Praevion

timechain > blockchain. personally I like timechain more than blockchain, as a more momentus word. xitter.cf/adam3us/status/1446405…

WARNING: BTC is vulnerable to a bank run! ⚠️ If a panic sets in; the vast majority of 33M on-chain users will not be able to exit The queue would in fact be 1.82 months long! Potentially even triggering a death spiral, annihilating investors; BTC's code & math do not lie: 🧵 All of these numbers can be independently verified, by looking at the BTC source code on your own full node! The Math: 🎓 The figure for on-chain BTC holders was taken from @glassnode's analysis on March 2023 The TPS calculation is based on Max Theoretical TPS: (Block size (1.66MB)/Transaction size (374B)) / Block time (10M) = TPS (7.75) We use the P2PKH TX format with 2 inputs & 2 outputs, to better represent an "average user" Even though Segwit allows for 4MB blocks this cannot all be filled with TXs, historically the largest BTC block filled with TXs was 1.66MB so we will use that number (1740636.16/374) / 600 = 7.75 TPS (rounding down to 7 as BTC cannot execute partial TXs) 7x60 (minutes) = 420x60 (hours) = 25200x24 (Days) = 604,800x30 (Months) = 18,144,000 (Monthly TXs) 33000000 (On-chain Users) / 18,144,000 (Monthly TXs) = 1.818 (months) The Reality: 💀 These are all extremely conservative estimates, as they assume zero network activity outside of these on-chain users exiting... It is important to understand that the BTC network cannot actually support month-long queues, it cannot even support week-long queues In reality, TXs would get stuck & eventually get dropped entirely (TXs drop after 3 days) Making it entirely impossible for smaller parties to exit, as only parties paying thousands of dollars for fees will get their TXs cleared in such a scenario (fee spike), such as large custodians & banks, as the capacity is finite, no matter how much people pay That is why self-custody over BTC is completely unsafe & we should be advising people against it! This will also only get worse as BTC surges in popularity, as most have no idea how deeply flawed BTC really is Death Spiral: 🌪 This type of panic would certainly also have a relationship with the price of BTC As a price drop would lead to a drop in the hash rate, as some miners would no longer be profitable, forcing them to shut down However, due to how the difficulty adjustment algorithm works; a 2-week readjustment period (measured in block time) A sudden drop in hash rate can severely affect the speed & capacity of the network, if half the miners left, for instance, block time would also drop in half & the readjustment period could take up to a month! Causing the queue to be over 3 months long, deepening the panic & causing the price to crash even more which in turn causes more miners to shut down, which would slow down the chain even more, causing the price to crash & even more miners shutting down, etc: a vicious cycle BTC's security budget is also unsustainable & will likely run out within the decade, something I have covered in far more depth elsewhere. This means that we have a definitive timeline, as a security budget crisis is very likely to trigger the death spiral scenario I have described here, that is if it does not happen before that L2s also offer zero solutions against this crisis from playing out, as "true BTC L2s" still require some form of interaction with the base layer in the form of an on-chain TX for self-custody Pure Greed: 🤑 There are literally ZERO use cases that can be supported by 7 TPS, making BTC by definition purely speculative. Unable to effect any real change in the world by virtue of it literally being useless For reference; FedWire & Chips on average do around 12 TPS (inter-bank settlement), PayPal does 200 (online payment), while VISA & Mastercard average at around 5k TPS (retail) All while BTC's crypto competitors can exceed 10k TPS, or even 500k TPS in some cases, all without sacrificing decentralization! There is no excuse anymore for keeping the limit this low, something I have covered extensively elsewhere Conclusion: Mass self-custody over BTC is a lie, even worse, it is a dangerous narrative to promote! The kinder narrative would be to warn people against self-custody on BTC, at least ETH got that right within their L2 paradigm (by promoting centralized solutions) The only way BTC can be adopted on mass is through centralized custodians & banks. So please do not pretend as if this is "freedom money". All that does is set more people up for absolute disaster when the inevitable collapse comes To make things even more tragic, this was never the original design, intent & vision for Bitcoin, it was hijacked along the way & completely perverted from its original goals I love Bitcoin & that is why we must speak out against the horrible monster BTC has become; the antithesis of all that Bitcoin used to stand for. As it was originally intended to be freedom money, "P2P Electronic Cash" as the Bitcoin Whitepaper so boldly stated! That is how far BTC has fallen Everything people project onto BTC is a lie, as BTC's tech & governance do not match their claims at all I will not tell you what alternative chains to adopt, as I am no shill, but I can with confidence warn people against BTC & if you insist on still investing in BTC do not self-custody! Personally & professionally as a crypto value investor, I would not touch BTC with a ten-foot pole, as it is clearly a toxic asset BTC is certainly doomed to collapse, as I see no viable path for change within the necessary timelines, there is, however, still much hope left on the horizon for cryptocurrency as a whole As Bitcoins original vision now thrives in its children instead! 🕊