FREE VIDEO: Deficits, Bubbles, China, Defense, and AI — A Framework for Understanding the World Today Deficits, asset bubbles, China’s rise, the defense spending boom, and the AI arms race may appear to be separate developments. I believe they are all connected. In this new Macro Watch video, I bring together the major themes I’ve examined during 2026 and provide a framework for understanding how and why the world is changing. The video also explains why artificial intelligence may now be pushing Creditism toward a new economic system that I call Cognitism. For the first time, I’m making this video free for everyone to watch. If you find this video useful, please repost it and help me share it with a wider audience. #AI #China #NationalSecurity

What if winning the AI race matters more than making a profit? If Washington views Chinese AI dominance as a national security threat, conventional financial considerations could become secondary. That could change everything. Read more on Macro Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/a…

Railroads, electrification and the internet transformed the world—but investors lost fortunes when too much money poured in. Could AI follow the same path? My new Macro Watch video examines the risks behind America's $10 trillion AI bet. Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/a…

America could invest $10.3 TRILLION in AI infrastructure by 2032—dwarfing previous investment booms. But will AI generate enough profits to justify the spending? The new Macro Watch video examines the enormous stakes. Watch here: richardduncaneconomics.com/a… #AI #Nvidia

What happens if long-term Treasury yields keep climbing toward 7%? The new Macro Watch video explains why that risk is rising—and why the consequences for stocks, bonds and household wealth could be severe: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #Crash #Inflation #AI

The Road To 7% Yields and A Stock Market Crash. AI, defense spending and reindustrialization are creating powerful new inflation pressures. The new Macro Watch video looks at what this could mean for markets and wealth: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #Inflation #AI

The 10-year Treasury yield has spiked above 5.2%. AI investment, military spending and reindustrialization could push it toward 7%—and trigger a stock market crash. The new Macro Watch video explains why: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #BondYields #AI

The Fed raised rates this week—but there’s more to the story. With long-term Treasury yields near levels not seen since 2007, the Fed had to convince the bond market it was serious about inflation. This Macro Watch video explains what could come next: richardduncaneconomics.com/t…

The Fed can raise interest rates. But it can’t manufacture oil or diesel. With inflation rising, diesel above $6 and the economy still strong, the #Fed faces an increasingly difficult dilemma. The latest Macro Watch video explains why. Watch it now: richardduncaneconomics.com/t…

The Fed Had To Raise Interest Rates To Stop Interest Rates From Rising. It sounds like a contradiction. It isn’t. The new Macro Watch video explains why the Fed was trapped—and why this week’s rate hike may only be the beginning. Learn more: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #FOMC

Macro Watch Briefing — September 17 Something unusual is happening: • The Fed just raised rates. • The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%. • Oil remains above $100. • Yet GDPNow just jumped to 5.1% growth. Meanwhile, shortages of missile interceptors highlight the enormous investment needed to rebuild Western defense capacity. Bottom Line: AI, defense and federal borrowing are creating extraordinary demand for capital. How high must rates go before the economy finally slows? Disclosure: Prepared with AI assistance, reviewed and edited by Richard Duncan.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 16 A big macro day: • The Fed decides today, with a rate hike expected as the 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 5%. • Oil remains above $100, while the global diesel shortage continues to threaten inflation. • The US and Germany have agreed to deepen defense-industrial cooperation and expand production capacity. • German defense spending is set to surge from €108 billion in 2026 to nearly €154 billion by 2028. Macro Watch Bottom Line: AI, defense and government borrowing are creating enormous demand for capital—just as interest rates and energy costs surge. Something has to give. Disclosure: Prepared with AI assistance, reviewed and edited by Richard Duncan.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 15 Something has to give. The US economy remains remarkably strong, but the 10-year Treasury yield has hit 5%, oil remains above $100, and the Fed appears poised to raise rates. Meanwhile, China’s domestic economy is weakening sharply. Retail sales grew just 0.4% in August and fixed investment fell 7.2%, even as Chinese exports continue to surge. And the enormous AI investment boom remains a major engine of US growth—but one increasingly worth watching as concerns about the pace of AI development intensify. Macro Watch Bottom Line: 5% Treasury yields + $100 oil could become a powerful brake on credit, investment and growth. So far, the US economy hasn’t blinked. Disclosure: Prepared with AI assistance, reviewed and edited by Richard Duncan.

Macro Watch Briefing — Sept. 13 • US Credit System: The Fed’s new Z.1 report shows total US debt securities + loans outstanding reached $120.4 trillion in Q2 2026. That’s: +$2.2T in one quarter. +$7.3T in one year. +$40.4T since the end of 2019. Total credit-market debt has increased by roughly 51% since the eve of the pandemic. • Largest Components: Federal government debt securities outstanding were about $34.9T in Q2 (this is the Z.1 debt-securities measure, not total gross federal debt). Financial-sector debt was $27.7T, business debt $24.0T, and household debt $21.4T. Macro Watch implication: Creditism remains alive and well. The US economy is still operating on an enormous and expanding stock of debt. • Geopolitics: Energy risk worsened again over the weekend as pressure increased around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, two of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints. Macro Watch Bottom Line: The US credit system has expanded enormously since 2019—and it is still growing. That helps explain the economy’s resilience, but it also makes the system increasingly sensitive to high interest rates and geopolitical shocks. Disclosure: AI was used to assist in compiling this briefing.

US household net worth—i.e., wealth—increased by $12.8 trillion in Q2 2026 alone, an amount equivalent to roughly 40% of the entire US government debt held by the public. Macro Watch Briefing — Sept. 12 • America's Wealth: The Fed's new Z.1 report shows household net worth reached a record $195.9 trillion, up $20.6 trillion in just one year. Since the post-financial-crisis low in Q1 2009, household wealth has increased by an extraordinary $136.6 trillion—more than four times today's $32.4 trillion of federal debt held by the public. For perspective, even if $32.4 trillion were somehow raised from accumulated wealth to retire all government debt held by the public, American household wealth would still be approximately $104 trillion greater than at the 2009 low. That doesn't mean such a policy should be adopted. But these numbers provide important perspective on America's fiscal position and the range of policy options available. • Treasuries: The 10-year yield briefly reached 4.98%, while the 30-year hit 5.38%, its highest since 2007. • Inflation: One-year consumer inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%. Markets now see roughly an 80% probability of a Fed hike next week. • AI & Credit: Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capex in just three months. AI is rapidly becoming not only a technology and investment story, but a major credit story. • US Economy: GDP growth remains strong and bank credit continues expanding, while S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow roughly 31.5% in 2026. Macro Watch Bottom Line: America's government is heavily indebted—but America's private sector is extraordinarily wealthy. The new Fed data provide important perspective on both the scale of the fiscal challenge and the resources potentially available to address it. Learn more from Macro Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/ Disclosure: AI was used to assist in compiling this briefing.

Macro Watch Briefing — Sept. 11 • Bond Yields Surge: US government bond yields jumped sharply overnight. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.97%, just below 5%, while the 30-year climbed to about 5.38%. Rising oil prices, inflation fears and expectations of further central-bank tightening are driving a global bond selloff. • Oil: Brent surged toward $110 a barrel, up roughly 13% this week, as the Middle East conflict intensified. US producer prices are now up 5.4% YoY, adding to inflation concerns. • Interest Rates: The ECB raised rates yesterday. Markets now see roughly a 70% chance the Fed will hike next week, while the BOJ may also raise rates later this month. • AI: Oracle reported a remarkable $664 billion backlog and spent $28.5 billion on capex in just three months. The BIS estimates the five largest tech companies will invest more than $1 trillion in AI during 2025–26. • Defense: US startup Covenant plans to eventually manufacture as many as 12,000 low-cost cruise missiles annually, another indication that Western defense production is shifting toward much greater scale. Macro Watch Bottom Line: Oil near $110 is intensifying inflation pressure just as government bond yields are surging. Meanwhile, AI, defense, energy and governments continue demanding enormous amounts of capital. The combination of higher inflation, higher interest rates and extraordinary capital demand is becoming an increasingly important risk for the global economy and financial markets. Disclosure: AI was used to assist in compiling this briefing.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 10, 2026 Oil Breaks Above $100 The Middle East energy shock has crossed an important threshold. Brent crude closed above $101 a barrel yesterday, its highest close since May, as attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz intensified. More importantly, the US Energy Information Administration now estimates that Middle Eastern oil production shut-ins reached 6.7 million barrels per day in August and could average roughly 5.7 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter. The EIA does not expect regional production and exports to return to normal until the second quarter of 2027. Macro Watch implication: If that forecast is correct, this is no longer simply a temporary oil-price spike. A prolonged period of $100 oil would gradually feed through transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, shipping and household budgets. That creates a particularly difficult problem because the US economy remains relatively strong and bank credit continues expanding. The result could be an increasingly uncomfortable combination: Strong economic growth + $100 oil + higher inflation + higher interest rates. The Era of Rate Cuts Has Suddenly Become an Era of Rate Hikes Only recently, financial markets were focused on when the world's central banks would cut interest rates. Now the situation looks very different. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates today. The Federal Reserve may raise rates next week. And the Bank of Japan may also raise rates later this month. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.85%, approaching the psychologically important 5% level. The US Treasury is responding to recent bond-market stress by increasing its purchases of older long-term Treasury securities. Today's planned buyback of as much as $6 billion of 10-to-20-year bonds is three times larger than its previous long-duration operation. But buybacks can improve liquidity. They cannot eliminate the government's enormous financing requirement. Macro Watch implication: The fundamental problem remains the same. The US government must persuade investors to finance enormous fiscal deficits at precisely the moment when inflation risk is increasing and other sectors of the economy are demanding extraordinary amounts of capital. The question is increasingly: How high must interest rates rise to attract enough capital? AI Is Becoming an Energy Boom Google has just provided another remarkable illustration of the scale of the AI investment boom. The company plans to invest approximately €13 billion—about $15 billion—in AI infrastructure in Finland over the next two years, including three new data centers. Even more revealing, Google signed a 22-year agreement to purchase as much as half of the electricity generated by a Finnish nuclear power plant. Google now expects to invest roughly $195 billion to $205 billion globally during 2026. Think about that number. One company could invest approximately $200 billion in a single year, much of it to build the infrastructure required for artificial intelligence. And AI increasingly requires far more than semiconductors. It requires: data centers, electricity generation, transmission lines, transformers, cooling systems, natural gas and nuclear power. Macro Watch implication: The AI revolution is becoming an energy and infrastructure investment boom. A 22-year nuclear-power agreement makes clear that the technology companies themselves believe this demand for electricity will persist for decades. That means the AI boom could drive extraordinary fixed investment throughout the physical economy for many years. The Competition for Capital Intensifies AI is not alone. Defense companies are expanding factories and securing critical suppliers. Europe is rebuilding military capacity. Energy companies are investing in LNG and other infrastructure. Governments are borrowing extraordinary amounts. And Japan—one of the world's largest traditional suppliers of cheap capital—is raising interest rates and may increasingly keep more of its savings at home. At the same time, corporate earnings remain remarkably strong. Current consensus estimates suggest S&P 500 earnings could grow roughly 28.5% in Q3, 26.1% in Q4 and 31.5% for 2026 as a whole. So the immediate problem is not a collapsing economy. It may be something quite different. There may simply be too much demand for capital. Bottom Line For nearly two decades following the Global Financial Crisis, the world suffered from excess savings and inadequate investment. That helped drive interest rates toward zero. Today the economic environment increasingly appears to be reversing. AI wants capital. Defense wants capital. Energy infrastructure wants capital. Governments want capital. Corporations want capital. And now a persistent oil shock is increasing inflation at the same time. If investment demand is beginning to outrun the available supply of savings, then higher long-term interest rates may not simply be the result of central-bank policy. Higher interest rates may be the price required to ration capital in a world where the demand for it has become extraordinarily large. That could prove to be one of the defining macroeconomic transformations of this decade. Disclosure: This briefing was prepared with assistance from AI, using Richard Duncan’s Macro Watch analytical framework. Richard reviews and edits the final version.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 9, 2026 Oil Is Approaching $100 The Middle East energy shock continues to intensify. Brent crude climbed to roughly $99.50 a barrel today, after rising sharply during the past week as the US-Iran conflict increasingly threatens shipping and energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. At this point, whether oil trades at $99 or $101 is less important than how long it remains near these levels. If oil stays around $100 for several months, higher energy costs will spread through transportation, manufacturing, food production and household budgets. Macro Watch implication: This is becoming a potentially serious inflation problem. The US economy remains relatively strong. Bank credit continues expanding. And the recent employment report was much stronger than expected. If $100 oil pushes inflation higher again, the Federal Reserve could have little choice but to tighten monetary policy further. That would mean an unusual—and potentially dangerous—combination: Strong economic growth, rising inflation, $100 oil and higher interest rates. AI's Demand for Capital Keeps Growing Amazon and Qualcomm have announced another enormous AI infrastructure agreement. Amazon could purchase as much as $60 billion of Qualcomm AI data-center chips and related products under a new multiyear arrangement. The agreement is important because it demonstrates that the AI semiconductor boom is broadening beyond Nvidia. But there is a larger economic story here. The AI boom increasingly involves enormous long-term commitments for: semiconductors, data centers, electricity generation, transmission networks, cooling systems and financing. AI is therefore becoming not merely a technological revolution, but one of the largest investment booms in modern economic history. Macro Watch implication: Every new multibillion-dollar AI commitment increases the global demand for capital. And AI is not the only sector demanding enormous amounts of financing. Governments are running huge deficits. Defense industries are expanding production. Energy infrastructure requires massive investment. And corporations continue borrowing. All of them are competing for the same pool of savings. Who Will Finance the US Government? Against that backdrop, the US Treasury is increasing its purchases of older long-term Treasury securities. Beginning today, Treasury is at least doubling the size of certain buyback operations involving securities with maturities between 10 and 30 years. These operations can improve liquidity in the Treasury market. But they do not solve the underlying problem. The US government still needs to borrow enormous amounts of money. And one of the world's traditional suppliers of that money—Japan—is undergoing a historic monetary reversal. Japanese bond yields have risen sharply, the yen has strengthened dramatically, and higher domestic returns may increasingly encourage Japanese investors to keep their savings at home. That makes the question of who will finance America's enormous government deficits increasingly urgent. I examined this issue in detail in my Macro Watch video: “Who Will Buy the US Government's Next $25 Trillion of Debt?” Readers who would like to watch that video and access the Macro Watch archive can become paid subscribers to Macro Watch. richardduncaneconomics.com/w… China Is Exporting More—and Lending More Cheaply China's August exports surged 25% from a year earlier, while its monthly trade surplus reached approximately $119 billion. At the same time, something interesting is happening in international credit markets. Offshore renminbi bond issuance has reached roughly RMB 1 trillion—about $149 billion—this year, a record. The attraction is obvious. China's 10-year government bond yields only around 1.7%, compared with nearly 4.8% for the US Treasury. Macro Watch implication: China could gradually become a more important supplier of low-cost credit to the rest of the world. For decades, Japan played that role. Now, as Japanese interest rates rise, China may increasingly become a source of cheap international financing. This does not threaten the dollar's reserve-currency role anytime soon, but it is an important development in the evolution of the global financial system. Bottom Line Oil is approaching $100. AI companies are making enormous new investment commitments. Defense industries are expanding production. Governments continue borrowing extraordinary amounts. And Japan may increasingly retain more of its savings at home. All of these developments point toward the same underlying economic issue: The global demand for capital is becoming enormous. For nearly two decades after the Global Financial Crisis, the world was characterized by excess savings and inadequate investment demand. Today's world increasingly looks like the opposite. If capital is becoming scarce relative to the demand for it, then higher long-term interest rates may not simply reflect inflation or Federal Reserve policy. Higher interest rates may be the mechanism through which the global economy rations increasingly scarce capital. That could prove to be one of the defining macroeconomic changes of this decade. Disclosure: This briefing was prepared with assistance from AI, using Richard Duncan’s Macro Watch analytical framework. Richard reviews and edits the final version.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 8, 2026 Is the Yen Carry Trade Beginning to Unwind? Something potentially very important is happening in Japan. The yen strengthened to as much as ¥152.89 per dollar today, its strongest level in seven months. It has now appreciated roughly 4.5% since last week. That matters because the yen has crossed a level that JPMorgan recently identified as potentially dangerous. JPMorgan estimated that approximately ¥16–17 trillion—about $103 billion—of bearish yen positions remained outstanding. Its strategists warned that if the dollar fell below ¥155, short covering could begin feeding on itself, producing a larger-than-expected appreciation of the yen. In the extreme case of a complete unwind of those positions, JPMorgan calculated that the dollar could theoretically fall to somewhere between ¥142 and ¥146. We are now well below ¥155. This does not mean ¥142–146 is inevitable. But the mechanism JPMorgan warned about may already be coming into play. The yen is strengthening as investors increasingly expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this month. Japan's 10-year government bond yield recently crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, while Japanese real wages rose 2.4% in July, strengthening the case for further monetary tightening. Macro Watch implication: This is precisely the risk I have been warning about. For decades, investors could borrow enormous amounts of yen at extraordinarily low interest rates and invest that money in higher-yielding assets around the world. But now Japanese interest rates are rising and the yen is strengthening. That combination can turn a highly profitable carry trade into a highly unprofitable one very quickly. If investors are forced to repay their yen borrowings, they must sell the assets they purchased with that borrowed money and buy yen. That makes the yen stronger still—which can force even more investors to unwind their positions. That is how a carry-trade unwind can become self-reinforcing and potentially destabilize global financial markets. Macro Watch's Japan Series Macro Watch has recently published a four-part series examining the extraordinary evolution of Japanese monetary policy from 1999 through 2026. The series explains how Japan moved from zero interest rates and quantitative easing to increasingly radical monetary experimentation—and how that process has now gone into reverse with higher interest rates and quantitative tightening. Two of the most recent videos are: “Japan Could Shake Global Markets Again: Is the Yen Carry Trade About to Unwind?” and “Japan's Monetary Reversal Could Wipe Out Trillions,” published on September 3. The purpose of this series has been to warn investors about exactly the kind of developments we are now seeing. For a comprehensive overview of the evolution—and now reversal—of Japanese monetary policy during this century, readers can become paid subscribers to Macro Watch to watch the complete series and access the accompanying dozens of charts. richardduncaneconomics.com/c… Oil Moves Closer to $100 Meanwhile, another major risk is developing in the Middle East. Brent crude has risen to approximately $97 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict increasingly threatens energy infrastructure and shipping throughout the Persian Gulf. If the disruption persists, the consequences could extend well beyond oil. Higher energy prices would raise inflation, squeeze household purchasing power and increase pressure on central banks to keep interest rates high—or raise them further. With the US economy still relatively strong, $100 oil could significantly strengthen the case for another Fed rate hike. AI's Next Bottleneck: Electricity The AI investment boom also continues to broaden. The constraint is increasingly moving beyond GPUs and data centers to something even more fundamental: electricity. Utilities are confronting enormous requests for new power capacity from proposed AI data centers. That means the AI boom increasingly requires investment not only in chips and servers, but also in power plants, transmission lines, transformers, cooling systems and potentially nuclear and natural-gas generation. Macro Watch implication: AI is becoming an even larger source of capital demand than semiconductor spending alone suggests. Bottom Line The yen's move below ¥155 per dollar deserves very close attention. JPMorgan specifically warned that crossing this level could accelerate the unwinding of enormous speculative yen positions. The exchange rate is already near ¥153. At the same time, Japan is raising interest rates, Japanese bond yields are rising, and quantitative tightening is reversing decades of extraordinarily easy monetary policy. If that reversal causes Japanese capital to return home and forces leveraged carry trades to unwind, the consequences could spread far beyond Japan. Meanwhile, oil is approaching $100 and the AI investment boom is creating enormous new requirements for electricity and capital. These developments reinforce the same larger Macro Watch theme: The world is moving away from the era of abundant, extraordinarily cheap capital. Japan may now be one of the most important catalysts accelerating that transition. Disclosure: This briefing was prepared with assistance from AI, using Richard Duncan’s Macro Watch analytical framework. Richard reviews and edits the final version.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 7, 2026 Japan's Monetary Reversal Is Becoming a Global Story Japan reported today that its foreign-exchange reserves fell by a record $79.6 billion in August to $1.21 trillion. The decline followed approximately ¥15.4 trillion—nearly $100 billion—of intervention to support the yen between late July and late August. This matters far beyond Japan. Much of Japan's foreign-exchange reserves are invested in foreign securities, particularly US Treasuries. Supporting the yen can therefore require Japan to sell foreign assets to obtain the dollars needed to buy yen. At the same time, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, and markets now expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate again this month. Macro Watch implication: For decades, Japan was one of the world's great exporters of cheap capital. Now that process may be reversing. Higher JGB yields make investing at home more attractive. Higher Japanese interest rates make borrowing yen more expensive. A stronger yen creates losses for investors using yen-funded carry trades. And intervention can require Japan to sell foreign securities. All of those forces point in the same direction: less Japanese capital flowing abroad and potentially more capital returning home. That could have major implications for US Treasury yields and global asset prices. My latest Macro Watch video, “Japan's Monetary Reversal Could Wipe Out Trillions,” explains why this reversal could ultimately trigger an unwind of the yen carry trade and produce a severe shock across global financial markets. Readers who would like the complete analysis—and the dozens of charts explaining how Japan reached this extraordinary turning point—can become paid Macro Watch subscribers to watch the video and access the complete Macro Watch archive: richardduncaneconomics.com/ Hormuz Is Becoming More Dangerous The US-Iran conflict escalated again over the weekend, with attacks increasingly involving vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is now approaching $97 a barrel after rising almost 8% last week. The greatest danger is not simply the loss of Iranian oil. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil normally passes through Hormuz. A major disruption could therefore affect exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. Macro Watch implication: A serious Hormuz disruption could produce a classic stagflationary shock—higher inflation combined with weaker economic growth. That risk is particularly important after Friday's strong US employment report increased the likelihood of further Fed tightening. Oil approaching $100 and another Fed rate hike would be a dangerous combination for financial markets. China Strengthens Its Banks China announced approximately $54 billion of capital injections into major state-owned banks and insurers. The objective is to strengthen their capital positions and preserve their ability to expand lending. Macro Watch implication: From a Creditism perspective, Beijing clearly understands that continued credit creation is essential for economic growth. But China faces a more difficult problem than simply ensuring banks have enough capital. It must also generate sufficient demand for credit. With the property sector weak and household confidence subdued, Beijing is increasingly redirecting credit toward AI, robotics, advanced manufacturing and other strategic industries. That can support investment and economic growth—but it may also create even more industrial capacity that ultimately must be sold overseas, intensifying global trade tensions. Bottom Line Three major forces are converging. Japan may be shifting from exporting capital to bringing it home. War around Hormuz threatens another global inflation shock. China is strengthening its financial system to maintain credit creation and strategic investment. Meanwhile, AI investment remains exceptionally strong, defense spending is surging, governments continue borrowing enormous amounts, and US bank credit continues expanding. All of this points toward the same underlying issue: The global competition for capital is intensifying. For decades after 2008, the world struggled with too much savings and insufficient investment demand. Today, governments, AI companies, defense industries and energy producers are all demanding enormous amounts of financing—while Japan, one of the world's largest traditional suppliers of capital, may increasingly invest its savings at home. If that continues, higher long-term interest rates may not simply be a temporary consequence of inflation or Fed policy. They may be the price required to balance an increasingly intense global competition for capital. Disclosure: This briefing was prepared with assistance from AI, using Richard Duncan’s Macro Watch analytical framework. Richard reviews and edits the final version.

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