Looking for businesses with high returns on capital in hopes of finding compounders. I'm starting with the A's and going through the Z's. Not investing advice.
Joined March 2022
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John has been writing about this business for quite some time and has absolutely drilled it.
Wrote some thoughts on $NRP and its capital return plans, the benefit of variable dividends vs buybacks (how you can create your own buyback here), and a few thoughts on their soda ash investment
My Q2 FY2026 Update on Adobe and Why I Bought Shares in the Business $ADBE open.substack.com/pub/possib…
1/2 Finally bought some $ADBE. Writeup on it will be out in the next week or so, but the TLDR is the business seems to be chugging right along IMO for the reasons listed below...
Don't forget that GE was one of the most valuable businesses on Earth at ~$500 billion at the turn of the century and ~$400 billion when Neutron Jack turned the keys over to Jeff Immelt in Sept. 2001. CAGRs from these base rates are in the neighborhood of 0.6% - 1.58% per year.
The break up of GE has created an impressive amount of shareholder value:
▫️In 2023, GE was worth $120B before splitting off into three. Those firms — GE Healthcare ($34B), GE Vernova ($212B) and GE Aerospace ($340B) — now a combined $586B (~5x).
▫️Combined $14B profit for GE Vernova (huge AI data centre demand for gas turbines) and GE Aerospace (sticky plane parts business) in 2025 was more than GE’s total profit the decade before splitting off.
▫️In 2019, GE sold majority stake in O&G services business Baker Hughes and it’s market cap is since up 3x to $60B.
▫️Same year, GE sold GE Transportation for $11B merged with Wabtec Corp, which is now worth $42B.
▫️In 2018, GE sold an on-site generator busienss to PE for $3B and up 5x to $15B now.
▫️A bunch of former GE Capital folk running similar business (aircraft lending, mid-market corproate) at Apollo.
1/2 The same could be said for Wal-Mart, Blockbuster for streaming content if both the deal with Enron had worked out and it acquired Netflix, McDonald's for fast food if it kept Chipotle, etc. This is one thing people forget...
Possible Value Research retweeted
Everybody wants a concentrated portfolio until their portfolio is cut in half while the market is near ATHs.
Are there any papers or data on people/teams applying the Superforecasting playbook in prediction markets?
New writeup on HomeMaid AB (XSAT: HOME B) $HOME
open.substack.com/pub/possib…
Someone needs to write a book about $RICK's five year run from FinTwit darling to its CEO and CFO resigning yesterday. What a wild ride.
1/3 I chatted it up with a guy who works at an asset management firm and told me he makes this much. He went on to say that his group is a cash cow, but his coworkers lack drive & have no incentive to do better. I responded by saying he should work at a hedge fund...
2/3 He said he wouldn't work at one because while the bonuses can be great, the starting salary is in the low $200k-$300k range & he "needed" the $750k to bankroll his lifestyle which included a 3-bedroom apartment, nanny, & kids at an elite private school.