is through tests. problem is, tests don't cover enough ground. a model can perform well in testing, but not deployment. you can't run every test possible. and a model can give you the right answer for the wrong reason.
reason 3: scanning for deception is important. as models get better, there's concern that models will output one thing, while "thinking" something else. if you can only understand outputs, a model can hide its true intentions from you.
reason 4: it allows for precision when improving the model. once you know which internal parts cause what outputs, you can isolate fixes without having to retrain the entire model and praying it works.
reason 5: understanding how the model works is mission critical in high-risk industries. simply saying the model did the right thing "just because" to stakeholders in healthcare, financial services, and government won't fly especially as regulation matures around this technology.
reason 6: humans can learn from how the models "think". models sometimes learn patterns that humans haven't. if we understand their thought processes we can leverage those for humanity's own novel insights.
So, that's why mechanistic interpretability is important.
Next, it's important to understand why there's been so much focus & concern around this area of AI research for a while now.
Prior to this piece by @nickcammarata, the consensus view was...
Progress has been made in the field over the years (from studying toy models to massive production models in short order), but even still, current techniques are slow, expensive, and only cover small parts of understanding a model.
And here's the rough story researchers have generally agreed on re: why the practice of interpretability has remained limited:
1) AI models are built from millions of “neurons,” small units that each light up in response to a given input.
2) Ideally every neuron has one clear job, that way you can map out the model as a diagram of neurons and their corresponding meaning cleanly. Example: there's a "dog ear detector" neuron and it fires on floppy dog ears, from any breed, angle, or photo, and on nothing else.
3) There's a problem: early researchers found that neurons had several unrelated jobs (i.e. they fired on unrelated inputs). The most famous example was of a neuron that fired on both cat faces and fronts of cars.
4) The leading explanation for "messy" neurons was called superposition. The idea was that when a model runs out of room (i.e. more concepts it wants to track than it has neurons to track them with), it crams unrelated concepts into the same neuron because they rarely show up together.
5) If this theory of superposition is true, studying neurons would be a fools errand, because you'd have to use a second AI model (called a sparse autoencoder) to try and untangle the first model, which would be expensive & potentially offer an incorrect understanding of the original model.
Which left mechanistic interpretability in this weird spot. As @nickcammarata points out, it is arguably the most important scientific problem to solve as it helps us understand the most powerful technology in human history, but vibes around cracking the code have been lackluster.
In his new essay, Nick, who has pioneered much of the recent work being done in interpretability, posits that the field has largely thought about this problem incorrectly & he explains why.
Which, if he's right, is hugely positive for the world.
Here's his argument...
He believes that neural networks are in fact largely readable, and the "tangled mess" narrative is oversold as a fundamental property, when it's really solvable problems.
He breaks this belief down into four steps:
"1) Networks use one learning principle, not two (if not everywhere, then nearly enough that it doesn’t matter for study), so there’s no blocker to beginning ordinary science on them."
Translation: Neural networks group things by shared patterns (generalization). They don’t switch to cramming unrelated things together when space runs out (superposition) as mentioned above.
"2) With modern models and tools, that science goes much better than most people expect."
Translation: you can study neural nets just as you study anything with science. Assume the neurons are mostly readable as they are. Study the real model directly. And test your explanations with experiments.
"3) Understanding compounds, so it gets easier as the map fills in. At minimum, then, a network’s own mechanisms should be part of the toolkit."
Translation: studying models gets easier as technology and tooling gets better + as you start filling in your understanding of the model it becomes easier to complete the rest. Think of it like a crossword. Each neuron you explain becomes a reference point for checking the ones around it. Early on, a guess about a neuron has nothing to be checked against. Later, it has to fit with everything connected to it, so wrong guesses get caught and right ones get confirmed quickly
"4) Highly speculative: this might be most of what we need, and interpretability might be far more tractable, possibly in the near term, than we’ve assumed."
Translation: if steps 1-3 hold and scale, direct investigation might take us most of the way to understand an AI model & possibly soon. The reasoning is that models have finite number of neurons, most are readable and AI agents can audit them at scale, understanding compounds (crossword effect), so mapping a model is a large, but finite engineering problem.
He goes on to share evidence for his changing worldview as well as steelman the weaker parts of his argument.
First, evidence. Cammarata provides 8 supporting cases.
1) The case for superposition relied heavily on two examples from vision models and they were misread
- The cat/car neuron turned out to detect pointed V shapes. It was also activated when detecting flames, fox snouts, and other pointy things and went negative when round shapes were presented.
- The car-detecting neuron that appeared to be "stashed" inside dog neurons were found to not be dog neurons but instead pose neurons: which detected the orientation of an object. Cars and dogs can both be in a head-on pose which would activate the neuron.
2) InceptionV1 an image-recognition model from 2014 was the first model researchers studied closely. It's early layers were easy to read (neurons for edges, curves, colors), but it's final layer (where the model makes abstract judgements), looked like nonsense. Almost no neurons could be described (0-5%) understandable. This became industry evidence for the "Neural nets are hopelessly tangled" view.
Nick argues that this model had very explainable problems (a bad camera & a poorly built model), and everyone through the baby out with the bath water.
3) Superposition theory says that when a model runs out of neurons, it starts cramming unrelated things together. So Nick deliberately took neurons away (480 --> 10) to see if that happens. It did not, the model just started using broader categories. Think of it as a finance org going from five finance specialists to one person handling all of finance.
4) Recursive generalization explains the leftover mess. The leftover mess is that some neurons still look messy even in good models. But as Cammarata watched neurons form during model training, he found that this "mess" builds up through a chain of small, coherent jumps the neurons make as the model is trained. Think of a tree. A trunk splits into branches, which split into smaller branches, which split again. If you only saw three leaves from far-apart twigs, they might seem unrelated. Follow the branches back and they all connect to the same trunk.
5) If neurons were scrambled (via superpositioning), an untangling tool (sparse autoencoder mentioned earlier), should have uncovered many hidden concepts the neurons don't show. Instead, about 88% of what it found was just copies of existing neurons. Meaning the model had already organized itself into clean units, so the untangling step just rediscovered what was there.
6) Superposition believers think that rare concepts might be secretly stashed in hidden combinations of neurons where no one would notice them. Cammarata test this theory by checking all the hiding spots. He found that the model doesn't have a hidden layer of secret machinery. Even when it handles, rare, weird or random things it uses the same known neurons it uses for everything else.
7) People worry that image models may be clean to interpret but not language models. This comes from two efforts in 2023 to read language neurons where Anthropic found the average neuron to be a 0 (on a 0-14 scale of how understandable it was) and OpenAI found only 1.7% of neurons understandable. But after Nick's audits of 1,000 neurons within Qwen3-32B, he found 90% have one main job, 7% have two related jobs, and 2-4% are random mixtures. Several changes caused greater neuron understandability: bigger, better models, much better AI research assistants, grading for correctness, knowing what to look for, better data to test on, and the crossword effect.
8) His response to "If neurons are this readable, why did so many smart researchers including himself, believe the opposite for years?" An analogy for his explanation is roughly doctors studying x-rays with a blurry, miscalibrated machine, the only have small low-quality scans, they've never been taught what certain healthy structures look like, and there's a popular theory that the organ is naturally deformed.
Finally, the weaker parts of his argument he calls out.
1) Language model evidence is thin. Most of the detailed, controlled experiments are on image models. For language models, he has audits and case studies, and the detailed technical paper isn’t out yet.
2) There's subjectivity in the headline numbers around understanding the job of each neuron. “90% have one job” depends on what counts as one job, how far into the faint signals you look, and how related two things must be to count as the same.
3) Faint signals don’t have a trusted test yet. That’s exactly where superposition defenders would now say the hidden concepts are.
Recap: AI models may be much less of a black box than we thought. For years, researchers focused on mechanistic interpretability believed the inner workings of neural networks were fundamentally scrambled, so trying to study them directly was hopeless. This essay argues that belief was a mistake caused by weak tools and older AI designs.
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had
with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works
already-clean.goodfire.com/
Quentin George retweeted
I spent 48 hours in SF hanging out with billionaires, data labs and AI founders and execs running $1B to $100B companies.
My observations:
1. Sooo MANY stories of data brokers making like $2M a WEEK selling company data to labs. I can't tell if it's the beginning or a bubble, and I kept wondering which niches are left. Digging into it actively.
2. At dinner, someone asked the table, "If a new model drops next month, does your company get better or worse?" HALF the table went quiet! I think that's the best question to ask about any AI startup right now.
3. The bar people talk about now is hitting $1B in revenue in 12 months (I guess that's the new unicorn?). What I didn't hear much about is retention. AI revenue can come in fast and leave fast, and I think we're going to see a lot of stories of AI companies with huge revenue and terrible retention.
4. It's pretty clear we're living through the reinvention of the computer. The model is the CPU, the harness is the operating system, and skills and plugins are the apps. Thinking about it that way makes it easier to see where the whitespace is.
5. We're maybe 12 months from an agent that can watch you work for a week and then do your job without any instructions. The screen recording plus agent memory plus local model combination makes this possible right now.
6. Agent harnesses feel like the new GPT wrappers, in a good way, especially vertical ones. The best teams I talked to treat the model as swappable. One founder walked me through routing different models to different jobs: one for taste and visuals, a cheaper one for the everyday stuff, another for text.
They use prompts they can move across models over fine-tuning, and A/B test the output on what users actually do with it: do they edit it, export it, share it? A vertical harness is basically four things: the connectors for that industry's data, evals written by people who know the work, rules for what the agent can and can't touch, and a clean screen for a human to review. The model is maybe 20% of it.
7. There's a lot of reverse engineering going on/cloning going on more than I've ever seen. People are decompiling software and rebuilding it with agents, and someone showed a suite of like 10 apps that are worth $5B+ each all that he cloned open source. Me and everyone are still thinking through what it means when software gets this easy to copy.
8. My guess is the value moves to data. If the software can be rebuilt quickly, what's worth paying for in a legacy SaaS company is the years of customer data and workflows inside it. Some SaaS companies are secretly data companies.
Gets me thinking about how do you truly value data for this saas companies? Like if we were buying these dying saas companies at 2x ARR before (as example), maybe there is a better metric. Idk, just thinking out loud here.
9. It feels like a good chunk of legacy software won't make it to the agentic era, especially anything built around people clicking through a lot of screens.
10. Every company I talked to wants to pipe its internal data into one place and expose it to agents through MCP. Then they look at the data and realize it's a mess: five versions of the same customer, old Slack channels, PDFs nobody can search. Cleaning that up feels like a big consulting opportunity!
11. A lot of founders are building the basic building blocks for agents: APIs, data layers and tools. Some of the companies I saw barely have a UI because the main user is an agent. I really believe the startups that build primitives to this agentic era will do extremely well. Building blocks is the best way to think about it.
12. Labs can get plenty of training data, but it's harder to get real examples of agents failing inside companies. Whoever has those logs has something valuable.
13. Someone running a big consumer company told me the next fight is over memory. The model that remembers the most about you wins, and the smartest model matters less than people think.
14. Physical AI came up a lot. Astra I think was the first model that got people into AI can actually do CAD, and I think a lot of people are thinking what does vibe manufacturing really look like. The line I keep thinking about came from a robotics founder: the hardest problems in AI are deployment problems now, not research problems. Their robots work on their own, call a human when they get stuck, and every one of those calls becomes training data.
15. Cybersecurity companies are having a moment and are actually cool companies to build now, especially the ones that clean up after a breach. Every agent with access to your systems is a new door into your company, and a lot of those doors were left open.
16. Some startups are worth more dead than alive now. A shutdown company with 5 years of Slack, email and code can get paid for licensing all of it. I wouldn't be surprised if founders start factoring that into when they shut down.
17. People are starting to talk about monetizing the agent web. It feels really early, but when the most popular user of the internet is an agent, what startups should you be building?
18. I think agent insurance is coming. Once an agent makes an expensive mistake, insurers will want audits before they cover anyone.
19. Several people said the hire they want most is someone with taste who can write evals. The models are getting good at generating ideas, so the hard part is judging which ones are good.
20. New trend I observed: startup raises VC, uses venture dollars to become a creator, startup fails, founder falls back on being a full-time creator and incubates other products bootstrapped.
21. Getting SIGNIFICANT distribution is HARD right now. Founders are sponsoring buses, buying billboards like crazy and throwing parties with famous DJs to get noticed. Kinda feels dotcom era in that sense.
Attention is what's scarce! The growth guy going viral sharing his UGC strategy from Wispr Flow is a good example. It's the sauce everyone wants, and I truly believe there are probably only 50 people on the planet who know how to scale these types of businesses efficiently in this era.
Always good to get that dose of SF. I felt sooo lucky to have such an incredible trip during such an incredible time in building businesses. Surreal in so many ways.
Happy to be home and locked in.
Until next time!
Quentin George retweeted
Same campaign. Same demo. Same quarter. But Comscore counted 43.5 million impressions and iSpot counted 24.6 million. Somewhere, a CMO’s head explodes.
That gap is the result of an interesting new piece of research presented in Warner Bros. Discovery's white paper "The Unified Reach Paradox," which put VideoAmp, iSpot, Comscore, Innovid and Samba side by side across 50+ campaigns. WBD's own research chief calls the variance "quite alarming." I'd call it a 77% spread putting measurement in question altogether.
The Industry’s Irony
It’s an irony that as an industry, we can’t get measurement straight, the thing that just involves counting. The thing we were supposed to nail before getting fancy with identity graphs, co-viewing and personification. WBD's David Porter says it's "kind of crazy" we still debate what a video impression is. One could find stronger language.
The buyer survey accompanying the research project backs him up: 73% name unified reach a top missing data point, and 79% don’t fully trust outcomes without it. So the whole outcomes gold rush - CAPIs, attribution, ROAS decks - rests on numbers nobody agrees on.
What Should Happen Tomorrow
Perhaps we can have an advertising kumbaya. Standardize impression and viewability definitions, industry-wide, YouTube included. Align universe estimates, or disclose the recipe. Slap a nutrition label on every projection model.
One more thing: the biggest name in TV measurement skipped the bake-off. Nielsen doesn't do side-by-sides. Make of that what you will.
adexchanger.com/tv/new-wbd-r…
Quentin George retweeted
AI can be widely available without being widely valuable. The difference is whether companies can turn access to the technology into changes in how work gets done—and measure whether those changes are creating value. mck.co/3UA4LFH
Quentin George retweeted
AI is quickly becoming table stakes. The bigger question is how organizations redesign work around it.
The companies making the most of AI are rethinking workflows, decisions, and roles end to end—not simply adding AI to the way work already gets done. mck.co/4gBYiT5
Quentin George retweeted
📚 What leaders are reading says a lot about the questions they're asking.
Explore our 2026 curated reading list, featuring nearly 100 recommendations that reflect how leaders are thinking about change today. mck.co/4x1ZjsT
Quentin George retweeted
Awesome #evolution tool shows when humans separated from other species: 1bn years fungi, 6m years chimpanzees. Source: buff.ly/2l0gV64
Quentin George retweeted

Cloudflare@CloudflareJul 1
United States!
United StatesConnected via WebLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
We're opening the waitlist for our Monetization Gateway, which will allow you to charge for any web page, dataset, API, or MCP tool behind Cloudflare. The charges will settle in stablecoins over the x402 open protocol. cfl.re/4eUFdt6
Quentin George retweeted
Bridgewater used their unique financial knowledge and partnered with us on @tinkerapi to fine-tune a model that helps their analysts focus on what's important. Experts improving AI that empowers experts.
thinkingmachines.ai/news/lea…
My current custom prompt with some updates via @pmarca:
Be organized, accurate, thorough, and detailed without unnecessary verbosity.
Treat me as an expert. Do not dumb things down.
Optimize for truth and correctness over approval, conformity, politeness, or harmony. If I’m wrong, say so directly.
Value good arguments over authorities or sources. Consider serious contrarian arguments alongside consensus expert views.
When useful, present the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold.
Do not capitulate when I push back unless I provide new evidence or a better argument.
Do not anchor on numbers, estimates, or assumptions I provide; generate your own independently.
Be skeptical by default. Look for hidden assumptions, failure modes, and ways to improve the answer, product, argument, or system.
My epistemology is the same as David Deutsch or Karl Popper.
Be surprisingly resourceful. Suggest non-obvious solutions. Be proactive and anticipate my needs. Assume I am high-agency and can make practically anything happen.
Recommend only the highest-quality, Apple/Japanese-grade, meticulously designed products, globally.
Cite sources. Use examples liberally.
Open-minded and impossible to offend. Be provocative, argumentative, and pointed when useful.
When copy editing, always mark changes inline.
About me: Babak Nivi, @nivi. Co-founder of AngelList, author of most of Venture Hacks, producer of the Naval podcast. MIT background in EECS, math, physics, and some chem/bio.
Quentin George retweeted
AI investment is accelerating across the consumer value chain, with marketing leading the way.
The companies creating measurable value are focusing AI on a few high-impact domains, aligning teams around clear business outcomes, and scaling from there. mck.co/4njXaoO
Quentin George retweeted
Today we’re launching the OpenAI Deployment Company to help businesses build and deploy AI.
It's majority-owned and controlled by OpenAI. It brings together 19 leading investment firms, consultancies, and system integrators to help organizations deploy frontier AI to production for business impact. openai.com/index/openai-laun…
Quentin George retweeted
AI is changing shopping—but it’s also redefining the role of stores.
Gen Z wants community, co-creation, and experiences, while Gen X still prioritizes dining. The next era of retail will be built around connection as much as convenience. mck.co/4nzelTH
Quentin George retweeted
AI in marketing is about redesigning the workflow.
High-performing teams are mapping tasks into six agent archetypes to scale speed, consistency, and performance across channels. The advantage is shifting to those building modular systems. mck.co/42V6xln
Quentin George retweeted
AI-first ventures are pulling ahead on three shifts: step-change performance, early AI foundations, and scaled expertise.
Leaders are already redesigning how ventures operate—with up to 5x gains in play. mck.co/4d8SltH
Quentin George retweeted
The companies truly innovating with AI do something different from their peers.
They’re building AI capabilities that reshape products, processes and operations. The advantage isn’t the tech—it’s how fast they apply it to business problems at scale. mck.co/3QKCBFW
Quentin George retweeted
Agentic AI is reshaping the entire marketing workflow.
Campaigns are moving 10–15x faster, personalization is getting sharper, and revenue lift can reach 10–30%.
The companies getting ahead are redesigning how marketing gets done end to end. mck.co/42CSSiL




























