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Penn State advanced analytics. EPA • success rate • explosiveness — not vibes. Daily charts · Big Ten Sundays.
University Park, PA
Joined September 2026
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Penn State led 17-0. From there it was Wisconsin 24, Penn State 3.
The final was Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20. The second half did the math.
Penn State went for it on 4th & 1 up 38 and up 42 this season.
Up 10 at its own 38 to start the fourth against Wisconsin: punt.
Penn State has just 196 yards of total offense after 45 minutes of play and is averaging a mere 4.2 yards per play. Wisconsin is at 147 and 3.7, respectively. PSU will line up to go for it on 4th and 1 at its own 38 to start the fourth quarter.
on3.com/teams/penn-state-nit…
Campbell's Iowa State teams after a loss: 27-22. Also two separate 5-game losing streaks.
No spiral on average. Averages were never the problem. Which Campbell shows up Saturday?
Good morning 🌞
Woke up to a bunch of DMs/Tags asking my take on last night's PSU loss, the morning after.
I don't have one.
The only thing that "fixes" this is winning.
And winning means issues have been addressed. It's not that PSU lost. It happens.
It's the nature of the loss. Unacceptable on many levels.
This next week will determine what kind of coach & team Penn State really has.
Matt Campbell teams leading by 10 or more in the 4th quarter since 2018: 46-0.
Saturday made it 46-1. A minor blemish.
Penn State on 3rd down in the 4th quarter: 0 for 4, average 10.3 yards to go.
First half: 5.8. The degree of difficulty was self-selected.
Fourth quarter: Wisconsin 208 yards, Penn State 37. Final: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20.
When did you know the plan was to punt it out?
Wisconsin has thrown two interceptions. Penn State has thrown zero. Halftime is 17-7, somehow casually.
Penn State scores on 76% of red zone trips. Wisconsin is at 100%.
Through 3 games for each.
Penn State entered this game No. 112 in red zone touchdown percentage on offense. That field goal won't help the numbers. After a five-yard gain on first and goal, the Lions went -3 and incomplete pass before Barker's field goal to make it 3-0.
on3.com/teams/penn-state-nit…
Penn State is at 76% in the red zone. Wisconsin is at 100%.
Opening drive tonight: field goal. Coincidence?
Credit to Wisconsin for balance.
Big Ten FPI efficiency: 13th of 18 on offense, 13th of 18 on defense. Neither unit is carrying the other.
Opponents have returned exactly zero punts against Penn State.
PSU: 13 returns · 172 yards · 13.23 Y/R.
FG 5/6 (83.3%) · forced 22 opp punts (PSU 9).
ST board through 3. Numbers travel.
tell him anyway.
Becht thru 3: 45/64 · 751 · 11.7 Y/A · 9 TD · 0 INT · 8 comps of 25+
Allar’s 2025 non-con window: 7.1 Y/A · 4 TD · 1 INT · 3 of 25+
Soft SOS owned. The efficiency isn’t.
