Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. SpaceX $SPCX reported a massive Q3 2026, with revenue surging 161% YoY to $14.6B, while EPS reached $0.35 and net income totaled $4.4B. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 306% YoY to $8.8B, with operating cash flow of $13.1B and capital expenditures of $19.6B, highlighting the scale of the company's infrastructure investments. By segment, Space revenue grew 6% to $1.8B, Connectivity revenue increased 69% to $5.2B, and Space Intelligence (SI) revenue skyrocketed 830% to $7.6B, becoming the company's largest revenue contributor. Elon Musk also outlined aggressive expansion plans for AI compute, saying SpaceX could potentially have 20 GW of SI capacity online by the end of 2027, although he acknowledged that outcome is unlikely. Musk added that he would be surprised if SpaceX deployed less than 13 GW of compute capacity by the end of next year, underscoring the company's ambitions in large-scale AI infrastructure.
2. Anthropic’s draft IPO prospectus reportedly reveals explosive growth alongside unprecedented AI infrastructure commitments, with H1 2026 revenue surging nearly 15x YoY to $16.3B, up from $1.1B, while computing expenses climbed to nearly $9B. The company recorded an $80.7B net loss, although approximately $72B came from accounting adjustments tied to convertible notes and other financing instruments rather than direct operating expenses. Anthropic has reportedly committed roughly $450B to long-term cloud contracts, plus more than $160B for Google-designed AI chips through Broadcom $AVGO, with additional negotiations potentially pushing total computing commitments toward $750B. Major suppliers include Google $GOOGL ($111B), Amazon $AMZN ($110B), Microsoft $MSFT ($31B), and Nscale and Lambda (up to $86B), while the prospectus also highlights risks around customer concentration, power availability, infrastructure execution, and AI-related liability. Anthropic is reportedly preparing for a potential IPO at a valuation approaching $2T, underscoring the extraordinary scale of both the revenue opportunity and capital requirements facing frontier AI developers.
3. Supermicro $SMCI significantly raised its preliminary Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance to $18.5B–$19.5B, up from its previous outlook of $14.5B–$15.5B, representing a 27% increase at the midpoint. The company attributed the stronger outlook to accelerating demand for AI infrastructure platforms, reflecting continued investment in next-generation data center systems. Supermicro also raised its expected gross margin to 12.0%–12.5%, up from 10.4%–10.8%, citing a more favorable customer and product mix. The combination of sharply higher revenue expectations and improving margins suggests stronger operating leverage as demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to expand.
4. Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that investors are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble, raising concerns about the enormous amounts of capital being deployed into artificial intelligence without corresponding evidence of widespread productivity gains. Griffin pointed to the scale of AI infrastructure commitments, with Anthropic reportedly considering as much as $750B in future computing expenditures, as investors increasingly question whether AI companies can generate sufficient returns to justify their spending. Despite his concerns about elevated valuations, aggressive capital expenditures, and speculative enthusiasm, Griffin remains bullish on AI’s long-term transformative potential, distinguishing between the technology’s eventual economic impact and the possibility that investors are paying too much for that growth today.
5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.0M contracts, $SPCX with 992K contracts, $NFLX with 876K contracts, $MU with 850K contracts, $TSLA with 843K contracts, $AMZN with 824K contracts, $CRWV with 785K contracts, $INTC with 621K contracts, and $AMD with 480K contracts.
6. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said U.S.–Iran negotiations remain ongoing through mediators including Pakistan and Qatar, but accused Washington of complicating diplomatic progress by introducing new conditions to a previously proposed seven-day agreement. According to Araghchi, the U.S. initially accepted Iran’s terms before seeking additional clauses, while Tehran’s proposal called for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen on day six of the arrangement. Araghchi emphasized that Iran remains open to negotiations if Washington honors previously discussed understandings, despite what he described as deep distrust between the two countries. He declined to publicly detail the additional U.S. demands, leaving the outcome of the negotiations uncertain as both sides continue working through intermediaries.
7. U.S. pending home sales plunged 7.3% in September, falling to their lowest level on record in data going back to 2001. The decline was particularly severe in the West, where pending sales dropped 9.2%, while the South, the nation's largest home-selling region, recorded an 8.2% contraction. The sharp deterioration highlights the continued paralysis in the U.S. housing market, as elevated mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and economic uncertainty weigh on homebuyer demand.
8. Amazon $AMZN announced plans to invest more than €16B ($18B) in Germany during 2027, expanding its AI infrastructure, AWS cloud operations, logistics network, and robotics capabilities. The investment includes €4.8B for AWS, supporting expansion of its Frankfurt cloud region, alongside a second AI and robotics research lab in Berlin. Amazon also plans to expand its Leo satellite broadband network through 24 Arianespace launches, while new logistics projects are expected to create more than 3,000 jobs. The commitment brings Amazon's cumulative investment in Germany to more than €100B since 2010, reinforcing the country's importance as a European hub for AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and advanced logistics.
9. Meta $META has completed the first phase of its gigawatt-scale Prometheus AI supercluster in Ohio, connecting hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA $NVDA GPUs across multiple buildings into a single massive AI training system, with plans to eventually scale to 1 million GPUs. The infrastructure combines NVIDIA GB200 and GB300 NVL72 platforms and was used to train Meta's latest Muse Wonder AI models. Meta said extensive engineering work with NVIDIA on hardware reliability, networking, and firmware has reduced training interruptions by 99% from their peak, enabling more than 85% productive training time during pretraining and over 90% during reinforcement learning. The company plans to expand Prometheus further using NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin systems, highlighting the enormous infrastructure requirements behind the development of frontier AI models.
10. Netflix $NFLX reported Q3 2026 revenue of $12.87B, in line with expectations and up 12% YoY, while EPS of $0.87 beat the $0.82 estimate, rising 49% YoY. Operating income surged 37% to $4.46B, exceeding expectations, with operating margins expanding 640 basis points to 34.6%, reflecting strong profitability despite moderating revenue growth. However, the biggest disappointment came from guidance, with Netflix lowering its FY2026 free cash flow outlook to $12B from $12.5B and reducing its advertising revenue forecast to approximately $2.7B from $3B, while guiding Q4 revenue of $13.44B and EPS of $0.67, both below consensus. Regional growth remained positive, led by Latin America (+17%), while UCAN and EMEA each grew 11% and APAC increased 12%. Netflix also generated $2.88B in quarterly free cash flow, repurchased $4.8B in shares, and announced plans to expand its advertising tier into 15 additional countries in 2027, highlighting continued investment in monetization despite a softer near-term outlook.
11. Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner believes AI stocks could resume outperforming after the U.S. midterm elections, as institutional investors wait for political uncertainty to clear before increasing exposure, according to Bloomberg. Rubner said clients remain interested in the AI trade but are reluctant to deploy additional capital ahead of a major political event, with some telling him they are “happy to buy higher, but not buy now into a major political event.” The comments suggest that some investors are delaying purchases rather than abandoning their bullish outlook on AI, potentially creating renewed demand for technology stocks once the elections are over.
12. Amazon $AMZN is reportedly accelerating purchases of NVIDIA $NVDA AI server racks, but power shortages and data center deployment delays are leaving some expensive equipment idle before it can generate revenue. Internal AWS projections reportedly showed approximately $5B in GB300 rack deliveries in August, followed by roughly $3B per month, although these figures represent projected deliveries rather than confirmed idle inventory. Amazon has also introduced an Early Rack Receipt program that allows AWS to take ownership and pay for AI hardware before it reaches data centers, securing scarce GPU supply but accelerating cash outflows. The challenges come as Amazon expects approximately $220B in capital expenditures during 2026, with free cash flow turning negative last quarter for the first time since 2023. Amazon maintains that staging equipment near data centers is standard practice and disputes claims of broader deployment-planning problems, highlighting the growing tension between rapid AI infrastructure investment and the power capacity needed to monetize it.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
Found a source for daily individual company CDS quotes:
lseg.com/en/post-trade/clear…
Scroll down to single names.
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
One definition of a bear market is a drawdown that logs an 18-month low. Through this lens, the advance since September 2022 is no longer youthful, as just 3 of 18 cases since 1950 ran further. Today’s up-leg can persist, but risk management is increasingly important.
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
When I was in sixth grade, our science class did an egg drop project.
The assignment was to build something that could protect an egg when it was dropped from ceiling height.
I was really excited and spent full weekends trying to come up with the perfect design.
I think I ended up cutting open a Nerf football, making a little space for the egg, and putting that inside a box stuffed with paper. I was convinced it would work.
Then the contest started.
My egg was dropped and broke completely.
As the day went on and the other kids had their turns, I realized I was the only kid in the class whose egg broke.
The other kids had come up with these brilliant designs, and I vividly remember being shocked when one girl had her egg suspended inside a box using pantyhose. How did she think of that? How did I not?
I remember feeling devastated, as I’d put so much time and effort into this thing, and I was the only kid who failed. And I got a C on the project.
I couldn’t understand how the other kids had come up with such great ideas when mine didn’t work at all.
I carried that memory with me for years and remembered it as a story about putting your heart into something and then coming in dead last.
Only years later did I look back and realize that I was the only kid whose parents didn't do the project for them.
I was a 12-year-old competing with adults, had no idea it wasn't an even playing field, and there were consequences.
It had a big impact on me at that impressionable age.
There are a lot of life lessons in that egg drop project.
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
1/ Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong."
Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market)...
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
To my Florida Peeps:
Jose Javier Rodriguez is the Democratic candidate for Attorney-General.
I have met him. He is ethical and intelligent – and has stood up against the powerful special interests that dominate Florida politics.
His opponent, the current DeSantis-appointed Attorney General, rammed Allegator Alcatraz down our environmental throats. He also facilitated the $10 million transfer from a Medicare settlement fund to a foundation aligned with Casey DeSantis.
I would really, really like to see an ethical Attorney General in Tallahassee again. Which is why I’m voting for Jose Javier Rodriguez.
I hope you will join me.
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
Daily thrills cause mainly spills. Prefer by far the weekly bar. –Max Adage
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
Three more comments about 1962 before I put the chart back into the archives:
1) The June 1962 secondary low was 7% below the May Crash low. It was unbelievably traumatic watching the market desperately try to find support.
2) We were as close to nuclear war in October 1962 as we've ever been -- but the market never broke its June low. A 2 1/2 year rally followed.
3) The October bottom was a classic diamond reversal, which is why diamond formations will stay with me as long as I live.
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
The divergence between tech and everything else is simply staggering. Weekend Edition 10.02.26
youtu.be/-n9QlGlzZsc
Bitcoin wesleyave retweeted
Wonder why I’ve been fixated on the Big Breadth Divergence lately?
I first started following the stock market in 1961. Right afterwards, in May 1962, it crashed.
Most web references call it the “Kennedy Slide” or “Flash Crash”. It wasn’t.
it was a full-fledged crash.
The market staged a series of increasingly-violent selling climaxes every two weeks. The Big One came on Monday, May 28. The S&P 500 plummeted 6.8%, which left it more than 20% below its March high. The tape was still printing trades 2½ hours after the market closed.
It was an indescribably-powerful emotional experience. Nothing on the web adequately captures it. The closest thing is jasonzweig.com/back-to-the-f…
And the crash was foreshadowed by a Big Breadth Divergence.
I simply can’t forget lessons like that from just after I started following the stock market.
Which is why that Big Breadth Divergence will stay with me as long as I live.
Wall Street is penalizing $GOOG because its AI strategy is built by a corporate bureaucracy, not a founder.
You can't spend $200B on data centers while ignoring the fact that everyday people flat-out distrust invasive ecosystem tracking. Meta's Muse is agile and independent.
.@sundarpichai Alphabet's biggest AI risk isn't compute scale; it's a massive trust deficit.
Forcing users into a walled garden (Gmail/Maps/Docs) to use Gemini is actively alienating everyday consumers who demand data boundaries. Meta’s Muse proved platform independence wins.
Alphabet is pouring $200B into AI CapEx while completely missing the biggest market blind spot: CONSUMER TRUST.
Everyday users aren't downloading invasive tech that forces an entire ecosystem lock-in. Meta's Muse wins on platform independence because it respects
























