Love Earth science and everything else, from the cosmologically big to the fundamentally small.

Joined June 2017
Morning video discussion: *Tropics are alive and well..."Isaias" likely to become 1st hurricane and hit the central Gulf..."Rachel" to impact much of western US* arcfieldweather.com/videos
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Today is September 10 - the climatological peak of Atlantic #hurricane season. In 2026, the Atlantic has generated the least Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of any season through Sept. 10 since 1950. ACE is an integrated metric accounting for storm intensity & duration.
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The universe just came into sharper focus! 🌌 Argonne, @UChicago and partners created the deepest map yet of matter in the distant universe using South Pole Telescope data, with support from @ENERGY and @NSF. Explore the findings. ⬇️ news.uchicago.edu/story/sout…
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If you’re curious and love to learn, there has never been a better time to be alive.
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The primary reason for CSU's below-normal Atlantic #hurricane season forecast is high confidence in continuing strong #ElNino conditions. El Nino typically decreases Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in Caribbean/tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.
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There are examples of both. It depends on the individual - their desire, mindset, cognitive health... All are modifiable.
Does creativity decrease with age or improve?
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The Caribbean is slightly warmer than normal, while the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal. This pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperatures provides mixed signals regarding the potential for an above- or below-normal Atlantic #hurricane season
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Always has good stuff, with no hype.
Morning video discussion: "A look at SSTs and prospects for an El Nino...revisiting the early March stratospheric warming event and the likelihood for multiple cold air outbreaks across the northeastern states" arcfieldweather.com/videos
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Important to understand this.
Replying to @philklotzbach
While the historical Atlantic #hurricane database from NOAA (HURDAT2) extends back to 1851, we likely underestimated storm intensities prior to the satellite era (before ~1966).
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Same for me, though I mostly use Gemini. If you understand their weaknesses, these AI tools are incredibly useful and will get better.
I am actually quite happy with GPT 5. I mean, could always be better, but it does have its uses. I wouldn't have said the same thing last year, but some time earlier this year LLMs crossed a usefulness threshold for me. Or maybe I've just learned what *not* to ask...
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We are looking for a company vehicle with 4x4 or AWD that we can use to get to our field sites. We don't have the biggest budget, so we're working on alternatives to buying new. The vehicle doesn't need to be a newer model or even in great condition. 1/2 Bad AI pic for attention
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Looking at actual data, the vast majority of stations with long PORs indicate no increasing trend in frequency or severity of heavy precipitation events. This fits within the bounds of natural variability built into the climate system.
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The most advanced reasoning will not unearth the truth without a basis grounded in evidence. That is, any such effort needs to start with collecting real world data. xitter.cf/elonmusk/status/193633…
We will use Grok 3.5 (maybe we should call it 4), which has advanced reasoning, to rewrite the entire corpus of human knowledge, adding missing information and deleting errors. Then retrain on that. Far too much garbage in any foundation model trained on uncorrected data.
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