I heard this is where all the cool kids hangout! ex JPM, BlackRock, and Macro L/S HF trader. #NFA
Joined October 2023
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- Stanley Druckenmiller -
"I'm constantly fighting my bearishness about the world. One of the great hedge fund managers of all rime, Bob Wilson, greatest short seller ever, said he made 90% of his money on the long side, the math just works against you. If you're perfect on a short, you can double your money. But if you're wrong on a short, you can lose 10 times your money. If you're dead wrong on a long, you lose your money. But if you're right, you can make 10 times your money. It's a mathematical inverse of that with shorting. You don't have to be a rocket scientist. I know, therefore, that if you have a bearish bias, you have to be very aware of it. You have to work around it. And I always have."
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Tue 27 Oct 2026
Brazil saw its worst stock-market day since 1998 after Lula's win, and Bolsonaro is seeking to annul the result. Israel votes today, with Netanyahu trailing in most polls. Trump calls an Iran ceasefire "a waste of time."
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🇧🇷 BRAZIL CRASH: The Ibovespa closed down 13.88% at 176,608 after falling as much as 17% intraday. The dollar jumped 8.79% against the real.
B3 halted trading for 30 minutes, its first circuit breaker since the COVID crash in 2020.
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🇧🇷 The Treasury canceled its Oct 27–29 debt auctions. At a 15% drop, the Ibovespa was already on track for its biggest one-day fall since 1998, per Reuters.
ING: "There was a strong consensus that it was going the way of Bolsonaro."
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🇧🇷 FINAL COUNT: Lula 51.79%, Bolsonaro 48.21%, a margin of 4.43M votes. Pollsters say higher turnout carried Lula.
Bolsonaro is asking the courts to annul the result, citing a two-hour voting extension the Supreme Court ordered. Analysts see the challenge as a long shot.
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🇧🇷 Read: the market loaded up on the Bolsonaro trade, and I did too. Before the vote, BTG Pactual had warned a Lula win could knock the Ibovespa down about 17% to ~170K. That's almost exactly what happened.
Strong commodity revenue should cushion the real somewhat.
11/
🇺🇸 TRUMP: He called a ceasefire with Iran "sort of a waste of time," touting the blockade and claiming US "total control."
Qatar says mediation needs Iran to show good faith, stop threatening Arab states and reopen Hormuz. The gap hasn't moved.
12/
💰 Bessent told Iran International that Iranians should stock up on gasoline and heating fuel ahead of expected shortages.
He predicts Iran's economy will shrink by more than a quarter in the year to March 2027.
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☢️ An Iranian lawmaker called for leaving the nuclear treaty and building a bomb: "if war breaks out again, we will set the world on fire."
He said leaving the treaty would need sign-off from the National Security Council. This is the second such call in a week.
14/
🇮🇷 Rezaei met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Hormuz, relations with neighbors and ending the "neither war nor peace" state.
Parliament speaker Ghalibaf says Khamenei is in "full health." Both claims are aimed at quieting rumors about his condition.
15/
⚓ Iran's new strait authority threatens legal action from Nov 1 against vessels of South Korean shipper Sinokor, citing more passage violations than any other company.
The US has sanctioned this authority. Shippers are caught between US and Iranian rules.
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🇰🇷 Iran's ambassador warned South Korea not to get more involved as Seoul weighs options to protect shipping near Hormuz.
Read: the Sinokor threat is pressure on Seoul.
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🇷🇺 Pezeshkian met Qatar's emir at the gas exporters' summit in Moscow; a meeting with Putin is expected.
Qatar is now buying US LNG to cover lost Hormuz exports, a big shift in global gas flows.
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🇬🇧 FAIRFORD: Two men were charged under the UK's National Security Act over activity near the US-operated base. Police say Iran is the foreign intelligence service involved.
My Quick take: Two lessons from Brazil. When the market leans hard one way, a surprise hits violently. And prediction markets near 80% still lose one time in five.
I'm applying that to Israel: Netanyahu is the underdog in most polls, not the favorite.
On Iran: Tehran won't talk until its conditions are met, Washington won't agree to a ceasefire, and the Tehran meeting produced only more talks.
The stalemate continues into Nov 3. Israel's result tonight is the next major factor in the strike calculation.
Thoughts from Michael Hartnett, BofA | Enter The Dragon
Zeitgeist quotes:
•"Worst thing that could happen to this bull move in Treasuries is a recession."
•"If I bought a cemetery, people would stop dying," client on being long China.
While markets remain focused on AI valuations and the Fed, several developments suggest a broader shift in global risk:
•China's deflationary pressure: The CSI 300 has entered bear-market territory, property investment continues to decline, and China's high-tech exports reached a record $147bn in September, up 63% YoY. Weak domestic demand is increasingly translating into aggressive export competition and pressure on global corporate margins.
•AI investment concerns: Massive hyperscaler capex commitments are raising questions about future returns. "No AI boom = no boom" captures how dependent earnings expectations have become on continued AI investment.
•Bond market warning: US Treasuries have experienced their worst rolling 10-year returns in a century. Yet bonds are attracting renewed inflows as investors reassess growth risks.
•A significant rotation: Technology funds attracted $18.8bn in a single week, while consumer funds experienced record outflows. Market leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated even as technology valuations face scrutiny.
•2027 earnings expectations: Global technology EPS growth forecasts have climbed to 43%, leaving considerable room for disappointment if AI investment slows.
The paradox is that weaker growth could support government bonds while simultaneously undermining the corporate earnings assumptions supporting equity valuations.
The key risk is not necessarily an immediate market crash, but a combination of Chinese export deflation, tighter credit conditions and an AI investment slowdown.
Are markets pricing a temporary correction, or the beginning of a more fundamental repricing of global growth expectations
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Mon 26 Oct 2026
Weekend headline: Lula won Brazil's runoff in a historic comeback, and Brazilian assets are being hit hard. US intel warns of advanced Iranian plots against US diplomats. Israel votes tomorrow.
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🔥 WEEKEND TOP 5:
1Lula beat Bolsonaro, and the Brazil ETF plunged
2Brent settled at $116.72 Friday
3Iranian assassination plots and US embassy drawdowns
4Trump: make a deal or "finish them off"
5Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials meet Iran in Tehran today
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🇧🇷 BRAZIL: Lula won 51.76% to Bolsonaro's 48.24%, a margin of over 4 million votes. He is the first candidate since 1989 to win a runoff after finishing second in the first round.
⚠️ My base case leaned Bolsonaro, in line with polls and prediction markets. That was wrong.
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🇧🇷 MARKET HIT: The US-listed Brazil ETF (EWZ) plunged nearly 20% in overnight trading, reversing the rally after Bolsonaro's first-round win. Reports say Bolsonaro has refused to concede.
Expect the real and the Ibovespa to fall sharply today. Watch Bolsonaro's next move.
5/
🇧🇷 Read: Lula will face a right-leaning Congress after the right's gains in the first round. Expect gridlock on budget and fiscal policy.
A strained relationship with Trump's Washington is now likely, given US backing for Bolsonaro.
16/
🇷🇺 Iran's President Pezeshkian goes to Moscow for the Oct 27 gas exporters' summit, where Araghchi says he will meet Putin.
Watch for Russian support for Iran, including help with gas supply.
17/
⚓ HORMUZ: A tanker leaving through the strait was struck and disabled Friday (reported late). The crew is safe.
CENTCOM says it has helped more than 3,000 commercial vessels through, and Gulf partners have exported over 1.5B barrels.
18/
🇶🇦 ENERGY SHIFT: Reuters says QatarEnergy is negotiating long-term US LNG purchases from Woodside, on top of a Cheniere deal and advanced talks with Venture Global.
The Hormuz disruption is driving lasting changes in global LNG supply.
19/
🇮🇱 ISRAEL VOTES TOMORROW: Netanyahu posted an AI-generated video of Iran's Supreme Leader "endorsing" him: "only Likud can stop Iran."
He has warned of a forceful response to any Iranian interference in the vote.
My quick take: Last week's market call was right, the Brazil call was wrong.
Brent ran past $113 to $116.72 as flagged. But I underweighted Lula's ability to consolidate centrist and anti-Bolsonaro votes. Lesson: a first-round lead doesn't guarantee a runoff win.
On Iran, all the signals point to a decision soon after Nov 3: embassy drawdowns, assassination plots, "finish them off" rhetoric.
The Tehran meeting is the last regional diplomatic push before then. Without a breakthrough, Brent at $120+ is the November base case.
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Fri 23 Oct 2026
Brent closed above $113 and now trading above $116, the level I flagged yesterday. The Atlantic reports Trump is weighing days of strikes on Iran after Nov 3. Iran is threatening Gulf airports and pipelines. Ministers meet in Istanbul today.
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🛢️ BREAKOUT: Brent jumped 4% Thursday to settle at $113.17, its highest close since May. WTI rose 2.4% to $99.47.
The trigger was the Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites, which added a fresh risk premium.
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🛢️ That's the sustained break above $113 analysts said could open the way to $120. This morning Brent is about $113.70 and WTI about $100.
Gas averages $4.27 a gallon nationally, per AAA.
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🇺🇸 The White House response: Trump invoked the Defense Production Act for petroleum, authorizing federal purchases, loans and loan guarantees for US drilling, pipelines, storage and refining.
These are long-term supply measures for a near-term problem.
5/
🇺🇸 Per The Atlantic, citing officials, Trump is considering restarting the military campaign against Iran with several days of strikes after Nov 3.
He told reporters the US "knocked the hell out of" Iran and "may do it a little bit further."
11/
🇸🇦 Reuters, citing satellite analysis by US researchers, says Saudi Arabia is expanding a ballistic missile plant west of Riyadh. It could produce longer-range missiles as early as year-end.
That's a long-term shift in the regional military balance.
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🇾🇪 The Saudi-led coalition intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Khamis Mushait in southwest Saudi Arabia today.
The Houthi campaign continues daily across the kingdom.
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💵 MARKETS: Valero posted its highest-ever quarterly profit, beating expectations as war-driven fuel disruptions widened refining margins.
Refiners are the clear winners of this war's oil economy.
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🇹🇷 Turkey hosts ministers from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France and Germany in Istanbul today, on Iran, Hormuz, Yemen, Gaza and Ukraine.
Watch for a joint statement on shipping in Hormuz and the Red Sea.
My takeaway: Both sides are now openly preparing for a war after the midterms. Washington is planning strikes and says it can blockade indefinitely. Tehran says it can last past Trump's term and threatens Gulf infrastructure.
With Brent at $116, the oil market is starting to price in November.
The next level to watch is $120. Watch for a Netanyahu win Tuesday, any Iranian-linked incident in Israel before the vote, and the first week after Nov 3.
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Thu 22 Oct 2026
The war has reached Saudi Arabia's oil heartland. Strikes on Dammam airport and the Shaybah field killed four, Aramco cleared its HQ, and the US ordered some embassy staff out. Brent is back near five-month highs.
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⚠️ CORRECTION: I missed in Tuesday's edition that the Houthis claimed an Oct 19 strike on an Aramco site in Yanbu, the tripwire I've been flagging.
There's no confirmed damage report, but the threshold I named has been tested.
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🇸🇦 DAMMAM: Saudi aviation authorities say Wednesday's attack on King Fahd airport killed two and injured eight; one of the dead was an Indian national. Operations have since resumed.
Dammam is in the Eastern Province, home to Aramco and the kingdom's oil infrastructure.
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🇸🇦 A drone strike on Aramco's Shaybah oilfield killed two people but didn't affect operations.
Reuters, citing six sources, says Aramco told staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely. That has never happened in this war.
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🇺🇸 The US has ordered some personnel and family members to leave American embassies in Saudi Arabia.
That move is a key signal. Washington doesn't take it lightly.
11/
🇹🇷 Turkey will host foreign ministers from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France and Germany in Istanbul Friday. It's the first meeting in this seven-country format.
The agenda covers Iran, Hormuz, Yemen, Gaza and Ukraine. The US isn't at the table.
12/
💰 Treasury's financial crimes unit subpoenaed an unnamed Greek bank as part of an Iran sanctions-evasion investigation. Greece says it is enforcing the sanctions and cooperating.
The US is now pursuing Iran's financial networks inside EU banks.
13/
🇵🇰 Iran is threatening to close its land border with Pakistan if Islamabad keeps blocking Iranian trucks, even as Pakistan mediates.
Iraq closed a border crossing yesterday. Iran's land routes are narrowing.
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🛢️ MARKETS: Brent settled at $109.55 Monday, $108.79 Tuesday, and $108.82 Wednesday. It touched $111.99 intraday Tuesday, a five-month high.
Brent is about $112 on early trading today, and WTI about $99.
15/
🛢️ Goldman says average crude freight costs are over $20 a barrel, up from $3 a year ago. About $7 of that is Hormuz war-risk premium.
Reported progress toward Russia–Ukraine talks has helped cap crude, since a deal could ease the diesel shortage.
My Quick Take away: The Houthis' targets have moved from Saudi Arabia's southwest to Riyadh, and now to the Eastern Province's airport, oilfields and Aramco's HQ.
That is the part of the kingdom that supplies the world. The US embassy drawdown says Washington sees the risk rising.
If Brent sustains a break above $113, analysts see $120 coming into play.
Israel is ready to strike, a Netanyahu win on Oct 27 is plausible, and Trump's pre-midterm restraint expires Nov 3. November is shaping up as the most dangerous window of this war.