Evidence-based election forecasting since 2004. Tweets and retweets by Andreas Graefe
Joined July 2011
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International Journal of Forecasting awards the PollyVote method with Outstanding paper award. Thanks! @ORMS_Elsevier @IIForecasters #IJF
🚨 FINAL PollyVote Forecast 🚨
Electoral Votes
Harris: 273
Trump: 265
(Harris win probability: 53% — essentially a coin flip)
Popular Vote (two-party)
Harris: 50.5%
Trump: 49.5%
(Harris win probability: 62% — still a toss-up!)
pollyvote.com/
PollyVote takes a unique approach by combining forecasts from different methods. Thereof, popular vote forecasts range from "likely Trump" to "very likely Harris." Electoral vote forecasts vary from "likely Trump" to "likely Harris." Easy to find a forecast that suit your bias.
But remember: combining forecasts, like PollyVote does, is one of the most effective ways to improve accuracy. More importantly, it helps you avoid large errors by trusting a forecast that might align with your bias but ends up showing poor accuracy.
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
The final round of the PollyVote expert survey (Nov 2-4) is in! Average forecasts of nine experts project Kamala Harris at 284 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 254, but Harris' chance of winning stands at just 55% - barely better than a coin toss.
pollyvote.com/pollyvote-elec…
For the House, predictions average 219 seats for Democrats and 216 for Republicans, giving Democrats a 54% chance of taking control.
Special thanks to @ProfBenjamin, John Coleman, George Edwards, Michael Martinez, @DavidRedlawsk, @LarrySabato, @MaryStegmaier, Michael Tesler, and Charles Walcott for their invaluable contributions to this election cycle's expert surveys!
The Issues and Leaders model uses data on issue-handling competence, and leadership perception, to predict the popular vote, currently forecasting a 50-50 split between Harris and Trump.
pollyvote.com/pollyvote-elec…
More voters say Harris would do a better job than Trump at handling abortion, health care, and climate change; Trump leads on immigration and inflation. On jobs and foreign policy, voters are closely divided.
(@YouGovAmerica)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/…
The big-issue model focuses solely on voter perceptions of which candidate can better handle the country’s top issue—this election, the economy. Currently, that model has Trump ahead by a roughly half a percentage point in the popular vote.
pollyvote.com/pollyvote-elec…
In comparison, Harris leads in our national polling average by 1.5 points.
pollyvote.com/pollyvote-elec…
PollyVote retweeted
**NOW ONLINE**
PS's Special Issue on #Forecasting the 2024 US #Elections is up & free to read!
Check it out:
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
#Election2024 #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #vote #forecast
**Image made w photos from Getty by Scott Olson, Justin Sullivan & Brendan Smialowski
Jacquart and @JohnAntonakis sent their forecast, which uses economic fundamentals and candidates' charisma to predict the election. The model, published in AMJ, predicts a Trump victory with 295 electoral votes vs 243 for Harris. @AOMConnect #Election2024
journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465…
PollyVote Pundit Poll results (Oct 15-17) are in! Not much change from last month's predictions, but races for President, Senate, & House remain tight. 🏛️ Average predictions from 7 political science professors show a close contest! #Election2024
pollyvote.com/pollyvote-elec…
Experts predict Harris to win the popular vote by 4.6 points over Trump, giving her an 82% chance of victory in the two-party vote! 🗳️ #Election2024
🏛️ Experts predict a 51-49 GOP edge in the Senate with a 63% chance of Republican control. In the House, they forecast 225 seats for Dems vs. 210 for GOP, giving Dems a 57% chance of taking control. #Election2024 #Senate #House
Decisions about which polls to include and how to weigh them can make a difference.
But the differences are usually small and it’s difficult to know ahead of time what will work best. Combine!
Check out our comparison of different poll averages at pollyvote.com
