One may ask what rational or strategic interest Russia would have in launching an attack on Europe that could easily lead to an all-out NATO-Russia war, especially since Russia’s refusal so far to retaliate in kind to NATO-enabled Ukrainian attacks on its territory, including against civilians, has likely been motivated precisely by a desire to avoid such an outcome. Interestingly enough, such scepticism is shared even by some voices within the NATO establishment. Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, for example, wrote in its 2026 Annual Report, published in February: “There is... no cause for panic. In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year. We are likely to reach a similar assessment next year”. Even Finnish President Alexander Stubb, otherwise very hawkish on Russia, has pushed back against warnings from fellow European leaders that Russia could attack NATO in the near future, saying Helsinki’s intelligence sees no evidence of an imminent military threat. “We don’t see the evidence of that”, Stubb said. “In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now”. Indeed, as reported by Politico, even NATO’s official assessment remains that there is no imminent threat: “At this time, we see no imminent threat of attack”, said a NATO official speaking on behalf of the organisation. On September 29, at a joint NATO press conference, Lithuanian PM Mindaugas Sinkevičius stated that he asked Mark Rutte for real intelligence evidence of Russia preparing an imminent attack, receiving confirmation that none exists. “I asked [Rutte] is there proof, real proof, that Russia is planning something? But there is actually nothing”, he said. This shows that even NATO’s own assessments are highly contradictory. In terms of public sentiment, however, it makes little difference, since the imminent-attack claims far outweigh the more cautious assessments, which generally receive hardly any coverage. In any case, in the absence of evidence pointing in one direction or the other, speculations about future scenarios ultimately remain just that: speculations ­— especially considering that we have to assume that Russia’s posture isn’t fixed but is inevitably influenced by NATO’s actions. What we can assess with some certainty is what Russia has been engaged in so far — which in turn provides us with the best possible insight as to what it might do next. The question that needs to be asked is thus: does the evidence support Western claims that Russia is engaged in a “hybrid war” against Europe? Read the article here: thomasfazi.com/p/the-russian…

Honoured to be in such great company! New book out October 20, for now only in German: westendverlag.de/Die-Bruesse…

Some comments of mine on European vassalisation and EU authoritarianism at the margins of the first East-West Forum in Istanbul (courtesy of @FrontPopOff).

The real threat to Europe — politically, economically and militarily — is the US, not Russia.

Excerpt from the opening speech of @ulrikeguerot at the first edition of the East-West Forum in Istanbul: “I speak here for the many European citizens who do not want war with Russia. Who no longer wish to be instrumentalised for US-American geostrategic interests that are suicidal for the European continent. Who still hold to the vision codified in the Charter of Paris of 1990: a European security architecture with Russia. Who still dream of a politically united Europe — not one highjacked by the narrow or vengeful interests of a High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, that do not reflect the interests of 450 million European citizens. These 450 million are tired of ridiculous false flag operation like at Leipzig airport and the limpid effort to pull NATO countries into the Ukrainian war that even Ukrainians want to end soon. And those citizens do not wish to see an ever more technocratic Union drift toward authoritarian habits — placing critical voices on extra-legal EU sanction lists, and dragging the continent of the Enlightenment back toward the dark Middle Ages. Allow me also a word as a German citizen. I stand for the silent majority of German citizens that are bewildered that critical infrastructure on our territory can be destroyed by a country that used to be our friend and partner — and that our government has nothing to say about it. These Germans are equally shocked that our government still supports Volodymyr Zelensky, who is — and I quote Marsha Havrishko’s recent peace on Substack here — “the Jewish face of a far-right renaissance in Ukraine”, which I recommend you all to read. This silent — or silenced — majority of German citizens is disgusted that the government of the one country that is responsible for the Shoa of the last century is today supporting the facistoid and racist behavior and military actions of the Ukrainian and Israeli governments. It is not within my power to do so, but if it were, I would apologise for it!”. @HavryshkoMarta @haricinews east-west-forum.com