Imagine a world where instead of looking at Nvidia as a semi company but it becomes the dominant computing platform moving into the 2030s. Companies will want control over their IP by bringing compute onsite No one will get fired for buying Nvidia for on prem computing solutions.

People are using AI to make their smart TVs dumb again techcrunch.com/2026/10/19/pe… via @techcrunch @sharptechpod

While it would appear that govenmental IT systems would be ripe for disruption with the advancement of AI coding abilities, the problem is much deeper than just code replacement.

Today's thought for the day.

The "market" is very like a human in that it always looking for the next shoe to drop. It takes a headline and immediately reacts and then media fans the flame of uncertainty making the reaction even more severe. Whether it tariffs, wars or data centers, the reaction is the same.

Many equate the use of "agent swarms" as an acclerator of intelligence. This is no doubt having mutliple "intelligent" actors working on a problem is beneficial. However just like companies which attract the most talent there are other factors when considering the impact.

The 25 "experts" who track and forcast Nvidia's revenues were over a 100% underestimating NVDA's revenues a year ago. They had NVDA's 2027 at $291B a year ago (grey line). Now they are estimating $667B. (green line). Look for NVDA to increase share buybacks and dividends.

AI will discover scientific breakthroughs humans haven't even imagined!! In The Eureka Machine, Richard Socher envisions “super intelligence” connecting knowledge, challenging assumptions, and accelerating discovery. The opportunity? Superhuman science guided by human values.

The Eureka Machine posits that humanity's future with artificial intelligence depends less on competing with machines for intellectual superiority and more on redefining what humans contribute to a world where intelligence is no longer exclusively human.

Scale matters. Being the largest market cap company keeps ETFs/Hedge funds from over indexing NVDA. NVDA stock price will improve as investors realize how NVDA is returning value to its shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks similar to move Apple made in the mid 2010s.

AI agents never get tired and do not care about failing. They have unlimited lives in game of finding a solution to the problem they are faced with. The pace of progress will accelerate as we learn how to point the agents at persistent problems.

The reason investing in biotech is difficult is because the odds are stacked against you. Can AI improve the odds of success by improving the develpement pipeline? Can AI take failed products and identify the toxic part of the product to turn a loss into a win?

As AI diffuses into the economy, companies are searching for the right business model depending on the market they are serving. Traditional perpetual (one-time) product licensing with on-premise deployment to subscription-based/recurring monetization was the 2010 model. 2030s?

Intelligence has many flavors. Humans will adapt.

Everyone has a calculator. Math is not edge when it comes to selecting compunders. The real work is being able to identify the "soft" metrics of a company's performance.

Jensen Huang pumping up the future of computing. First with @lexfridman xitter.cf/lexfridman/status/2110… And then with @altcap Brad Gerstner on X: "Banger dropping Thursday.🔥@BG2Pod

One of the benefits of being retired to be able to take 2+ hours walks and listen to investing related podcasts at 1.5X. @TheCompoundNews has great guests and they use an amazing chartist Chart Kid Matt to help visualize many important trends. From @mattcerminaro newsletter.

How much do you value your "privacy"? In a world where many products are "free", giving up your "privacy" creates huge consumer surplus. As consumers adapt to a world of personal agents, your "privacy" will reside with a trusted source.

In 2017 Dario Amodei produced an internal paper at OpenAI. Nine years later, the general direction of AI development has been correct.

One of the benefits of a buy and hold process for investments in stocks is that over time your "eyes" see new things. Over time your initial thesis and conviction will change as the headwinds/tailwinds for your company change. Do you have the courage to reassess your thesis?