Great interview yesterday with $CIFR leadership team. They are taking the time to speak directly to retail investors at the same time they are having multiple in depth institutional and analyst discussions. Pretty rare!
I was already bullish on CIFR, but great listen for anyone who has their confidence shaken with recent macro / price movements
26
984
$IREN $NBIS
From the NBIS quarterly report, they are trying to move away from ARR into revenues and profitability. This would be what happens when the industry is at a more mature state, but it’s not. It’s growing rapidly. I also didn’t understand their point about ARR being “one month”. I could only guess this is related to their asset-lite sources of revenue showing up only 1x (not annual recurring revenue)
My guess is this is their attempt to distract the market because ARR forecasts better track delays and can be a useful investment benchmark for valuing competitors like IREN, who will have some pretty fantastic ARRs in 2027, but the full year revenues won’t materialize till over the next 4 quarters after ARR is recognized. Investors will recognize eventually that the NBIS-to-IREN ratio (currently at 6x) will need a major adjustment soon, since ARR is still the right metric for this industry no matter what NBIS tries to tell us.
assets.nebius.com/assets/51f…
(From the NBIS shareholder letter)
We no longer see ARR as the right measure of our business. As our business scales, this metric does not reflect the full scope of our base:
It is based on one month of the quarter, while we do not build our business around any one month;
As we scale new partnerships, this revenue can add choppiness to
ARR until such revenue ramps; and We are also shifting to the next phase, where our business is based on revenue and profitability.
As we are growing and getting mature, we believe revenues and pre-tax earnings are the most appropriate way of evaluating us.
8
804
$IREN
Just listened to the quarterly earnings call, nicely done by Dan and team!
One key narrative I hope will stick: Full control of asset development is $IREN's biggest competitive moat.
This gives IREN significant optionally and control that others can’t match
A few examples:
1) they clarified that their acceptance of Microsoft driven delays was actually a positive differentiator. Other Neoclouds who rely on colocation would not be able to accommodate late changes because they would have to renegotiate any design changes that late in the build. I feel as though providing potential leading AI clients this extra level of protection to accommodate design changes will be appealing in such a fast moving industry. One more reason to chose IREN for the client not to get painted into a corner signing contract designs months or years out with no margin for error as the industry evolves.
2) they are able to scale back the capex while financing is tightening up, but keep the same guidance on their 2027 power delivered because part of that 2027 capex spend was focused on development of new sites outside of their 2027 pipeline. This means they have the ability to speed up or slow down the pace of their overall portfolio development ON THEIR TIMELINES. Mainly, as the market fits their needs, not the other way around. On this way they would less likely get ahead of their skis and be in a tough position financially (see CRWV)
3) their example of building both the shell and installing the GPUs in 14 months when typical buildout of the shell alone is 18 months. This is a core advantage for leading edge DC development, and their time to compute will only just accelerate!
It’s been a tough go the last 1-3 months, but this seems like the clarity we needed to enter a whole new phase for $IREN
$IREN 35 GWs 🤯
However, before you get too excited after doing the math on a potential 35 GW * the current ~$20M per MW per year calculation (which comes out to $700B in ARR, which is a $ x.xT Enterprise Value for a company currently worth $10B-$14B EV), just consider that there is a difference between enterprise value and market cap and stock price.
Market Capitalization = Enterprise Value minus Net Debt (also minus preferred stock and minority interest)
Stock price = Market Capitalization / total shares outstanding
The 3 key levers (outside of demand) for me would be:
- speed / velocity of build out
- net debt added each year
- incremental ATM stock dilution needed each year
At some point, IREN will reach “escape velocity”, where their future developments will no longer need new net debt or dillution, and then they are a money making machine!
Therefore, I think it would be smart for $IREN to highlight both:
1) how they can accelerate the build out over time, either with additional geographies being added (EU, AUS, SE Asia) and by accelerating the velocity of building with AI factor templates, Nvidia DSX, etc
2) clarity in when they expect to hit “escape velocity” assuming current conditions, which is essentially when they no longer need to take debt or hit the ATM to fund the subsequent years’ DC shell build out.
$IREN Dispelling this most recent @theinformation + @SemiAnalysis_ FUD.
Just do a quick LLM check and you’ll see that the payments are just moving to the next quarter, and full year CAPEX is getting recategorized to OPEX by the CFO. I agree that semianalysis must have ulterior motives and/or a vendetta against IREN, since his post are extremely misleading. He no longer has any credibility left in my view:
(LLM response)
The Push-Out: CFO Amy Hood confirmed this is entirely a matter of timing. The money wasn't canceled; the spending has simply pushed out to the next quarters. Microsoft expects its CapEx to sharply accelerate again as that capacity finally comes online.
2. The Accounting Shift: Moving CapEx to OpEx
The other reason Microsoft lowered its full-year CapEx forecast (cutting its 2026 outlook from $190 billion down to $170 billion) is a structural accounting change.
•The Rule: Under standard accounting (US GAAP), if a company leases a building for a huge chunk of that building's expected lifespan, it must be classified as a Finance Lease and reported as CapEx.
•The Change: Microsoft officially extended the estimated "useful life" of its data centers from 15 years to 25 years.
•The Result: Because the buildings are now mathematically expected to last longer, the 5-year lease deals Microsoft signs with providers like IREN no longer cover a "major part" of the building's total life. Consequently, these agreements are reclassified from Finance Leases (CapEx) to Operating Leases (OpEx).
Summary
When you see headlines saying Microsoft "cut" or "lowered" CapEx, it means:
1Physical construction delays pushed billions in planned spending into future quarters.
2Paperwork reclassification shifted billions from the CapEx bucket straight into the OpEx bucket, even though the total cash flowing to data centers remains unchanged.
BREAKING NEWS🚨: According to @theinformation, Microsoft's $5B less in capex in Q3 than it had planned was in part due to delays by $IREN.
We would not be surprised by this, considering that IREN continues to come up in our conversations with neocloud customers, usually for the wrong reasons. Multi-day power outages, network upgrades, storage failures, air quality controls leading to link flaps, XIDs everywhere. The #1 worst site in the industry, according to users.
Update: I’m down about -50% on these $IREN options, dated Feb ‘27, Jun ‘27, Jan ‘28. (Options are only a very small amount of my investments, mostly to take advantage of extreme price swings since I am already properly allocated into common shares)
I have been DCA’ing mostly on my Jun ‘27 and Jan ‘28 calls as the price continues to go lower. I don’t believe I am a “loser averaging losers”, I just feel as though the current macro noise and negative catalysts will be a distant memory in 2027 when investor focus will be about $IREN $ XXB in 2027 ARR and remaining healthy secured power backlog
I just wanted to provide full transparency on how it’s been in the casino. I’m not done yet - I’m not selling, and willing to ride these down to zero. However, let’s check back on how they are doing in a few months!
Be greedy when others are fearful!
I now have a healthy amount of $IREN calls (OTM calls spread across Feb ‘27, Jun ‘27, and Jan ‘28).
I haven’t been this loaded up on calls since 2025! Take the gifts 🎁 you are given
1
12
1,140
Best post I have seen on the Florida Learjet 60 crash
Long post worth the read. I have a close friend who flies private jets. He flew Lear 60 for over 15 years and now flies a Gulfstream. This is a copy and paste of his response to me asking him if I thought Ice was the issue.
“We always fly in ridiculous cold temperatures.”
“Usually you get the bad ice when the temperatures are like 0 to negative 20. Believe it or not, there's a point where it gets too cold for ice. At negative 40, you pretty much can't get ice. Besides that, the airplane is equipped with hot wings and hot tail.”
“I flew the Lear 60 for like 15 years. It's a no joke airplane and probably the most dangerous airplane I've ever flown. It has a super critical wing. The airflow has to be perfect. When it gets into rough air and turbulence, it will easily stall. It has stalled on me at 41,000 feet just because we got into some turbulence. (On the way to Palm Beach as a matter of fact. ) we recovered and got her flying again around 30,000 ft. Scary
But here's the problem. This airplane has a terrible coffin corner. (At high altitudes) what that means is, you fly in a really narrow window where if you lose 20 knots, it stalls. And if you gain 20 knots, it goes into overspeed. The air goes supersonic over the wing and it goes into a high speed stall, or worse, a Mach tuck.
So if you stall, the normal recovery is to push the yoke forward to lower the nose and gain air speed again. At low altitude, you can push really hard and recover quickly. But in the 60... if you push hard, it will gain air speed and go into a high speed stall, it doesn't take much. It's very sensitive. The 60 has super short wings that don't make much lift. So then you high speed stall, and the computer is yelling at you... OVERSPEED! So then you pull back and enter a low speed stall. And you go back and forth trying to keep it in the air speed window.
This whole thing is pretty scary. And you should recover basically by using your finger tips using super small corrections. You can't over do it. If you try to muscle the recovery, she gets mad and will become unrecoverable. If she enters a mach tuck. You're done.”
“I taught the Lear 60 to other pilots and mentored them. I told them... this airplane has a soul and it's trying to kill you. Do not ever try to top the weather. Don't go over a thunderstorm. Go around it. If it means a half hour longer, then do it. Going over the thunderstorm will go into turbulence that you might not recover from.
These pilots went right over a thunderstorm. I think it stalled which caused them to drop down into the thunderstorm and ended up in mach tuck. They picked up so much speed that it ripped off the horizontal stabilizer. At that point... chuck Yeager can't fix it.
These same pilots did something similar a couple months ago. ATC got mad at them. They poked the bear one too many times.
This is not a beginner airplane. The Gulfstream would never do this. It has HUGE margins of error and won't stall like that. But then again... it's got HUGE wings. It's a pussy cat.
The Gulfstream is like driving a 4 wheeler. The Lear 60 is like riding a uni cycle.”
2
3
692
Buy low sell high seems easy until you are actually in market. This is what happens with a ‘typical’ retail investor and why it’s hard to implement these words of wisdom right now when we are clearly in a near bottom on AI DCs:
A) when stocks are falling, you believe the bleeding will never stop, so you hold off on buying because you “don’t want to catch a falling knife”
B) when stocks start to turn you aren’t sure if this is a “dead cat bounce” so you still hold off buying
C) when the stock really starts to run up, you wait till “the next dip”
D) when the dip finally comes, your mindset immediately goes back to either A or B above and either don’t buy or panic sell
E) eventually after the stock has already made a major run up, there is enough FOMO that you start to buy the stock. Typically this is when there is already consensus on the stock
F) once exuberance finally hits, you are feeling good about recent gains on the stock and you “ride your winners”, but unexpectedly it starts to turn on you when your conviction is highest.
G) you panic sell once the stock is maybe at / near your average, leaving you with little gains or even a loss.
Rinse and repeat…forever
Don’t over think it!!
**Buy these stocks now, hold for 1-2 years, make money.**
That simple!
One year from now, it will be hard to remember all the fear and FUD that currently is in the market.
Great, now that Elon is talking about neoclouds, we really are getting a new wave of chart squigglers and kid analysts coming in thinking they know and understand the space after researching it for an hour and drawing squiggles on a chart.
We might still go down on $IREN and others, but they won’t be my shares that they are buying. I will keep stacking options if the price further declines and ignore the Elon smear campaign that is in his own interest.
Those of us who have been here for a while know what we own. Hold strong!
Seems like every major run up is preceded by an extreme dip down, and followed by a sharp reversal. I’ve seen it in crypto, BTC miners, and now with AI DCs.
Makes sense because all the weak lettuce hands get shaken out.
I think we are witnessing that extreme dip and reversal right now.
Hope you didn’t give up right before Valhalla
2
15
803
You don’t have to hit the absolute bottom, just get in what feels like “close enough” (I think we’re there now $CIFR $IREN
Shifted funds around to take advantage of this downturn in AI DCs - they have been doing this for years, and they always bounce back.
Any excuse will do for a sharp turnaround very soon (mid terms elections complete, etc)
If the market keeps going down due to 10 yr interest rate yields going ballistic, just be sure to hold enough $BTC and $ETH for to inevitable YCC coming
1
8
1,475
phads retweeted
Today I will be educating you with some construction progress at $IREN sites in Texas.
Additionally, I will try to explain why the current strategy is the optimal one, and attempt to clarify some misunderstandings around the company and its trajectory.
