@PredictIt

Buy and sell political futures. PSAs: - 95% ≠ Certainty - Forecasts ≠ Future - Turnout = Outcome

 Washington, DC
Predictit.org
Joined November 2013
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New Poll 🚨: Abbott +4. Traders: down 16¢. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% to 45% in an Emerson College poll. Traders have Republicans at 74¢, down from about 90¢ in late July. #TexasGovernor #Elections #AbbottHinojosa
Grayscale photos of Gina Hinojosa (D) at 29¢ and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) at 74¢ to win Texas governor. Headline: Poll: Abbott +4. Traders: down 16¢.

ALT Grayscale photos of Gina Hinojosa (D) at 29¢ and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) at 74¢ to win Texas governor. Headline: Poll: Abbott +4. Traders: down 16¢.

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Alaska hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1998. Traders have Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 85¢ for Alaska governor. Three Republicans split the ranked-choice ballot, and Trump-backed Bernadette Wilson (R) is at 14¢, down from 24¢ on Wednesday. #AlaskaGov #Elections
Grayscale campaign photos of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 85¢ and Bernadette Wilson (R) at 14¢ to win Alaska governor. Headline: Last Democrat: 1998. Traders: 85¢.

ALT Grayscale campaign photos of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 85¢ and Bernadette Wilson (R) at 14¢ to win Alaska governor. Headline: Last Democrat: 1998. Traders: 85¢.

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Poll: Jackson +1. Traders: Bottoms. AJC/UGA poll: Rick Jackson (R) 46%, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 45%. Traders: Democrats at 60¢, up from 48¢ on Monday. Trump comes to Perry, Ga., on Saturday. #GeorgiaGovernor #Elections #BottomsJackson
Grayscale campaign photos of Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 60¢ and Rick Jackson (R) at 40¢ to win Georgia governor. Headline: Poll: Jackson +1. Traders: Bottoms.

ALT Grayscale campaign photos of Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 60¢ and Rick Jackson (R) at 40¢ to win Georgia governor. Headline: Poll: Jackson +1. Traders: Bottoms.

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Traders are moving to Acton. Ohio Democrats: 80¢ Tuesday night, 82¢ Thursday open, 88¢ now. In late July this race was a coin flip. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved it to Leans Democratic. Ohio hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006. #ActonRamaswamy #Elections #Ohio
PredictIt graphic. Headline: The ad stayed up. So did Acton. Amy Acton (D) at 88¢ to win Ohio, with a 90-day chart marking 80¢ on Tuesday. Grayscale campaign photo of Acton on the right.

ALT PredictIt graphic. Headline: The ad stayed up. So did Acton. Amy Acton (D) at 88¢ to win Ohio, with a 90-day chart marking 80¢ on Tuesday. Grayscale campaign photo of Acton on the right.

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We asked DC for their most unpopular political predictions. They did not hold back. 👀 Some are bold. Some are… very bold. Which one do you think actually happens?
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Lula’s closing argument is a 40-hour week. Brazil’s Senate passed his bill cutting the maximum from 44 hours, and 54% of Brazilians like it, per an AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News. Traders still have Lula at 20¢ to win Sunday’s runoff. #LulaBolsonaro #Brazil2026 #Elections
PredictIt graphic, Brazil, Lula’s closing argument. Photo of Lula in a Brazil jersey giving a thumbs-up. Lula 20 cents to win Sunday’s runoff. A 40-hour week, and 54% like it. AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News.

ALT PredictIt graphic, Brazil, Lula’s closing argument. Photo of Lula in a Brazil jersey giving a thumbs-up. Lula 20 cents to win Sunday’s runoff. A 40-hour week, and 54% like it. AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News.

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France had a weekend of riots. The first poll since, by Ifop-Fiducial, barely moved. Traders did. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is at 58¢ to win next spring’s presidential vote, up from 54¢ over the weekend. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is at 24¢. #France2027 #FrenchPresident #LePen
PredictIt graphic, France president 2027. Watercolor portrait of Marine Le Pen. Le Pen 58 cents, up 4 cents since the weekend. France rioted. Le Pen ticked up. The first post-riot poll, by Ifop-Fiducial, barely moved.

ALT PredictIt graphic, France president 2027. Watercolor portrait of Marine Le Pen. Le Pen 58 cents, up 4 cents since the weekend. France rioted. Le Pen ticked up. The first post-riot poll, by Ifop-Fiducial, barely moved.

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Trump endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Oct. 18. Traders didn’t follow. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is at 60¢ to be Israel’s next prime minister, up from 50¢ that day. Netanyahu is at 45¢, right where he started. Israel votes Tuesday. #Israel2026 #Election
PredictIt graphic, Israel votes Tuesday. Trump endorsed Netanyahu. Traders didn’t follow. Channel 12 poll: 64% of Israelis say the endorsement won’t affect their vote. Next prime minister: Gadi Eisenkot 60 cents, up 10 cents since Oct. 18. Benjamin Netanyahu 45 cents, no change since Oct. 18.

ALT PredictIt graphic, Israel votes Tuesday. Trump endorsed Netanyahu. Traders didn’t follow. Channel 12 poll: 64% of Israelis say the endorsement won’t affect their vote. Next prime minister: Gadi Eisenkot 60 cents, up 10 cents since Oct. 18. Benjamin Netanyahu 45 cents, no change since Oct. 18.

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Brazil votes Sunday, and the polls have it tied. Quaest has right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44%. Traders have Flávio at 82¢ to win the runoff. Since 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round has come back to win one. #LulaBolsonaro
PredictIt graphic, Brazil runoff Sunday. Watercolor portraits of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro 82 cents, highlighted as the leader. Lula 20 cents. Tied in the polls. The market isn’t close. Quaest poll: Flávio 45%, Lula 44%.

ALT PredictIt graphic, Brazil runoff Sunday. Watercolor portraits of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro 82 cents, highlighted as the leader. Lula 20 cents. Tied in the polls. The market isn’t close. Quaest poll: Flávio 45%, Lula 44%.

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Michigan’s Senate debate is tonight: Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D). Traders have El-Sayed at 70¢ going in. Watch the price move live. #MichiganSenate #ElSayedRogers #SenateControl
Candidate portrait from Michigan's Senate race featuring Abdul El-Sayed (D).

ALT Candidate portrait from Michigan's Senate race featuring Abdul El-Sayed (D).

Candidate portrait from Michigan's Senate race featuring Mike Rogers (R).

ALT Candidate portrait from Michigan's Senate race featuring Mike Rogers (R).

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Trump’s super PAC has moved $277 million since Sept. 1, per Bloomberg. Its biggest Senate target is Texas, at $36 million. Traders still favor state Rep. James Talarico (D) at 66¢, against Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) at 38¢. #TalaricoPaxton #SenateControl #TXSenate
PredictIt graphic, Texas Senate. Watercolor portraits of James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Talarico 66 cents, highlighted as the leader. Paxton 38 cents. $36 million into Texas. Traders still favor Talarico.

ALT PredictIt graphic, Texas Senate. Watercolor portraits of James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Talarico 66 cents, highlighted as the leader. Paxton 38 cents. $36 million into Texas. Traders still favor Talarico.

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Cook moved three Senate races Tuesday. Traders held their favorites: Mississippi, Solid to Likely R: Hyde-Smith (R) 88¢ South Carolina, Likely to Lean R: Graham (R) 84¢ Minnesota, Likely to Lean D: Flanagan (D) 86¢ Sabato moved 28 House races toward Democrats. House: D 90¢
PredictIt graphic: Cook moved three Senate races. Traders held their favorites. Mississippi, Solid to Likely Republican, Republicans to hold, 88 cents. South Carolina, Likely to Lean Republican, Republicans to hold, 84 cents. Minnesota, Likely to Lean Democrat, Democrats to hold, 86 cents.

ALT PredictIt graphic: Cook moved three Senate races. Traders held their favorites. Mississippi, Solid to Likely Republican, Republicans to hold, 88 cents. South Carolina, Likely to Lean Republican, Republicans to hold, 84 cents. Minnesota, Likely to Lean Democrat, Democrats to hold, 86 cents.

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Vivek Ramaswamy (R) will spend $4 million on an ad featuring the estranged mother of his opponent, Amy Acton (D). The backlash crossed party lines. Traders moved toward Acton. Democrats are at 80¢ to win Ohio’s governor’s race, up from 75¢ Tuesday morning. #OctoberSurprise
PredictIt graphic, Ohio. One ad, $4 million. Traders moved toward Acton. Ohio governor, Amy Acton (D), 80 cents, up 5 cents since Tuesday morning. Ohio Senate special, Sherrod Brown (D), 69 cents, up 2 cents since Tuesday morning.

ALT PredictIt graphic, Ohio. One ad, $4 million. Traders moved toward Acton. Ohio governor, Amy Acton (D), 80 cents, up 5 cents since Tuesday morning. Ohio Senate special, Sherrod Brown (D), 69 cents, up 2 cents since Tuesday morning.

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Libertarians are polling in the low single digits in Texas, Kansas and Iowa, and their voters lean Republican, The Hill reports. In Kansas, Emerson has Adam Hamilton (D) up 45% to 43%, with Libertarian David Graham at 4%. Traders still have Sen. Roger Marshall (R) at 60¢.
PredictIt graphic, third-party spoilers. Small shares. Close races. Kansas: Libertarian David Graham, 4%. Emerson poll has Hamilton (D) at 45% and Marshall (R) at 43%. Traders: Marshall 60 cents. Ohio: Greg Levy of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, 5%, promoted with $1.58 million from a GOP-linked super PAC. Traders: Brown 67 cents. Texas: Libertarian Ted Brown, 3% of Republicans and almost no Democrats. Traders: Talarico 64 cents.

ALT PredictIt graphic, third-party spoilers. Small shares. Close races. Kansas: Libertarian David Graham, 4%. Emerson poll has Hamilton (D) at 45% and Marshall (R) at 43%. Traders: Marshall 60 cents. Ohio: Greg Levy of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, 5%, promoted with $1.58 million from a GOP-linked super PAC. Traders: Brown 67 cents. Texas: Libertarian Ted Brown, 3% of Republicans and almost no Democrats. Traders: Talarico 64 cents.

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