Mathematician turned climate scientist researching tipping points at the University of Exeter
Joined February 2021
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New preprint out today highlighting that the duration of a 1.5C overshoot matters. We find that all climate tipping points would be avoided if global warming over 1.5C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming kept below 2.5C. doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-20… @coxypm @UofE_Research
Paul Ritchie retweeted
Cool animation from @PDLRitchie! Shows the probability of triggering a climate tipping point does not go from zero to one as soon as a threshold is crossed. Instead, it depends sensitively on the time for which a threshold is exceeded. Shorter duration overshoots are safer.
New preprint out today highlighting that the duration of a 1.5C overshoot matters. We find that all climate tipping points would be avoided if global warming over 1.5C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming kept below 2.5C. doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-20… @coxypm @UofE_Research
A great first paper by @RuthChapman1407 illustrates the different mechanisms (bifurcation, noise, and rate-induced) for tipping of the AMOC in a conceptual box model calibrated to HadGEM3. @SachaSinet @GSI_Exeter
Yesterday the first paper from my PhD, 'Tipping Mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation' was published online, and can be read here: doi.org/10.1002/wea.7609
@SachaSinet @PDLRitchie @ExeterUniMaths @UofE_Research @RMetS
Paul Ritchie retweeted
What burning questions on tipping points occupy climate scientists?🌎
👉Join #ClimTip at #EGU24 to find out! Follow a day with brilliant speakers in Vienna.
Chaired by Niklas Boers | Co-chairs: @Ricarda_Climate, Anna von der Heydt, Tim Lenton.
ℹ️More: meetingorganizer.copernicus.…
Paul Ritchie retweeted
On many parts of the land surface, the hottest days are warming faster than the annual mean, according to a new paper by Chris Huntingford, @Lambda_Joe, @PDLRitchie et al. (@UKCEHPapers @GSI_Exeter @ExeterUniMaths ). Full paper available at: rdcu.be/dDIsn
Paul Ritchie retweeted
Fantastic to see Peter Ashwin from @ExeterUniMaths on this list, well deserved. Congratulations to Peter and the entire class of SIAM Fellows 2024! sinews.siam.org/Details-Page…
Paul Ritchie retweeted
#Climate system #tippingpoints will be increasingly at risk under a temperature #overshoot but could social tipping points be part of the solution?
New commentary from @PDLRitchie @DrJFAbrams @dvdmckay @coxypm Tim Lenton @GSI_Exeter
cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/…
Paul Ritchie retweeted
Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of…
We have a new commentary article published in @OneEarth_CP today highlighting how tipping points can both be a problem and a solution authors.elsevier.com/a/1iG8K… See🧵for more details @DrJFAbrams @dvdmckay @coxypm @GSI_Exeter @UofE_Research
Initiating positive tipping points are needed to reach the levels of decarbonisation now required. Under correct enabling conditions (affordability, attractiveness, accessibility), Norway has created a positive tipping in the sales of electric vehicles and others are following.
Paul Ritchie retweeted
First conference, first poster and today I won a prize for it! A very supportive environment to share ideas about my research with PhD students, early career researchers and profs. Roll on another week of seminars, intro to Julia, and the half marathon! #nadcom23 @mpi_pks – at Dresden, Germany
🚨Exciting PhD opportunity at @UTAS_🚨 The project, supervised by Dr Courtney Quinn, will study rate-induced transitions in cyclones & involve collaborations with @IMASUTAS & @GSI_Exeter! Deadline for applications is 25th September. utas.edu.au/research/degrees…
Paul Ritchie retweeted
New research from Dr Hassan Alkhayuon of
@UCCsms, Prof Sebastian Wieczorek of @eriucc
@UCCsms, @PDLRitchie of @GSI_Exeter has found that our ability to adapt to global warming will be impaired if the rate of change is too rapid
irishexaminer.com/news/munst…
@SEFSUCC @UCCResearch
Paul Ritchie retweeted
Tipping points can be triggered unexpectedly by dangerous rates of change news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of…
Paul Ritchie retweeted
A new #TippingPoints study highlights the dangers of "rate-induced tipping" - triggered not by the level of change but by how quickly that level is reached
@coxypm @PDLRitchie @GSI_Exeter @UniofExeter
Paper 👉 esd.copernicus.org/articles/…
Press release 👇 news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of…
Paul Ritchie retweeted
👏👏Huge congrats to @UniofExeter collaborators @PDLRitchie , @coxypm & @UCCsms colleagues @hassanalkhayuon and Sebastian Wieczorek for recently published article in journal @EGU_ESD which shows tipping points can be triggered earlier than expected.
@UofE_Research @UCCResearch
Excited to see our paper on rate-induced tipping published in @EGU_ESD today! The rate of change (not just magnitude) in external forcing conditions is a key mechanism for tipping in natural & human systems esd.copernicus.org/articles/… @hassanalkhayuon @coxypm @UofE_Research @UCCsms
Paul Ritchie retweeted
Climate tipping points are typically viewed as ones that are triggered when a threshold is crossed (e.g. in global mean temperature). A new paper by @PDLRitchie et al. @GSI_Exeter explains the much less well-known phenomenon of rate-induced tipping esd.copernicus.org/articles/…
