The Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) at Western Washington University. Publishers of the award-winning Puget Sound Economic Forecaster.
Bellingham, WA
Joined December 2018
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The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $105.0 billion in September from $105.7 billion in August (revised), as exports increased more than imports.
Power grid capacity has become one of the most talked-about constraints in commercial real estate, but insurance turns up in more decisions.
Both costs now shape how investors choose markets and underwrite deals, but they drive different decisions. Grid capacity determines where new projects can go. Insurance shapes whether an investment works at all. buff.ly/zaU5AQS
Now... this is interesting: Canada’s premier said the US is “asking less” and “offering more” as the countries revive trade talks after an earlier round collapsed. buff.ly/EAqp3yi
It was a safe bet for much of the year: higher oil prices are bad for government bonds. Now the link has been broken as money managers worry more about growth and less about inflation.
The break is increasing the appeal of bonds, despite the risk of a flare-up in violence that could lead to another oil price spike. Traders say interest rates can’t rise much further given the economic damage already being caused by the energy shock and higher borrowing costs.
The economic risks of cyber attacks, whether from bored youth or motivated operatives, are something we have barely begun to articulate fully as the landscape continues to develop.
The risks are significant, but the largest risk is the absolute unpredictability. Hackers are cranking the heat on Europe’s supermarket freezers to above 120 degrees. buff.ly/3HxcFfX
America’s renters are in serious trouble. Several gauges of their financial health are flashing red. buff.ly/SmSJYpB
New orders for manufactured goods in September, up three consecutive months, increased $12.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $677.2 billion.
September 2026: +1.8° % Change
August 2026 (r): +0.3° % Change
People who lose their jobs due to AI are having more trouble finding new roles than other displaced workers, Goldman Sachs finds. After an AI-related job loss, workers take about a month longer to find a new job, compared with those who lost work for other reasons, Goldman’s
Pierfrancesco Mei estimates. “Younger workers, who are likely more exposed to AI-driven displacement, are navigating this transition better. They are returning to full-time employment faster and cycling through fewer temporary jobs along the way.” buff.ly/6wOU3SG
An uncomfortable truth about AI’s growing capabilities: The work that many junior white-collar workers have long done will soon be better off automated.
So says Harvard’s Jason Furman, who set off a contentious conversation about the future of the economics profession last month when he launched an AI-driven data dashboard, and argued similar tools could replace a significant portion of the junior staff at the White House
Council of Economic Advisers, which he previously led. Incubating young talent is important, he acknowledges. But he argues it will be increasingly difficult to justify keeping entry-level staff on board to do tasks a chatbot can accomplish. buff.ly/0WAeoiq
