FADE HIM AGAIN ๐
๐ PK Dish #3 (10/24)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐.๐ ๐๐๐ + ๐๐ฌ๐ญ
Cooked w/ @SC_FFB ๐ค @AltLineDemon
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Greenโs role in Phoenix is still built much more around scoring than creating for others or crashing the glass. He averaged just 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists last season and has stayed under this line in 8 of his last 12 games while averaging only 7.0 R+A. In the season opener, Green finished with just 2 rebounds and 3 assists despite remaining involved offensively and attempting 12 shots.
- Since joining Phoenix, Green is averaging only 5.5 potential assists and 6.2 rebound chances per game when sharing the floor with Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks. Those opportunity numbers already make it difficult for a score-first guard to consistently reach 9 combined rebounds and assists, and Phoenix has added even more competition for those stats. Miles Bridges gives them another versatile wing who can handle, rebound and create, while their active 7โ2 rookie center adds another strong presence on the glass.
- Greenโs play style fits the under as well. He is naturally a score-first guard who tends to finish possessions rather than consistently create them for teammates. Booker remains the primary offensive initiator, while Green is often attacking closeouts, getting downhill or looking for his own shot. He can have a productive scoring game without coming close to this number in the peripheral categories.
- Golden State has played at a bottom-10 pace through its first two games after finishing 11th-slowest in pace last season. Green has stayed under this line in 10 of 15 games against teams in the bottom half of the league in pace, and a slower game naturally reduces the total number of possessions available for rebounds and assists.
- Golden Stateโs smaller lineups create some risk for extra guard rebounds, but Green still needs 9 combined rebounds and assists to beat us. He only had 5 RA in the season opener against Portland, and with Booker controlling most of the creation, Bridges and Brooks competing for secondary opportunities and Phoenix adding more size around him, we donโt see enough rebound or assist volume for a score-first player like Green to consistently get there. We like him to stay under this line against Golden State.
Best Odds: -139 DraftKings
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
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LET HARPER COOK ๐งโ๐ณ
๐ NBA Dish #2 (10/24)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ + ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @ClipSetNBA ๐ฏ
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Would play this at 21.5 as well. Harper has looked ready to take another step in his second season, and San Antonio has given him the opportunity to do it. He has been inserted into the starting lineup alongside DeโAaron Fox and Stephon Castle, playing 32+ minutes with 15+ FGA in both games. Harper has cleared this line in both, recording 25 PR against Oklahoma City and 23 against Houston while averaging 19 points and 5 rebounds.
- The increased workload is the biggest reason I like this spot. Harper has cleared this line in 13/17 career games with 13+ FGA and 15/20 games when playing at least 28 minutes, including 10 straight. He has been productive in different ways to open the season, scoring 18 with 7 rebounds against OKC before putting up 20 points with only 3 rebounds against Houston. His ability to contribute on the glass gives us another path when the scoring isnโt completely there.
- Dallas allowed the 2nd-most combined points and rebounds to opposing guards last season while ranking 20th in defensive rating and playing at one of the fastest paces in basketball. Guards have already been able to produce against them to begin this season ๐
โ
Amen Thompson: 26 PR | Line: 24.5
โ
Andrew Nembhard: 18 PR | Line: 16.5
โ
Tyrese Haliburton: 24 PR | Line: 22.5
- Harper failed to clear this line against Dallas as a rookie, but he played 25+ minutes in only one of those games. Even with the smaller role, he shot 50% from the field, 40% from three and grabbed 4+ rebounds in every matchup. This is a completely different version of Harper now, with San Antonio deliberately using the Fox, Castle and Harper three-guard lineup and trusting him with significantly more minutes and shot volume.
- Dallas enters this matchup short-handed as well, with Dereck Lively II out and Cooper Flagg expected to miss after injuring his shoulder Friday. The blowout potential with San Antonio favored heavily is the main concern, but Harper has been getting legitimate starter usage and has already produced against two much tougher defenses. We like him to stay involved offensively, contribute on the glass and go over this line against Dallas.
Best Odds: -123 DraftKings
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
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NBA DISH OF THE DAY ๐งโ๐ณ
๐ PK Dish #1 (10/24)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @DDOGGSTACKS ๐ค
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Great spot for Allen here. His scoring comes from doing damage around the rim, whether itโs through PNR opportunities, rolling hard to the basket, finishing lobs and cleaning up offensive rebounds. He thrives on high-percentage looks, and Clevelandโs guards can create plenty of those chances by drawing defenders and opening up lanes to the basket.
- Last season, 66% of his attempts came in the restricted area and 92% came inside 10 feet. Brooklyn ranked 24th defending the restricted area, 24th in paint points allowed, 23rd against PNR roll men and 26th against putbacks, giving Allen favorable matchups across nearly every way he typically scores.
- The addition of James Harden has been a great fit for Allenโs game. Hardenโs ability to draw the opposing center toward the ball creates easy opportunities through pocket passes, lobs and dump-offs, while Donovan Mitchell can create many of those same looks. Allen has averaged 18.1 points across 14 regular-season games alongside Harden, and against defenses ranked outside the top 10 in points allowed to centers, he has cleared this line in 10/10 games while averaging 19.7 points.
- Allen opened the season with 14 points on 6/10 shooting against Philadelphia while adding 3 offensive rebounds. He doesnโt need a large amount of touches to score because so many of his opportunities are high-percentage looks at the rim. His offensive rebounding gives him another path through second-chance points, which stands out against a Brooklyn defense that already had trouble finishing possessions in its opener.
- In the Netsโ season opener, Charlotte attacked Brooklyn inside immediately, shooting 17/22 at the rim. Moussa Diabatรฉ finished with 17 points on 7/11 shooting while grabbing 5 offensive rebounds, showing how much success an active interior big can have against this frontcourt. DayโRon Sharpe gives Brooklyn size, but asking him and Julius Randle to contain Allen and Evan Mobley around the rim while dealing with Harden and Mitchell in ball screens creates a difficult defensive assignment.
- The matchup history against Brooklyn is another reason to like this spot. Allen has gone over in 7 of his 10 career H2H meetings against the Nets, averaging 15.3 points per game. This includes 5 straight H2H games where Allen scored 13+ points, averaging 19.2 PPG. With that track record and a scoring style built around efficient looks near the rim, we like Allen to get it done here.
Best Odds: -120 FanDuel / Onyx Odds | -115 Novig
Available on PrizePicks / Underdog / Sleeper / Chalkboard DFS
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
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THESE ONLY CASH ON CHALKBOARD ๐ธ
The Moneyball card can be applied to an entry and adds +1 point for every made 3. Itโs already saved 4 of my NBA plays:
Curry o24.5 Points
w/ Moneyball: 27 โ
| Actual: 24 โ
Harden o18.5 Points
w/ Moneyball: 19 โ
| Actual: 16 โ
George o17.5 Points
w/ Moneyball: 18 โ
| Actual: 15 โ
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w/ Moneyball: 8 โ
| Actual: 6 โ
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NBA Recap | +1.28u ๐
โ
Jaime Jaquez Jr. o24.5 PRA
โ
Zion Williamson o22.5 Pts+Ast
โ Jalen Johnson o16.5 Reb+Ast
โ Jarice Walker o3.5 Rebounds
โ
.65u Curry x Johnson CB Moneyball
โ
.6u George x Zion CB Moneyball
Loved the reads on JJJ & Zion, both cooked tonight. Jalen Johnson cashes if not for the blowout as he came up 2 RA nshort. Walker was a trap as he was non existent on the glass. Moneyball slips put us in the green ๐ค
NBA Prop Menu ๐ (10/23)
$40 to a random LIKE if we go 4-0 โค๏ธโ๐ฅ
๐ฝ๏ธ Jaime Jaquez Jr. o24.5 PRA
๐ฝ๏ธ Zion Williamson o22.5 Pts+Ast
๐ฝ๏ธ Jalen Johnson o16.5 Reb+Ast
๐ฝ๏ธ Jarice Walker o3.5 Rebounds
LETS FEAST ๐งโ๐ณ
BIG Z COMES THROUGH ๐ธ
โ
Zion Williamson over 22.5 Pt+Ast โ
15 points in the second half to cash the people out ๐ค
Back to back winners with @KBProps ๐ค
โค๏ธ IF YOU TAILED!
BELIEVE IN BIG Z ๐ช
๐ PK Dish #1 (10/23)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฆ๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐ญ๐ฌ + ๐๐ฌ๐ญ
Cooked w/ @KBProps ๐ค
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Zion is coming off a pretty solid performance in Game 1 of the season against the Indiana Pacers, where he scored 22 points on 16 FGA and racked up 3 assists in 32 minutes.
- That is amazing volume for Zion, as with even 14+ FGA heโs gone over this line in his last 22 STRAIGHT games, averaging over 28.7 PA per game.
- Honestly, whenever he just plays solid minutes, he performs pretty well. With 30+ minutes played, heโs over this line in 24 of his last 30 games and 26 of his last 30 road games, averaging 28.3 PA per game.
- Now he gets a matchup against the Utah Jazz, who are allowing the 3rd-MOST PA in the league to opposing PFs. Against teams that rank bottom 5 in this category, with 27+ minutes played, heโs over this line in his last 17 STRAIGHT games, averaging 32.2 PA per game.
- Zion has absolutely DOMINATED the Jazz in his career. With just 12+ minutes played, heโs gone over this line in his last 6 STRAIGHT games against them since 2023, averaging 29.5 PA per game.
- Love for him to score tomorrow, and to be honest, I think he could clear this line just in points alone. I really like the addition of assists here too, as heโs averaged 7.5 assists per game against them, and we would need just 3 to have an edge with taking the PA here.
- Utah ranks 29th and 30th in defensive efficiency in the paint and restricted area, which is where Zion scores over 95% of his points from. Check out their defensive rankings versus different play types and how much of Zionโs scoring comes from those play types โฌ๏ธ
- 28th vs Free Throws | 21% of points
- 24th vs Isolation | 16% of points
- 30th vs Transition | 11% of points
- 28th vs Cuts | 11% of points
- Overall, love to back Zion in this matchup tomorrow to score and dominate, but also rack up some assists. Like I said, he could easily clear this PA line just in points alone.
Best Odds: -114 FanDuel
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
Use code PROPKITCHEN for 25% off your first purchase!
๐ฃ Turn notifications on for daily prop bets!
#NBA #NBAPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #GamblingX
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Curry x Johnson Moneyball โ
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๐ฝ๏ธ Jalen Johnson 7+ Rebounds
Used the Moneyball card on Curry๐ฐ
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