Pinned Tweet
Replying to @calvinfroedge
Khamenei dying means whatever happens now there’s no turning around and doing kayfabe face savings desert bombings anymore… the last path to defuse this situation is gone, now it’s either Iran gets a persian-spring(it won’t) or we’re in for one wild ride
Smaugoliscious retweeted
Im voting to separate
Why? bc I've proven I understand the world & understand Canada is not a country that you start a company in, i myself cant start one here.
It is however a country that you steal money from tax payers in.
I want a better place for Albertans.
Smaugoliscious retweeted
Silver will not trade at $100/oz again this year.
That was the claim I made on February 17, when silver was near $90/oz.
The comments were full of people telling me I needed to “educate myself” and that this time was different because “Industrial demand” and blah blah blah.
Fast forward to today: silver is trading around $59/oz.
Three months ago I also said silver will not trade below $50/oz again. Since then, on every Silver post I make self-appointed experts in the comments insisting it is heading to $40 or $30 and that I need to “educate myself”
The lesson remains simple: on X, do the exact opposite of what the so-called experts tell you.
Gurus selling hopium with $silver, calling for $200 soon. But they fail to understand the asset's history.
Silver is a commodity that tends to stagnate in a 50% range for years or decades.
Here’s a brief history lesson many of you need:
1) Late 1980s to 2003–2006 (15–18 years): After the 1980 crash from ~$50 to under $10, silver traded mostly in a $4–$8 range.
2) Post-2011 correction to 2020–2024 (9–13 years): After peaking near $49 in 2011, silver fell and ranged broadly $14–$30.
3) 1925–1934 (Great Depression era, 10 years): Roughly $0.28–$0.69/oz
4) 1935–1944: $0.35–$0.64/oz
5) 1945–1954: $0.52–$0.89/oz
6) 1955–1964: $0.89–$1.31/oz
The probability of silver stagnating for years to come is very high.
Long-term bullish, but silver will not touch $100 again this year. That’s certain.
Now my comments will fill with “This time is different” bros.
#Silver #silversqueeze $SLV
Smaugoliscious retweeted
Show me a better risk/reward trade today than thermal coal miners.. Russia, Indonesia & China have production issues, India (and Europe) have inventory issues.. and gas is trading at like >US$300/t Newcastle equivalent.
Meanwhile at US$150/t Newcastle the miners trade at 2-3x EBITDA with multi decade mine lives (likely pricing in US$120/t NEWC)... 🤔🤔
Ten Year Yield vs WTI, indicating bond yields are bottoming vs oil, and will need/are expected to go much much higher
Smaugoliscious retweeted
Replying to @basedjensen
wait till we clean out the social "scientists"
you have not heard screaching yet but you will.
none of it is falsifiable 99% of it is hippy dippy runes and astrology adjacent bullshit.
Smaugoliscious retweeted
"We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."
So our dear Iranian friends can sleep like babies: feel free to light up tankers in the Strait, sic the Houthis on the Saudis, or even spin up a nuke before the midterms!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
#oott #iran
Smaugoliscious retweeted
“BUT I THOUGHT THERE WAS AN OIL GLUT”
Listen, you can be on the wrong side of this trade or you can follow:
-Unparalleled energy expertise: @JoshYoung
(Backup option: me)
-Excellent war/political analysis: @BrettErickson28
(Backup option: me)
-Brilliant unbiased data tracking: @LVision_Trading
(Careful following me here im a slight propagandist)
-A pair of bollocks that doesnt fit through the door with his leverage:
@GavMcCracken
(Makes my 50% energy exposure look like a schoolboy position)
-Reminders for patience through October and more wisdom: @DonMiami3
-Great technical analysis: @diepthaolong
Who’d I miss?
When it’s all said and done I’ll share the list of accounts to follow if you hate making money and who are in the process of getting an education.
Smaugoliscious retweeted
love or hate ai, can we all agree how refreshing it is to see tech giants flexing on eachother by solving open math problems instead of competing over ad conversion rates?
Smaugoliscious retweeted
I've been saying Araghchi was a USA agent this entire fucking time
Why else did he tank the oil price by more than $5 in a single day, more than once?
BREAKING: An impeachment resolution has been filed against Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi over his meeting with Witkoff and Kushner in New York, which was carried out without any authorization of the Supreme National Security Council or Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
One of the seven grounds in the resolution is that Araghchi's interviews and statements have brought down the global oil price over the past months, giving "the enemy, especially the terrorist American government, room to breathe."
Another accuses him of errors of calculation that contributed to the 12-day war, the current war, and ultimately to the death of the Supreme Leader.
Iran's SNSC chief Rezaei says Iran's conditions had already been passed to the US repeatedly, meaning there was nothing left to discuss that would justify meeting the Americans directly.
Smaugoliscious retweeted
Replying to @HormuzLetter
Deserved, he was actually helping Bessent to manipulate down Oil by a lot. This was such a fucked up move, this has to have consequences.
Smaugoliscious retweeted
#WTI #USOIL 4時間足で上昇トレンドチャネルと88.7の水平線は突破されています。
落下して戻って88.7で拒否される場合はショートの好機としてとらえます。
逆にロンドンタイムになって買いが入って急反発してきて週固定VWAPを確保すればロングします。
どちらかといえば上昇トレンドラインを失っているので、下降トレンドであるという認識です。








































