Useless Trader retweeted
There is an uncanny correlation between the factors that crashed the market in late 2018
The 2018 Parrallel 🔑
🔹 Surging Oil Production : Record-high output in the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia created a major supply glut
🔹 Iran Sanctions & Waivers : Surprise US waivers for Iranian oil buyers eliminated supply crunch fears that had driven prices up
🔹 China Trade Tensions & Rate Hikes : US-China trade tensions and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes weakened global oil demand
Sound Familiar 👇 2026
🔹Surging Production : The Strait of Hormuz crisis led to a 400 million barrel emergency stockpile release, raising fears of a global supply glut in 2027
🔹Iran Sanctions & Waivers : After oil reached $120, the US issued 60 day waivers that allowed Iranian crude back online
🔹China Trade Tensions & Fed Rates : The Fed just enacted its first rate hike in three years, following a fresh wave of tariffs on China
Useless Trader retweeted
It appears they are trying to get through the election with the current status quo in Iran with moving oil via Omani route and escalate after the midterms. Current situation is not sustainable. They tried a small special ops ground invasion which failed so probably looking for other options.
According to an informed federal official, in the coming months the Trump administration plans to send a total of 40,000 Mark 84 and Blu-117 bombs to the government of Israel. Each bomb weighs 2,000 pounds. This appears to be the largest transfer of conventional explosive ordnance from the United States in modern history.
How big is this shipment? It amounts to 40,000 tons of bombs. For perspective, the largest American air raid of World War Two was the Eighth Air Force’s attack on Berlin in March of 1945. Combined, the 2,023 Allied aircraft involved dropped about 3,000 tons of bombs. That’s 7.5 percent of what Trump is sending to Israel. That same month, March of 1945, the US Army Air Forces began the single most destructive bombing raid in human history, Operation Meetinghouse over Tokyo. More than 100,000 Japanese civilians were killed. By the end of that operation, the US had dropped 1,600 tons of bombs. That’s four percent of what Trump is sending to Israel. World War Two ended five months later, when the US dropped an atomic bomb on the city of Hiroshima. The shipment Trump is sending to Israel amounts to more than three times the destructive power of that nuclear explosion. There is no precedent for what the Trump administration is doing.
Nor is there a justification. The government of Israel is not fighting World War Two, or even a war. It is engaged in periodic skirmishes with a guerrilla force in Lebanon, and it is working to exterminate an unarmed civilian population in Gaza. Neither front requires modern 2,000-pound bombs.
An American-made Mark 84 has a destruction radius of half a mile. It releases a thermal wave the temperature of the surface of the sun. Within 100 feet of the explosion, rock melts and human flesh turns to vapor. The bomb collapses apartment buildings and leaves craters thirty-five feet deep. Until the war with Iran, the US military generally avoided using the Mark 84 in urban areas. It kills too many civilians.
For the Netanyahu government, that’s been the upside. In the weeks after October 7, the IDF dropped nearly six hundred 2,000-pound bombs on densely populated areas in Gaza, including on more than 100 officially designated civilian evacuation zones. The slaughter was so grotesque and embarrassing that for a moment the Biden administration paused a shipment of Mark 84s. Those shipments quickly resumed under Trump. Now they’ve accelerated.
It’s hard to overstate the scale of the crime the Israeli government is committing in Gaza. Over the last three years, more than a quarter-million Palestinians have been killed or wounded by Israeli forces there. The majority of them have been noncombatants: women, the elderly and tens of thousands of children. Many thousands more remain missing, presumably entombed under the rubble of 200,000 collapsed buildings. So far the Israelis have destroyed 92 percent of all homes in Gaza, and 34 of the 36 hospitals. By comparison, the 1945 Allied bombings of Dresden, now acknowledged as a war crime, destroyed about half of the city’s inhabited buildings.
By any definition, what the Netanyahu government has done in Gaza is genocide. The 40,000 new bombs the Trump administration is sending will be used to do the same in Lebanon, and likely in other countries in the region. If you wanted to extend the Iran war into the indefinite future, this is exactly what you’d do.
So far none of this has received public scrutiny. At some point, inevitably, it will be described in media accounts as an “arms sale.” It is not an arms sale. It is a gift, funded by American taxpayers through the Foreign Military Financing program, an arrangement designed to disguise welfare as capitalism: Congress appropriates money to the executive branch, which transfers the cash to Israel to “buy” American-made weapons, in this case from General Dynamics. Politicians claim this is a win for America. Most voters have no idea they paid for it. The bill in this case is about $3 billion. Add that to the $352 billion the US Treasury has transferred to Israel since 1951.
How did this happen? The request for 40,000 new high-explosive civilian-killing bombs originated at the US Embassy in Jerusalem, which is run by Christian Zionist Ambassador Mike Huckabee and his aide David Milstein, who is the stepson of Fox News host Mark Levin. From there it moved to the State Department, where Marco Rubio enthusiastically approved it.
At this point, only four more people need to sign off before the bombs ship to Israel: Senators Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen, the chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; and Congressmen Brian Mast and Gregory Meeks, the top two members of the equivalent House committee. All four are committed neocons. Collectively they’ve taken millions from the Israel lobby. In 2015, Brian Mast traveled to Israel to volunteer for the Israeli military. In 2023, Mast showed up in the House of Representatives wearing an IDF uniform.
It’s hard to imagine any of them hesitating before sending more free bombs to Israel. Only public outrage can stop this.
Useless Trader retweeted
If you like walking into a store when everything is on sale, the stock market is currently that store.
The problem with the stock market is people tend to be attracted to it when its expensive, not when its on sale.
Useless Trader retweeted
Trump already knows the midterms are lost (hence the $5000 payoff attempt).
So either he's going to pullout in embarrassment (unlikely) to attempt to salvage sentiment or he's about to escalate in such a way that Bibi had to go back home.
Gonna be a big week.
BREAKING: Iran has issued "Code 100," its highest alert level, for all armed forces in the past hour, covering the IRGC, the Army and security forces, per initial reports.
Trump cut short his weekend at Camp David to return to the White House tonight citing the potential for significant escalation, Netanyahu cut short his US trip to return to Israel the same day, and every US embassy in the Middle East has issued a security alert in the past hours.
Useless Trader retweeted
We pushed back hard on a mid-term top immediately following March low, or any call for -10% or more this summer and especially from the 6/2 all-time high.
It was clear why to our subscribers. Now here we are…summer officially ends 9/22.
@NDR_Research
nitter.cf/norseman1/status/20636…
Useless Trader retweeted
Btw this is not how bottom looks like. A major player who blew up tens of billions went to raise a yard to yolo into semis calls. Most likely Kenny G will once again take money away from Leopold. $SMH and frens.
Useless Trader retweeted
Nature is healing.
Any politician opposed to data centers is unqualified to hold public office.
Data centers are revitalizing small towns all over America, a godsend for blue collar workers, lowering electricity costs, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy and use negligible amounts of water.
Useless Trader retweeted
Incredibly tone deaf right now as PC, gaming console, and server makers are already struggling with shortages and massive chip price inflation. This would kneecap the entire industry and lead to job losses without producing a single new fab in the U.S.
Useless Trader retweeted
More rate volatility is inevitable with no forward guidance. And higher vol means higher term premium. Back end of the UST curve reflects this new reality.
Useless Trader retweeted
The cycle bottom target of the Golden Ratio Multiplier is getting more agressive by the week, now at 31k.
That number also appears with the Magic Bands.
For a while, I've felt that target, even though "would have been hit in previous cycles," is too harsh. Although, not out of the question.
Hitting level 2 again on the other hand, seems very plausible which is currently at 50k. The most popular target for accurate moving averages remains low to mid 40ks.
Bitcoin is also now running into resistance at level 3 (81k).
Useless Trader retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.
"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."
"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."
"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."
"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."
wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…
Useless Trader retweeted
Other notes ✍️
$NVDA tends to drop 2-5% in earnings weeks. Everyone is long calls, #vol crush forces dealers to sell stock
Long-end yields keep rising from populism, inequality, and a coming wave 🌊 of 2021-era debt refinancing
Higher rates crush corporate profit margins over time by making leverage far more expensive
Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be closely watched. The bond market can overpower the Fed.
$NVDA earnings + Jackson Hole 🏔️ → use active risk management
youtube.com/watch?v=1-7fO44t…
Useless Trader retweeted
Replying to @firstadopter
guesses =>
low volume summer week. AI sentiment starting to turn a bit. altman interview uninspiring. trump tariffs. de grossing after TMT guys lost their shirts in July and refuse to get hit twice so momentum trade (long semis, short software/hyperscalers) unwinding a bit.
pple trying to become more defensive as sept will be volatile...jackson hole with inflation data going to be hotter post july data...risk of negative company pre-announcements during conference season as oil remains high which could impact consumer names
Useless Trader retweeted
*TRUMP TO RAISE AUTO, STEEL TARIFFS ON CANADA TO 50%
*TRUMP SETS JAN. 1, 2027 FOR 50% CANADA TARIFF HIKE
*TRUMP: CANADA WILL BE TREATED LIKE A STATE NO LONGER
*TRUMP: WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US
Useless Trader retweeted
Data is computation at rest. Training resurrects it in silicon and sets it back in motion.
Useless Trader retweeted
The entire “negotiation” with Canada was always Kayfabe. The reason there is confusion and a lack of clear leadership around the talks was because they were always doomed to fail.
Bessent has one priority. China.
And he knew from the start exactly what I posted on here in February 2025. If you ask Canadians to give up trade with China they will say fuck you. And so you need to put them into a depression first.
A financial crisis so bad that even the most deranged liberal boomer with TDS feels pain.
And because carney had anointed himself as the king of the “middle powers” this is the lowest cost way to make a public demonstration to the europoors on the cost of not being onboard with decoupling.
This always had to happen. Not because there wasn’t a way to negotiate behind closed doors.
It’s because the European politicians would never be able to sell the notion of decoupling to their own populace without a concrete proofpoint that Trump means it when he taps his finger on the economic nuke button.
I know Bitcoin is running and I very publicly bailed on it at $80k but I continue believe the next levers to be pulled will be access to energy supply as well as access to dollar liquidity.
That is a scary world. Midterms are near. Idk how they plan to thread this needle.
But there is a plan. Vol goes up as does Bessents attempts to manipulate markets.
Good luck homies 🫡
Useless Trader retweeted
#midterm #seasonality SPX
Useless Trader retweeted
The "U.S. Treasury" was buying/retiring government debt in the months immediately preceding the October 1929 stock-market crash.
The timing is striking: the $100 million September 16 purchase occurred only about six weeks before Black Monday/Black Tuesday, October 28–29, 1929.
Useless Trader retweeted
Ahhhhhh Shuckie Duckie!
S&P500 $SPX actual performance is perfectly tracking the Summer price path of the Cycle Composite since start of July.
Sometimes the scheduled fund flows rear their ugly head and force investors to recognize, its not seasonality, but a schedule!
$SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $DIA $VIX $NVDA $VOO
Useless Trader retweeted
I said ~66k and below were the DCA window being entered. Some of you understood the assignment.
Do I think the bottom is in? Possible, but that would also mean cycles as we know them are changing.
I've yet to see the actual chart structure change, I want to see MSTR reclaim the 200 SMA.
I want to see what September brings, because it's often not good.
I made money today and I hope many of you did too.
A lot can happen between now and October 6th.
We continue observing.