Decoding real estate beyond noise.
Earth
Joined August 2023
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So today, I introduce myself as Property Decoder @ Ground Lens —
A dedicated consumer centric knowledge platform built to decode how real estate really works.
For a long time, I myself have faced a massive gap between what’s projected and what’s real in Indian ‘Real’ Estate.
What began as simple curiosity gradually became a deeper purpose – to decode what lies beneath the surface-level real estate chatter – full of overhyped narratives, speculative sales pitches, cherry-picking bias, inflated claims, tailored data – often supplied as “knowledge” or “insights.”
Here's why I had to start this 👇( 1/n)
🌻Announcement🌻
A Small Change, A Bigger Purpose
After much thought (and a fair share of nervous excitement), I’m making a small but meaningful shift.
I started this account on X with a simple intention: to share my learnings, question dominant narratives, and connect with people trying to make sense out of complexities around real estate in India, beyond just glossy brochures and narrative hype.
Over time, I realised how one-sided and supply-driven most real estate discourse is, often fueled by FOMO, half-truths, greed, and promotional hype – majorly focusing on pushing sales rather than addressing buyers’ voice/needs or empowering them to take informed decisions.
There were moments I genuinely considered stepping away. Because real estate has long been the most uncomfortable zone for me, not due to any problem wrt this need based asset, but because of the ecosystem around it which often feels opaque, fake and disturbingly anti-consumer.
Yet, for many in the industry, that’s just business as usual. Though the presence of bad actors has made trust hard to come by, but those who bought wisely have fulfilled their needs and also seen real value creation over time.
What kept me going, despite all the doubts and dilemmas, was the thoughtful support and encouragement I received from family, friends, and many of you who have been engaging with me since the beginning.
Some even pushed me to take it a step further, to get my hands dirty and build something more meaningful. For that, I’m genuinely grateful.
So today, I’m doing just that.
Soon this account will no longer carry the name “Indian Real Estate Index.”
It marks the beginning of a new phase - still rooted in the same core values:
👉 Clarity over noise
👉 Ground truths over narratives opium
👉 Putting the buyer’s voice first because that’s where I’ve mostly been
If you’ve found value in what I’ve shared so far, I hope you’ll continue to be part of what’s next.
The journey ahead is going to be more focused, more structured, and hopefully, far more impactful.
🙏 Thank you for reading, engaging, and helping shape this.
See you on the other side :)
If Delhi NCR represents North India's love affair with real estate, Hyderabad seems to be doing the same for South India.
Both cities are making headlines for record-breaking real estate deals. Real estate remains one of the most visible ways to signal wealth and status in these two cities which are miles apart, yet remarkably similar in their fascination with "trophy" real estate.
The problem with real estate isn't necessarily real estate itself.
Real problem is buying without being well-informed, relying blindly on a commission-driven ecosystem rather than understanding what you are actually buying into.
As housing prices in Gurgaon start catching up with Mumbai, perhaps Gurgaon residents might also start saying the same thing...
"Gurgaon is now too expensive to build a life in..." and then start looking at Hyd, Pune, Blr or other cities instead with similar job opportunities.
India's Grade A office leasing picks up 📈 again.
According to Colliers, gross leasing across 7 major cities reached 18.7 million sqft, up 9% YoY and 7% QoQ.
- Bengaluru remained the largest market, with 5.2 million sq. ft. leased, broadly flat QoQ and YoY.
- Delhi NCR recorded the sharpest increase (⏫106%) among the major markets, more than doubling its leasing volume YoY.
- Hyderabad continued to grow (🔼47%) YoY strongly, although leasing fell (🔻42%) QoQ.
- Mumbai and Chennai saw YoY declines of 🔻20% and 🔻23%, respectively.
We continue to see more and more reports about housing prices rising 📈 YoY across our major cities.
But rarely do we get to hear how our basic civic infra is crumbling and weather conditions are worsening 📉DoD (decade on decade), making our cities increasingly unlivable with time.
This decoupling can't continue forever.
Or can it?
While Mumbai folks are dreaming of seeing Gurgaon real estate finally getting humbled, but Gurugram seems to be winning the battle against the "erstwhile" king of Indian real estate, Mumbai.
Because Gurugram property prices has now already surpassed Mumbai, with staggering 450% 📈 growth since 2020.
So now Mumbai real estate has a new challenge... to now compete with Gurugram!
After all, Gurugram is already on its way to beat New York, Singapore, Monaco and every other expensive real estate market on the planet.
Ab Manhattan door nahi hai... bas NCR ke builders aur unke brokers ko lage rehna hain... continue the bombardments of reels/shorts/posts... with thumbnail "Gurgaon property prices will keep going up".
Decade long price stagnancy has humbled us in MMR.
Gurgaon's turn will come.
@PropertyDecoder
Whether you believe it or not, many/most builders in India seem determined to extract as much as they can from homebuyers, first through hidden/random charges, years of delay, then through secondary-sale/transfer charges, and later even through maintenance charges for years like their fixed rental income, often while delivering only the bare minimum.
So, until the builder is finally out of the picture, homebuyers find themselves facing one layer of extraction after another.
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I don't know if Gurgaon or NCR developers will ever get humbled, but absolutely sure they'd never say something like this publicly, despite knowing the game.
"Project book kara lo sir... ab toh RERA bhi hain..."
RERA hain na?
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Once, I met a very senior sales guy from a developer that was then considered one of the top developers in NCR. His analysis was almost exactly the same...
"Input costs are rising, so we’ll keep passing them on to buyers through higher prices. Buyers will eventually have no choice but to buy at those prices and they will keep buying..."
This was during the (last) 2010-2012 real estate cycle.
We all know what happened afterwards... demand weakened, sales slowed, and the market eventually went through a prolonged price correction.
The problem with this argument is that it assumes buyers will "magically" absorb every increase in the cost structure.
But they don’t.
At some point, affordability becomes the constraint. The number of willing buyers starts shrinking, the market gradually turns into a buyers' market, and builders and sellers begin to lose their pricing power.
Yes, land can become more expensive, construction can become more expensive, financing can become more expensive, developers and lenders can demand higher returns.
But they can only pass those costs on to buyers as long as they retain pricing power, something that usually happens during an upcycle.
Once that pricing power starts weakening, rising costs don't automatically translate into higher selling prices.
None of this guarantees that buyers will have the purchasing power or the willingness to pay whatever price the industry wants to charge.
Costs can rise indefinitely on paper but buyers' ability to pay cannot.
And when the two diverge far enough, the market eventually has to adjust.
The mistake is assuming that because the cost of producing a house keeps rising, the buyer's ability to pay must rise with it.
History has shown that it doesn't.
There was a time when Total Environment was being marketed as one of Bengaluru's top developers, and projects were sold on the strength of that reputation.
Yet, somewhere along the way, it ended up at the bottom, breaking the myth that being considered among the top means you can't eventually fall.
Yes, a project being delayed or stuck is a problem. But the biggest problem is delayed justice.
And when justice can take years and even decades, that too despite having regulator and laws in place, what protection does a homebuyer really have?
So until the system becomes capable of delivering timely accountability, why not stop allowing the sale of under-construction projects altogether?
Maybe "completion before sales" should be the rule, not the exception.
Because first ensure a "Total Environment of accountability, promised delivery and hassle free living" rather than letting builders create a "Total Environment of pending promises/distrust, years of waiting, and endless frustration!"
And why not?
You rarely see this kind of business model in other industries... taking lakhs and crores of rupees from customers upfront and then, despite having years to deliver, still failing to deliver what was promised.
They have everything going for them... still own the same land, financial resources, political influence, and large legal teams capable of fighting every possible battle for years.
And that's why have never understood why anyone sympathises with builders. Why?
Because when things go wrong, it is usually the homebuyer who has the most to lose.
Not just their most of their wealth, but often the most productive years of their lives... spent running from pillar to post, fighting a system that can take years to get their homes, which they have already paid for!
So, builders can still move on and live comfortably, while keeping homebuyers stuck at their mercy for years!
#TotalEnvironmentDisaster
Was asked to post this because of the scale of scam that happens in the Indian real estate space.
Selling my 3BHK ultra-luxury apartment approx 1950 sqft super built-up high-floor unit with livingdining kitchen 3 bedrooms with attached baths utility area two covered car parks in That Quiet Earth by Total EnvironmentPrice ₹92 lakhs not negotiable. Builder has assured a quick handover by 2040.
I am exiting purely out of desperation, after waiting 11 long years for handover the relentless EMIs rent have pushed me into a financial crisis I need funds urgently for personal reasons.
This Quiet Earth has become a total environmental disaster for me the silence is deafening the wait is endless and the financial pressure is slowly burying me. Before this project completely starves me out and puts me under the quiet earth for good I am walking away. DM for floor plan exact unit details and further information Serious buyers only.
Update : RERA complaint has been filed. Builder has contacted is in discussion to pay delay compensation as per RERA Calculator. As on date 60 complaints on builder (Source RERA website) Goodluck to all those interested in Total Environment builder. Thank you for tremendous response.
Project sold out declare karte karte ab builders Tower sold out par aa gaye hain! 😄
The moment top builder declares a project "sold out", others start trying to create their own sold-out headlines too.
But perhaps, looking at the market, they are beginning to hesitate a little, while still not quite ready to let go of the "sold out" narrative.
So don't be surprised if the next headline reads... "10 Floors Sold Out"! 😄
And now waiting to see what gets declared "sold out" next, until the entire "sold out" narrative itself is finally sold out.
Real estate stocks crashed today on the news of the RBI rate hike!
But yes, apparently real estate can never crashes like this and also Indian real estate is supposedly not even that interest-rate sensitive.
The irony is that when housing sales are already slowing, even factors that may not have a huge direct impact can push sentiment further down.
And when sentiment weakens during a slowdown, buyers postpone purchases, sales slow further, and the slowdown can reinforce itself even more strongly, often resulting in a "gradual" price correction rather than the crash we see in financial markets.
Would be interesting to see how things unfold over the coming months.
India's top 2 startup hubs, Bengaluru and Gurugram, seem to be competing to outdo each other, not in just startups, but in garbage-strewn roads.
A Bengaluru commuter has highlighted the poor condition of Wind Tunnel Road, showing a stretch littered with garbage, rubble and debris along the roadside.
The video, shared by Instagram user recorded while travelling on the road from Murgeshpalya towards Embassy Golf Links Business Park. The creator says the stretch is part of her daily commute to work, highlighting the difficult conditions faced by people who use the road regularly. #Bengaluru #Garbage
Markets rarely give everyone an exit at the top.
But in a falling market, the first person to accept that the cycle has turned usually takes the smallest loss.
The last investor waiting for confirmation often pays the highest price for being convinced.
Earlier, whenever I shared that many real estate investors(traders) in NCR were cancelling their units in under-construction projects, some people would go after me.
But now, Gurgaon realtors themselves have started sharing screenshots saying that traders are cancelling their units even after taking a 10% loss.
Which means these investors aren't even finding buyers in the market at 10% below their booking price.
But weren't the same ecosystem who kept saying that once builders increased their prices, that automatically became the market price?
Even justifying by creating hell lot of a FOMO.... "this is the best price you are getting today... you won't get it tomorrow... you will miss the bus..."
And whenever someone questioned the absurd valuations, the answer was.... "we believe in contrarian investing..."
So where did that "best price" go?
And where did all those "contrarian investors" go?
The truth is, in most projects launched around mid to peak stage, investors are struggling to find buyers at even 20% below those levels today.
Because a lot of that valuation was simply air.
And that's exactly how a "bubble" is created.
Yes, from the outside, it can look remarkably strong... perfectly intact, almost untouchable, and as if there’s infinite room for it to grow bigger.
Eventually, that air has to escape, and the bubble was always destined to burst.
But a bubble doesn't need a hammer to burst.
Again, it can take time but sometimes, all it takes is the slightest prick to bring the entire illusion crashing down first, followed by the inevitable price correction.
This trader % in NCR real estate is probably one of the highest ever acknowledged publicly by an Indian real estate industry leader in recent times, BUT yet, this is actually quite conservative.
In NCR, except for a handful of projects, 70-80% of buyers easily are traders/speculators, not more than 10-15% are long-term investors, and whatever remains might be genuine end-users.
Not seeing this for first time, in last cycle it has been very similar.
Yes, former MD of Tata Realty knows how big % of traders in NCR real estate enters in any cycle, coz maybe Tata had a hard time selling some of its projects launched during the peak of the previous upcycle, perhaps one reason why the company has been relatively quiet on new launches in NCR during the recent cycle.
NCR builders know this very well and many of them actually prefer a high % of traders among buyers, because it helps keep establishing and reinforcing inflated price levels for as long as the greater fool theory continues to work.
Otherwise, why would some builders be raising loans to complete the very projects they are publicly declaring "sold out"?
Mumbai seems to be regaining office leasing momentum after nearly a decade of relatively subdued growth.
Maybe the completion of big infra projects has played a significant role, or also maybe real estate prices in other major cities have grown significantly and gradually narrowed the gap with Mumbai?
