Winning the economic war of attrition doesn't have to yield results on the battlefield to be effective. If we agree that the war ends at the negotiation table, it's economic leverage you want most. China and China alone has kept the Russian economy afloat but its support is steadily declining as seen in the Ruble/Yuan exchange rate. This graph is the financial equivalent of a steady withdrawal on the battlefield:
Yuan/Ruble tells you everything you need to know about the economic fate of Russia and of the BRICs common currency.
Prediction markets are driven by whales who use big data models to determine odds. They are only interested in making money. They are also participating in and arbitraging differences across betting markets (not just prediction markets). Hence the odds being close across markets. If there was objective data to indicate the odds of any market were mispriced, the whales would jump on it.
Without disagreeing with you, odds are normalizing across markets including traditional betting markets. So there seems to be enough liquidity on Polymarket to align with the broader consensus.
This is the US gov't income statement. Tax revenues at the top and interest expense at the bottom. Just curious: from where did you think the US or any gov't got the money to service its debts?
