When I make a post about presidential turnout, here’s what I mean A county matching 100% of its presidential turnout brings a powerful load of votes. Travis County (Austin, TX) had 103% of its 2016 presidential votes cast in the 2018 TX Senate race. So did a number of suburban counties that slid left. Red turnout was solid, but was roughly 80-85% of presidential in most key counties. So if you know a state, then the percentage of presidential votes casts matters. To win NY, you’d want to see NYC running way behind and red areas closing fast on presidential totals. If the blues vote, they win. Likewise, in these red states like Ohio, if the urban areas are supposed to be front loading and they are sitting in the basement and the reds are ahead, it means the electorate will be disproportionately made up of heavy red counties doing more voting relative to the blues than they did in a presidential. If all counties matched their presidential baseline vote count, then you could start slinging independent and crossover differentials.