SpaceX: Mega IPO Facebook holds the IPO record with an $81B market cap. 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗫 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗴𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟬× 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝘇𝗲. IPOs at this scale are nearly a new asset class. And history hasn’t always been kind to large launches: ✅ 36 US companies have gone public at $15B+ market caps ✅ Only 9 beat the S&P 500 from their first-day closing price ✅ Just 17 generated any positive return at all Since 1980, companies with at least $100 million in revenue trading at 40× revenue or more saw an average 3-year decline of 45%. 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗫'𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 $𝟭.𝟴𝗧 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝘁 𝟵𝟯× 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲. What they have accomplished is extraordinary – reusable rockets, dominant orbital launch economics, a satellite internet business that covers the globe – it’s fascinating. As for the future, Musk promises "orbital AI" when data center developers are desperate for power and land. And for more than 20 years it’s been out of reach for most investors. Is it the perfect recipe for FOMO buying? 𝘚𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘴: 𝘞𝘚𝘑 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘉𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘯'𝘴 #spacex #investing #finance

The SpaceX IPO: At $1.75 trillion and ~90x revenue. #spacex #investing #stockmarket #finance

I see tremendous value in communicating financial goals across an organization. Alignment requires translating them out of finance language and into clear, actionable terms. If financial goals are not understood, strategy is not aligned. Few concepts matter more than the balance sheet. To explain it, I use a simple 2x2 matrix built around two variables (𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘰): ✅ 𝗔𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: The financial capacity to take risk, defined by the company’s financial health. ✅ 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀: Cultural posture toward risk and the willingness to withstand loss. When both are low, there is only one rational operating mode: 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗩𝗘. This is survival mode. I think of it as playing scared defense, because you don’t have the ability to absorb loss. One lawsuit. One recall. One downturn. And the company is potentially in jeopardy. 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆. 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁. If willingness is high but ability is low, the outcome becomes 𝗗𝗔𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗥𝗢𝗨𝗦. You want to swing big. But the balance sheet still cannot absorb a miss. One large, failed investment can become an existential problem. 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝘁𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗸𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀. As ability grows, the menu expands. Now you can choose to be 𝗗𝗘𝗙𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘. Operate conservatively even though you have strength. Navigate volatility calmly. Wait patiently. 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲. Or you can 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗜𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗜𝗭𝗘. Act on investment opportunities. Deploy capital when competitors pull back. Invest when valuations compress. Accelerate when others are repairing damage. Eventually something goes wrong for everyone. If your balance sheet can withstand it, that is the best time to play offense. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗴𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁. Companies grow the fastest when their competitors cannot. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗮 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀.

"The most important decisions that businesspeople make are not WHAT decisions, but WHO decisions." -Good to Great by Jim Collins

Should You Buy or Build a Business? #entrepreneur #investing #privateequity youtube.com/watch?v=l6hYuljy…

How do you identify fantastic leadership? Look for extraordinary results where no individual steps forth to claim excess credit. -Good to Great

“Vanguard has taken in an average of $1 billion every day for the last 10 years. For most asset managers or advisors, $500 million in new money would be a good year. Vanguard sees that much come in by lunchtime.” -The Bogle Effect by Eric Balchunas

Buying a Business: Your Minimum Due Diligence Checklist #privateequity hubs.li/Q02TYB940

What is the future of financial modeling in an AI-powered world? #AI #Excel #finance youtu.be/525KTWCbaqY

Why Are Dividend Recaps Increasing? Private equity firms are struggling to sell portfolio companies. But they need to return capital to keep investors happy. #privateequity

Private Equity Balance Sheets and Interest Rates Lincoln International: “With average fixed charge coverage ratios hovering close to 1.0x, there is little room for error." Below a value of 1.0x, the ratio suggests that the company is eating its balance sheet to service debt.

ASM Newsletter! Modeling a Crisis and Private Equity Pace mailchi.mp/asimplemodel/day-…

"Victory awaits him who has everything in order - luck, people call it." -Roald Amundsen in 1912 (after he became the first explorer to reach the South Pole)

ASM Newsletter! Building Expertise 😎 mailchi.mp/asimplemodel/buil… #finance #investing #privateequity #financialstatements

“Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough.” @morganhousel

ASM Newsletter! Negotiating Equity w/o #PrivateEquity Experience mailchi.mp/asimplemodel/nego…

In light of recent WeWork bankruptcy concerns, I had to bring back one of my favorite examples of (Community) Adjusted #EBITDA. The #WeWork S1 wordcount for "community" reached 150. An odd attempt at persuasion. youtu.be/2xBCLTn51ro

FT: In the US, the [default rate on risker debt] has climbed to 4.9 per cent, with casualties this year including car dealership Carvana, National CineMedia and infrastructure services group QualTek. Moody’s predicts the US default rate will peak at 5.4 per cent by January, but if conditions worsen it could soar as high as 14 per cent. ft.com/content/eca88341-4d17…