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Joined December 2023
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$513,333 in burned equity as we have the first ever missed pick in the history of Grandissimo π¬
#CircaGrandissimo 2026 ππ Week 6 Selections
π: circasports.com/wp-content/uβ¦
Pick percentage rankings were pretty consistent this week across @splashsports four big contests
This is a great point that many overlook. And even those who do think about it may not understand why it matters. Since all teams' pick percentages are adjusted by the same relative amount, what changes?
Expected Value is what can change. Teams that were moderately picked and become chalky will affect EV differently than a low-owned team moving by the same relative amount.
You can see a real-life example of that in tonight's SuperContest Survivor picks. Before Dallas played, the single New England picker had the lowest EV (other than the Cowboys), but with the pool now down to 16 entries, it has become a slightly higher EV than all other picks.
The pctgs guessed and released in Survivor tonight mean nothing at face value. Effective pct is all that matter. This is a new week starting tomorrow. If Dallas pct is 33.3 pct for instance the numbers you see, need to have 33.3 pct added to each teams pct. So if you chose Houston thinking they will be 24 pct thatβs actually picking a team into 32 pct own. Or more if Dallas is higher owned.
SuperContest Survivor went very heavy on Dallas this week @SuperBookNV
A player with 87 entries still alive in the World Championship put them all on the Cowboys tonight.
Dallas TNF pick numbers for the four big @splashsports Survivor Contests
World Championship: 37.8%
Big Splash: 41.9%
Wave: 42.1%
Ripple: 40.0%
Dallas TNF pick numbers for the four big @splashsports Survivor Contests
World Championship: 37.8%
Big Splash: 41.9%
Wave: 42.1%
Ripple: 40.0%
Here are Week 5's biggest line moves from last week's market lookahead lines to the current market lines.
4+ points:
π ATL: +6 to -3 (vs BAL)
π CHI: +2.5 to -3 (at GB)
π JAX: -2.5 to -7 (vs PHI)
1-2 points:
π CIN: -9 to -7 (at MIA)
π DEN: -1.5 to -3.5 (at LAC)
π DAL: -9.5 to -8 (vs TB)
π PIT: -1.5 to -2.5 (vs IND)
π MIN: -2.5 to -1.5 (at NO)
π WSH: -2.5 to -3.5 (vs NYG)
π DET: -5.5 to -4.5 (at ARI)
<1 point:
π NYJ: -2.5 to -2 (vs CLE)
π HOU: -6.5 to -7 (at TEN)
π SEA: -3.5 to -3 (vs SF)
π LAR: -2.5 to -3 (vs BUF)
No Change:
NE: -3.5 to -3.5 (vs LV)
A surprising 49 NO PICKS in the Splash World Championship in Week 4!
Here is the pick breakdown across their 4 large contests
All eyes on Minnesota and Baltimore tomorrow xitter.cf/PoolCrunch/status/2106β¦
Replying to @CircaSports
Vikings and Ravens with over 80% of picks as expected.
Solid EV for Seattle and Buffalo.
63 players have all 10 entries alive. 27 of them (42.9%) went all-in on one team this week:
MIN 14, SEA 6, BAL 5, CHI 1, IND 1
KC-SEA was the top combo picked in the @splashsports Big Splash contest in the first week of double picks.
Here's all the combos picked by more than 200 entries, along with the Expected Values of each
Here is how those with the most entries left in @splashsports World Championship distributed their picks in Week 3
How the pick distributions and No Picks differed between the four big @splashsports Survivor Contests in Week 3
Chiefs come in over 50% and just slightly negative EV in @CircaSports Survivor.
128 players have all 10 entries alive. 72 of them (56.3%) went all-in on one team this week:
KC 36, DET 9, GB 9, SEA 7, BUF 6, SF 4, NO 1
Packers pick percentages for Thursday night across the big four Splash survivor pools:
World Championship: 8.0%
Big Splash: 17.0% (double picks)
Ripple: 15.4% (double picks)
Wave: 18.8% (double picks)
I would expect Circa to come in around 6-8%.














