@PolDiscuss
Account based inUnited States!
About this account
- Account based in
- United States
- Connected via
- Web
X says this location may be affected by a proxy or VPN.
Account-level information from X, not a live location or the device used for a specific post.
Donner une voix au discours politique critique. 🗣️
Chicago
Joined June 2023
- Tweets1.9K
- Following197
- Followers24
- Likes2.4K
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
The MOVE Index is going vertical because the Fed needs to raise rates by 100 basis points.
The orange line is the Fed funds rate. The blue line is the 2-year Treasury yield.
When the 2-year yield is above the Fed rate, the Fed needs to hike to bring inflation down. When the Fed rate is above the 2-year yield, the Fed needs to cut.
The white line shows the gap, and therefore how much the Fed needs to move rates.
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
The Oman Lane Flow Is Giving The Oil Market A False Sense Of Stability
hfir.com/p/the-oman-lane-flo…
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
🇫🇷TotalEnergies is betting on oil for another decade🛢️
Dividend up more than 5% a year to 2030.
Energy production +4% a year to 2030.
Oil and gas +3% a year, power generation +20% a year.
Capex range lifted to $ 14-17bn a year for 2027-2032, from $ 14-16bn.
The line that matters comes last…another 2-3% a year of oil and gas growth from 2030 to 2035, to reach and hold a 3M boe/d plateau.
That kind of growth eats resources. It needs exploration wins, and exploration never comes with a guarantee.
It also shows where Total thinks oil demand and prices will be in the mid-2030s.
For now, the weight sits clearly on oil and gas.
$TTE
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
Go beyond the basics. Get hands-on. Rainer Krause of EagleBurgmann Academy leads “Mechanical Seals: Fundamentals, Design Concepts and Selection Criteria” at #PVIC2026.
Explore sealing technology, design concepts, and material considerations: pviconference.com
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
Following two weeks of buying totalling 213k contracts, or roughly USD 17 billion, which flipped the yen position from net short to a 120k net long, sellers returned last week, cutting 48k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.9 billion.
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
FX COT: Dollar bulls return
A sharp rise in US Treasury yields and renewed Fed tightening expectations triggered a major reversal in speculative FX positioning in the week to 22 September.
After seven weeks of cutting a record USD 50bn dollar long to just USD 5.9bn, speculators rebuilt the position to USD 18.4bn. Dollar buying was broad-based, led by selling of JPY (-USD 3.9bn), EUR (-USD 3.6bn) and GBP (-USD 2bn), while NZD saw its biggest weekly sale since 2018.
More in my Monday update.
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
Sixth U.S. bank failure of 2026
That’s three times as many as 2024 or 2025
@AmerBanker reports FDIC estimates a $114 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund - and is keeping about $260 million of Nano Banc’s leftover assets to sell later.
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
🇺🇸 Wall St #WeekAhead Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength - Reuters
reuters.com/business/wall-st…
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
Saudi crude oil shipments are set to rise to the highest level during the Iran war - Bloomberg
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
TD3C AG/China and TD20 WAF/UKC FFA curves. "For the moment" we said, as the FFA market has reversed much of the Tuesday plunge, and the curves are just under Friday's levels. Interesting contango in TD20 though, since spot has been stuck in a 5% range for 10 days.
#tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TEN $TNK
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
🚢 FSO vs FPSO
Despite their similar offshore appearance, their responsibilities are quite distinct.
FSO = a tank that floats
FPSO = a processing plant that floats, with the tank built in
You'll find both in the same places... deep water, remote fields, or anywhere a pipeline to shore would cost more than the field is worth.
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
Strongly in backwardation
Brent crude 1-6 months timespread in USD/bbl #OOTT
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
#China's gasoline and diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in more than a decade as exports surge and domestic demand recovers seasonally, according to GL Consulting.
Low stock levels appear to have raised Beijing's concerns, increasing the prospect of tighter export controls in October, according to Rystad Energy. GL Consulting said it expects exports to fall in October as state refiners prioritise domestic energy security. #oott reuters.com/business/energy/…
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
🇺🇲 US Business Activity Expands at the Fastest Pace Since 2021 - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
obviously attn is on the rates move as its a large one today... but look at the dollar as well
$UUP US Dollar taking out July highs
and Crude doesn't seem to be cause today as Crude is only ~ +1%
Investing Quote of the Day: "Diversification looks inefficient during a bull market but is a source of strength during bear markets." - Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact)
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
U.S. DIESEL inventories have remained low but broadly stable since the start of August. Stocks were just 107 million barrels on September 18, down from 123 million barrels on the same date last year, and the lowest for the time of year in records dating back to 1982. Stocks are about 29 million barrels (-21% or -1.56 standard deviations) below the ten-year seasonal average. But the deficit has not been basically stable for more than a month and arguably since the end of May as refineries have boosted their crude processing to the highest rate since before the pandemic:
ChrisJ Debates retweeted
China Merchants Energy Shipping has fixed a $36.1M voyage with Vitol as VLCC spot rates hit fresh records.