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The two months Kalshi priced parlays closest to fair were the first two months anyone could buy one.
Combos opened to everyone on 15 December. Through December and January the markup over fair value nearly vanishes, and from February it sits near 7% and hasn't left.
Buy a contract on Kalshi at 95 cents and the fee costs you 0.35% of your money. Buy one at 2 cents and it costs 6.9%.
The fee is worked out from the contract itself, so the less you paid for it, the bigger a share the fee takes.
Parlays are cheap by design. That's what stacking legs does to the price. The average parlay dollar goes in at 31 cents, where the fee takes 4.8%. Across every combo Kalshi has sold that comes to $140m.
Buyers of ordinary Kalshi contracts paid about half that, because the contracts they buy cost more.
Read full article: xitter.cf/PredictTerminal/status…
The worst time to buy a parlay on Kalshi is the evening. The best is mid-morning.
In July it ran 4.9% over fair value at 10am and 19.2% at 10pm. That holds when you compare like with like: inside matched cells of the same series, leg count and price band, 45 of 47 rise from morning to evening.
Overnight, when almost nothing is trading, it sits around 7%.
We can't say why. Quotes on Kalshi are private between the requester and each maker, and by Kalshi's own docs the makers can't see each other's, so there's no way to count who was bidding at 4am.
Read full article: xitter.cf/PredictTerminal/status…
Every leg you add to a parlay makes the price worse, and it compounds.
On Kalshi a two-leg parlay costs about what its legs cost. Four legs, 2% over. Ten legs, 14% over. Twenty-five legs, 55% over.
We checked 55 million parlays against the price of their own legs at the moment each one traded. Eleven months, all from Kalshi's public data.
That markup plus Kalshi's taker fee comes to 10.6% of everything a parlay buyer stakes. Sportsbook parlays hold about 17.8% in the six states that break parlays out separately. Kalshi is still the cheaper place to buy one.
Method and caveats: xitter.cf/PredictTerminal/status…
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This market is trending all over the feed today and many people clearly misunderstand or don't read the resolution rules.
We're experimenting with alternative ways to show and simulate resolution criteria, check this out 👇
BREAKING: The odds of Jesus Christ returning before GTA VI soar to nearly 50%.
Are you ready for the second coming?
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The market resolves to 50/50 If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Bettors may simply be betting on the market resolving to 50/50 rather than on BTC actually hitting $1M before GTA 6.
If GTA 6 releases after July 31, 2026 then bettors still make money.
polymarket.com/event/what-wil…
Same search. Different result.
Beneath finds what matters.
You're trying to find prediction markets about US foreign policy.
You type what feels natural: "American foreign policy"
Here's what Polymarket shows you:
Baseball awards. Grammys. College football.
Zero actual foreign policy markets.
---
Maybe you worded it wrong?
You try "US foreign policy" instead:
Better... but still broken:
✓ Venezuela military (relevant)
✓ Zelensky/Putin (relevant)
❌ Polymarket US launch (irrelevant)
❌ Bitcoin reserve (irrelevant)
❌ Aliens exist (wtf?)
And it STILL misses obvious markets:
- Trump meeting Xi Jinping
- Trump meeting Putin
- US strikes Iran
- Multiple active geopolitical markets
---
This is the problem with keyword search.
You have to know the EXACT words used in market titles.
You have to search multiple times with different phrasings.
You miss markets because they use different vocabulary.
It's like searching the internet before Google existed.
---
Prediction markets are becoming infrastructure for collective intelligence.
They price the probability of wars, policy changes, economic shifts.
But if traders can't FIND the relevant markets, the system breaks down.
Capital can't flow to where conviction exists. Insights get trapped in isolated silos. The network effect dies.
---
We need smart search for prediction markets.
Search by concept, not keywords.
Map relationships between markets.
Understand what "foreign policy" actually means in context.
---
This is what we're building at Beneath.
Advanced search is just the entry point.
We're building the full intelligence layer:
- Search by concept, not keywords
- Map relationships between markets
- Track capital flow across networks
- Detect logical contradictions
- Predict cascade patterns
The infrastructure prediction markets need.
You're trying to find prediction markets about US foreign policy.
You type what feels natural: "American foreign policy"
Here's what Polymarket shows you:
Baseball awards. Grammys. College football.
Zero actual foreign policy markets.
---
Maybe you worded it wrong?
You try "US foreign policy" instead:
Better... but still broken:
✓ Venezuela military (relevant)
✓ Zelensky/Putin (relevant)
❌ Polymarket US launch (irrelevant)
❌ Bitcoin reserve (irrelevant)
❌ Aliens exist (wtf?)
And it STILL misses obvious markets:
- Trump meeting Xi Jinping
- Trump meeting Putin
- US strikes Iran
- Multiple active geopolitical markets
---
This is the problem with keyword search.
You have to know the EXACT words used in market titles.
You have to search multiple times with different phrasings.
You miss markets because they use different vocabulary.
It's like searching the internet before Google existed.
---
Prediction markets are becoming infrastructure for collective intelligence.
They price the probability of wars, policy changes, economic shifts.
But if traders can't FIND the relevant markets, the system breaks down.
Capital can't flow to where conviction exists. Insights get trapped in isolated silos. The network effect dies.
---
We need smart search for prediction markets.
Search by concept, not keywords.
Map relationships between markets.
Understand what "foreign policy" actually means in context.
---
This is what we're building at Beneath.
Advanced search is just the entry point.
We're building the full intelligence layer:
- Search by concept, not keywords
- Map relationships between markets
- Track capital flow across networks
- Detect logical contradictions
- Predict cascade patterns
The infrastructure prediction markets need.