Prediction Pro

Who wins the Senate? 🗳️ 40,000 simulations. 6 races that decide it. 10 places we disagree with the market. Updated daily 👉 predictionpro.com/midterms/m…

🚪 Wiles is out. Who's next? Chance each official leaves the Trump administration before 2027, per prediction markets: 🪖 Hegseth: 30.5% 🕵️ Patel: 24.5% (was 12.5% on Oct. 19) 📊 Lutnick: 18.5% 🏛️ Rubio: 13.5% (was 4.5%)

🇨🇴 Markets see a 1-in-5 chance of a US strike on Colombia 📈 21% by Dec. 31, per prediction markets ⏪ Up from 13% Wednesday

🏈 The Jaguars are a real Super Bowl contender 📈 10.5% to win it all, per prediction markets 🥉 4th-best odds in the league ⏪ Was ~6% Thursday morning Only the 49ers, Bills and Bears rate higher 👀

🇸🇪 Sweden's prime minister race just became a coin flip • Andersson: 52.5% (was ~72% on Wednesday) 📉 • Kristersson: 46.5% (was ~27%) 📈 • Two PM votes have already failed in parliament • Caretaker PM Kristersson reports to the Speaker Nov. 10, with a possible vote Nov. 13 👀

🏛️ Schumer's grip on the Senate is slipping • Markets: Schumer next Majority Leader 82.5% (was 90.5% Thursday night) 📉 • 7 incoming Dem senators have said or suggested they won't commit to him Still the favorite, but the cracks are showing

🇮🇱 Prediction markets are turning on Netanyahu • Next Israeli PM: Eisenkot 63.4% | Netanyahu 23.4% 📉 • Netanyahu out by June 2027: 63% • Neither bloc has 61 seats: Netanyahu's has 53, Eisenkot's 48 • Arab-led parties hold 19, and one has said it will back Eisenkot 👀 President Herzog picks who gets first shot at a government by Nov. 11

🌊 The blue wave keeps getting bigger • Reported projection now: D+13 and ~255 seats for Dems 👀 • Markets: Dems winning the popular vote by 14-16 pts is now the favorite at 54.5% (was ~20% this morning) 📈 • Would be the biggest midterm margin since 1974

🫧 Is the AI bubble about to pop? • Prediction market odds of an AI bubble burst in 2026: 10.3% 📈 • Up from 6.8% before today's chip selloff • By mid-2027? Traders say 20.5% 👀 Still a long shot… but the market is getting nervous

📉 AI chip stocks are getting hammered today • Nasdaq: down ~5% intraday • S&P 500: down ~3.5% • AMD -16%, Micron -15.7%, NVIDIA ~-7.5% 🔻 Prediction markets reacted fast 👇 • NVIDIA to be world's largest company on Dec. 31: 64.5% Tuesday ➝ 26% now • Apple: 35.5% ➝ 73.2% 🍎

🐘 The 2028 GOP race is getting interesting • Vance: 35.1% (was ~52% in early September) 📉 • Rubio: 21.8% (up from ~13% in mid-October) 📈 • DeSantis: 11.7% (tripled overnight after Election Day 👀) Vance is still the favorite… but the gap just got a lot smaller

🏦 Markets now see a December Fed HIKE as the likely call • Hike 25 bps: 77.5% 📈 • Hold: 21.5% 2 Fed officials already dissented for a hike in October 👀 Decision: Dec. 8-9 Watch for odds Movements 👉 predictionpro.com

🍎 Apple just passed NVIDIA in the race to be No. 1 on Dec. 31 • Apple: 60% (was 36% before Wednesday) • NVIDIA: 38% (was 64%) • Apple topped NVIDIA in market cap Wednesday: ~$5.12T vs ~$4.87T 💰 • NVIDIA earnings Nov. 17 is the next big swing 📅 Monitor all the Market 👉 predictionpro.com

🏔️ Alaska update: the market now has Peltola at 95% to win • Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan by 637 votes • Was ~71% on Election Day morning 📈 • Counting could run until Nov. 18 If she holds, Dems add another Senate seat 🔵

🚀 Jon Ossoff is the new 2028 Democratic frontrunner • Ossoff: 24.4% (was 14.6% on Sunday) • AOC: 15.4% • Newsom: 14.9% • ~$244K traded on Ossoff in the last 24 hours 💰

🤯 Mississippi went from 5% to 93% overnight • Market: Scott Colom (D) 93.3% to beat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith • Separated by just dozens of votes out of nearly 1 million 🗳️ • AP hasn't called it; affidavit ballots still being counted

🏔️ Alaska is still counting, and it could be the Dems' 55th Senate seat • Our model: Peltola 56% • Market: Peltola 96.3% 📈 • Peltola leads Sullivan by just 626 votes (48.0% to 47.7%) • Ranked-choice tabulation: Nov. 18 🗳️ Not called yet ⌛️

⚖️ With Dems taking the House, markets now favor a Trump impeachment • Impeached before term ends: 76.5% • By end of 2027: 60% • By June 2027: 37% • By end of 2026: 3.1% (new House isn't seated until Jan. 3) But removal? Just ~20%. That takes 67 Senate votes 🧮

☕ The morning after: our model went 10 for 11 in called Senate races • Hits: NC, GA, NH, ME, MI, OH, TX, KS, IA, FL 🎯 • Miss: South Carolina (we had Andrews at 42%; she won) Alaska still counting 👀