Onur Sucu retweeted
Prediction: Nvidia is cooked either way. CUDA and GPU design were insurmountable moats 12 months ago, now a Fable-class model can independently rebuild both for <$1m token spend. The rent is falling to the next bottleneck.
So this just means it’s inaccurate and ramp doesn’t have the visibility of ai spend
NEW Ramp AI Index: In October, AI spend rose 2%. OpenAI and Anthropic growth fell to low single-digits.
Engineering teams drove 72% of spend, followed by customer service and leadership.
Given this relatively modest growth in spend, and new competitive dynamics that may stick around, the markt should look to new fronts in the AI trade.
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Sorry but you’re not getting 70$ $ANT at ipo. It will have unprecedented demand
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Onur Sucu retweeted
This thing gonna beat and raise every day for 2 weeks
Onur Sucu retweeted
Engineering is changing: FDE is ascendant while mobile and front-end roles are disappearing.
Open mobile and front-end engineers jobs have been nearly halved in the past year!
STATE OF THE TECH JOB MARKET IN 2026
Twice a year, I dig into trends in hiring and job openings. This is the fifth report I've done, and the most surprising yet:
1. PMs are winning in the AI era
2. Engineering demand has stalled
3. Design openings are at a record low
4. Every role now requires AI skills
5. Tech jobs are concentrating in the Bay Area
6. Remote roles are at a record low
7. The tech job market is growing fast, but mostly outside of software (gasp!)
Full report here: lennysnewsletter.com/p/state…
Onur Sucu retweeted
This graph doesn't prove what it seems to prove.
Lots of people forget that ECI progress is a linear metric but tracks expontential capabilities.
That is: Exponential money --> linear ECI improvement --> exponential AI capability improvement
AI progress per dollar of investment shows diminishing returns (as we've all known, right?) This is using METR's estimate of acceleration at Anthropic. That acceleration isn't enough to overcome the diminishing returns. by @sebkrier
i recently moved from Toronto to London and pretty much agree with all
Some thoughts on London as someone visiting from Toronto:
1. I truly do not understand how young people make it here without family wealth. Housing and food are so expensive and salaries are lower to boot.
2. Globalism has made it extremely easy to eat "authentic" cuisines in any decently-sized city around the world. As such, I have no interest in eating "really good Vietnamese". I have that at home. What's the thing I can only eat here? What actually makes you unique in this world?
3. British food gets a worse rap than it deserves. When it's good it's great. Full english breakfasts, meat pies, pasties, Sunday roasts. The problem is that it's easy to make, and frequently experienced, as mediocre.
4. They consistently know how to make good potatoes here. Crispy on the outside, soft on the inside.
5. I truly believe that you have experience things yourself to really understand it. For example, you might hear someone say "the beans really bring the whole thing together" and nod along, but it's not until you eat a proper full english breakfast that you're like "mm yes the beans really do bring the whole thing together."
6. It's incredibly grounding to be surrounded by layers and layers and layers of history. So much has come before us to bring us to where we are.
7. It is quite a moving place to be around Remembrance Day. To visit the war museum, see sites of historical importance, watch the ceremonies. The poppy takes on an entirely different meaning. Not only is it to commemorate veterans, but its a symbol of unity. Two sides of an ocean, Canadians and Brits wear poppies, remembering that our countries fought side-by-side, from the very beginning, together.
8. The urbanism is fantastic. Pedestrian-friendly, mature tree-lined streets, beautiful facades. Canadians may wave this away and say, "These cities were built before cars." But even new neighbourhoods like Canary Wharf are very pleasantly designed. Planning in Toronto is very broken. The guidelines and rules we've set lead to bad results. And the frustrating this is that it's all a choice.
9. It is wonderful to be able to pick two neighbourhoods on a map and have a decent transit connection between them.
10. You never see anti-social behaviour on transit. They are constantly running these PSAs over the speakers to text a number if you see anything. "See it. Say it. Sorted." I love it so much. Particularly the "sorted" and the accountability that the system takes on. Interestingly, I also heard a PSA that was like, "If someone asks you for money, donate to a charity instead." Extremely based to encourage the public to deter this behaviour.
11. There is no consensus for if pedestrians should walk on the right or the left. Maddening.
12. I do not understand how Brits get the reputation for loving to queue. I had some downright egregious experiences. Canadians are way more polite and respectful.
13. I have yet to see a child glued to a device. On transit, they're looking out the window, reading, or drawing. Curious if anyone knows why?
Retail is starving for direct exposure to frontier labs and will ape in and drive Anthropic to $3T marketcap.
Anthropic IPO Consensus Views:
- Overvalued at $1.5T
- Revenue is flattening
- Token are commoditized due to open source
- Token prices falling faster than demand
- Anthropic shouldn't go public b/c robbing general public of upside and passing on risk.
- Anthropic is Twilio but for intelligence.
Contrarian
- Anthropic is still a 10x from here and has venture upside.
- $80B ARR reported by WSJ is just primarily coding agents and will re-accel with Fable / Mythos
- Finance, legal, life sciences, Ode are all super early ...
- Agents = still early and most businesses think of AI = ChatGPT / Claude app.
- Anthropic will zoom past $100B ARR EOY with release of Fable 5.2 / Mythos 5.2
- Retail is starving for direct exposure to frontier labs and will ape in and drive Anthropic to $3T marketcap.
- Anthropic is easily a $500B revenue business in 2030 with simple assumption Fortune 500 spent 0.1% of OPEX today ... Stripe spends 1% and not crazy Fortune 500 replace labor with tokens in 2030. 1% of OPEX would imply 10x of the $75b revenue Q3'26 so $750B revenue in 2030.
Full thesis + model coming out Wednesday
H/T @zhengjielimm
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Yann LeCun is cooked btw.
Replying to @claudeai
Fable 5.2 shows substantially improved skills in controlling physical robots, even on tasks it has never explicitly been trained to do.
On RoboDojo, a benchmark with a simulated two-arm robot, it outperformed other models and most AI systems built to control robots.
































