@PolyBridgeHQ
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Causal world models for economics and geopolitics
Pareto Frontier
Joined November 2025
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Prediction markets hit ~$50 billion in total notional volume in 2025. 90%+ from @Polymarket and @Kalshi.
$50 billion is several orders of magnitude below options, equities, or FX
This thread asks how big will prediction markets get, and what closes the gap:
Oil is flowing through Hormuz again, but diesel is still scarce.
Costlier diesel makes deliveries more expensive and can push up what you pay for goods.
Will US inflation stay above 3%?
PolyBridge sees a 33.5% chance it does every month from November ’26 to March ’27.
nitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…
Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply rebounded:
Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28th.
This marks an over +210% increase from the ~4.5 million barrels per day low seen in March.
As a result, the 4-week average is up to 14 million barrels per day, the highest level in 6 months.
Persian Gulf crude oil exports have now recovered to ~80% of their pre-war levels.
This comes as the US military has increasingly secured the Strait of Hormuz and established a two-way shipping corridor along the coast of Oman, allowing oil convoys to resume through the waterway.
Meanwhile, refined fuel shipments, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, remain at only around 50% of pre-war levels, as these products are more expensive to transport than crude oil and some refineries in the Persian Gulf that were damaged during the early stages of the war have also yet to fully resume operations.
Oil flows are coming back, but the fuel market is still under intense pressure.
What would you ask about inflation, jobs or interest rates?
Explore your own questions in the PolyBridge US Macro Terminal.
Request access: console.polybridge.ai/login
PolyBridge retweeted
US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002 ft.trib.al/atc43S0
US manufacturing output fell 0.3% in August, ending seven straight months of gains.
PolyBridge sees a 44% chance industrial output is growing while payrolls are falling in the same month over the next six months.
The economy could keep producing more even as the jobs market weakens.
US retail sales rose 1.2% in August, beating expectations.
The Fed is expected to hike 25bp next.
Can consumers keep spending?
PolyBridge forecasts annual retail sales growth at 4.1% by March.
The Fed is expected to hike 25bp this week.
PolyBridge puts the chance of 3%+ inflation and 5%+ unemployment in the same month by March at ~41%.
The Fed risks weakening the jobs market before inflation is back under control.
Fed's table is set for a rate hike, a first under Warsh reut.rs/4AdXknL reut.rs/4AdXknL
US inflation held at 3.4% in August. Could 4% inflation be back by March?
PolyBridge sees a 32% chance headline CPI tops 4% at least once by March ’27.
Run your own US macro questions in PolyBridge Terminal.
Request access: console.polybridge.ai/login
Americans are getting worried about jobs.
New York Fed survey says households put the chance unemployment is higher in a year at 44%.
PolyBridge is more worried: 81% chance unemployment is above 4.1% in August ’27.
DM us for US Macro Room access.
nitter.cf/NewYorkFed/status/2097…
Our August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased slightly at the medium-term, but remained unchanged at the short- and longer-term horizons. Unemployment expectations reached the highest level since April 2020. nyfed.org/3Tlr8y6
Diesel prices just hit record highs.
US energy inflation is already 14.7%.
PolyBridge sees a 1 in 5 chance it tops 20% in Q1 ’27.
nitter.cf/Reuters/status/2096882…
Morning Bid: Diesel the real spoiler for US inflation doves reut.rs/3StyXSc reut.rs/3StyXSc
US added 162,000 jobs in August, after averaging just 31,000 a month over the prior year.
Can job growth stay this strong?
PolyBridge sees a 41% chance payroll gains stay above 100k in every month of Q1 ’27.
nitter.cf/FT/status/209585426577…
US economy smashes forecast with 162,000 jobs added in August ft.trib.al/J8RXWv7
Oil is above $90. US borrowing costs are at their highest since January 2025.
PolyBridge sees a 55% chance energy inflation is still above 10% in Q1 ’27.
The inflation pressure could linger well into next year.
nitter.cf/BBCWorld/status/209481…
US borrowing costs hit fresh highs over inflation fears bbc.in/4qNHLih
