2026, day 267 Good morning from Asia - summit and ‘nufink’ by 2026 standards so far today, but still lots to consider… GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Xi Jinping says US and China must ‘coexist in peace’ in historic White House visit’ (FT); ‘Trump Administration Presses China on Suspected Nuclear Tests in Confidential Talks’ (WSJ); ‘At Trump meeting, Xi Jinping lays out terms to avoid US-China military conflict’ (Guardian) - “”With such conditions in place, Xi said, “the Thucydides trap can be overcome””; ‘Xi Pushes Trump to ‘Oppose’ Taiwan Independence in Rare Call’ (BBG); ‘China pushes back against Takaichi’s call to remove ‘enemy state’ wartime label’ (Japan Times); ‘Russia could attack Nato country within months, Denmark warns’ (FT): ‘Macron denies France received CIA warning of Russian drone attack’ (Euronews); ‘Rutte says Putin is in a 'bad place' as he reassures NATO allies amid threat reports’ (Euronews); ‘US and Poland near deal for American base with 10,000 troops’ (Politico); ‘Poland to open new embassy in Minsk – Sikorski’ (Bel Sat); ‘Zelensky defends attacks on Russian refineries: ‘Our lives are more important than the price of energy’’ (The Hill); ‘Yemen's Houthis claim to have launched missiles, drones at Riyadh, Aramco facilities in Yanbu’ (Reuters); ‘France to Deploy Forces to Protect Saudi Red Sea Oil Port’ (WSJ); ‘Saudi Arabia pitches multinational maritime defense coalition for Red Sea’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Iranian President: 'We don't dictate to the Houthis what to do'’ (Ynet); ‘Highest volume of crude oil since July transited Hormuz this week: US defense official’ (Al Arabiya); ‘US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Tehran says hopes US returns to MoU before midterm elections’ (AJ); ‘Lebanon PM tells Iran president country cannot be arena for regional wars’ (AFP); ‘Netanyahu slams world leaders as ‘moral cowards’ and liars’ (AFR); ‘When America walks away’ (Economist) - “For decades America has enjoyed hegemony over the Middle East. That is about to end”; ‘Space: the final frontline’ (FT); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Trump Struggles to Find Leverage With Xi Over Chinese Exports’ (NYT); ‘Trump’s tariff war is clobbering the Hanks of America’ (FT); ‘The Debate Over a Diesel Export Ban Is Giving Europe Whiplash’ (WSJ); ‘Le Pen says US diesel export ban would have ‘incalculable’ impact on French citizens’ (Politico); ‘China’s sulphur imports dive 65% as prices surge 3.5 times amid Middle East disruption’ (SCMP); ‘EU Parliament president urges Germany to do deal in US drug pricing dispute’ (Politico); ‘Russia raises taxes to fund its war in Ukraine’ (FT) - “Moscow to increase dividend tax on foreign investors and introduce windfall taxes on gold and metals producers”; ‘UAE halts Iranian flights over US sanctions’ (FT); ‘EU court adviser backs broader 'dual-use' export definition’ (Euractiv); ‘Korea, Mexico adopt joint action plan to expand cooperation in defense, crude oil, AI’ (Korea Times); ‘Trump allies open new front against Anthropic CEO over AI "doomerism"’ (Axios); ‘US, China should keep AI under human control, Xi says’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Oracle triggers 'force majeure' on data center project over power delays, source says’ (Reuters): POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Downing Street advisers push for early election’ (Telegraph); ‘French far left sparks backlash with debt ‘fire’ plan’ (FT) - “Proposal to cancel bonds accumulated during years of ECB quantitative easing is enraging economists but tempting voters”; ‘Trade unions protest in Brussels against EU Inc’ (Euractiv); ‘White House reinstates access to CNN, MS NOW and Politico following judge's order’ (Reuters); MARKETS: 📈 ‘US 30-Year Yield Hits Two-Decade High’ (BBG); ‘Five is the magic number for US Treasuries’ (FT) - “10-year yield cannot sustainably go much higher”; ‘Bond Traders Are Paying Too Much Attention to the Oil Price’ (WSJ)

2026, day 266 Good morning from Asia - with big talk at the UN, big talks in the U.S., FT talk of vassal states, and Canada talking about Afghanistan as a model if the U.S. invades… Another classic 2026 day. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Xi Jinping arrives for high-stakes summit with Donald Trump as leaders extend trade truce’ (FT); ‘As Xi Visits Washington, Trump Plays Down China’s Actions Against U.S. Interests’ (NYT); ‘China Is Holding Sensitive F-35 Parts Diverted to Hong Kong’ (BBG); ‘Revealed: Xi's nuclear weapons expansion at seven secret sites’ (Telegraph); ‘Iran’s president tells U.N. his country ‘must be powerful so as to avoid being threatened’’ (WaPo); ‘Senior IRGC commander killed in operation in southeast Iran’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Trump's Board of Peace to unveil $2.45 billion Gaza recovery plan’ (Axios); ‘Turkey and Iraq agree Turkey will turn over military camp in northern Iraq’ (Reuters); ‘Ethiopia has shown restraint despite interference, president says’ (Reuters); ‘Putin says election turnout shows Russians support military agenda’ (Reuters); ‘Russia’s Lavrov tells UN Moscow will not ‘pause’ Ukraine ops’ (AFP); ‘Russia's Lavrov and US Secretary Rubio meet at UN to discuss Ukraine, relations’ (Reuters); ‘Zelenskiy warns of painful winter for Russia if energy truce talks fail’ (Reuters); ‘Russian military helicopter violates Polish airspace, fighter jets scrambled’ (Euronews); ‘With Putin, Trump’s G-20 Would Be Summit Spectacle of the Century’ (WSJ); ‘Blair urges Burnham to rejoin EU’ (Telegraph); ‘Milei demands Falklands talks with Burnham’ (Telegraph); ‘RAF secretly using satellite jammer to foil enemy spies’ (Telegraph); ‘‘My job is to assume things get worse,’ says our new defence chief’ (AFR); ‘Carney Tells NYT He Looked at ‘Extreme Tail Risk’ Of US Invasion’ (BBG); ‘Trump lays a new trap for Takaichi’ (FT) - “The threat of appearing as a vassal state is growing ever more real for middle powers”; ‘Japan's Takaichi grows cautious of setting GDP defense spending target’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘US turns to South Korea to ease ammunition bottlenecks amid global conflicts’ (SCMP); ‘Trump to Venezuela's Rodriguez: Elections need to happen’ (Axios); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘U.S., China extend trade truce through Jan. 10 ahead of Trump-Xi meeting’ (MSNOW); ‘Berlin seeks to loosen EU ‘made in Europe’ rules’ (Euractiv) - “‘Germany rejects protectionism and discrimination,' according to a leaked paper”; ‘Canada seeks deforestation law carveouts as EU ties deepen’ (Politico) - “Ottawa complained of “burdensome requirements” for Canadian firms under anti-deforestation rules”; ‘US lawmakers propose overhaul of China tech review before Trump-Xi talks’ (Reuters); ‘AI leaders warn UN of security risks as systems grow more powerful’ (Reuters); ‘Mark Zuckerberg unveils AI ‘charm’ device that can fit on a keychain’ (FT); ‘US Energy Secretary Wright says diesel export ban won't work’ (Reuters); ‘‘Dammit, something has to happen’: White House preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban’ (Politico) - “Some GOP lawmakers and oil industry reps are still fighting to stave off an announcement”; ‘European diesel prices climb over prospect of US export ban’ (FT) - “Any move by Washington to suspend foreign sales would be ‘catastrophic’ for global supplies, analysts warn”; ‘Norway says Europe's 'largest' rare-earth mine plan set for 2028’ (Euronews); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Romania’s political deadlock risks handing power to far right, PM nominee warns’ (Politico); MARKETS: 📈 ‘US Treasury yields soar most since ‘liberation day’ tariffs shook markets’ (FT); ‘A Perfect Storm Is Raging in the Bond Market’ (WSJ); ‘Polymarket presses Europe to treat its bets as financial products’ (FT)

2026, day 265 Good morning from Asia - and it’s big names and big games at the UN and in the U.S. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘World Leaders Almost All Agree on One Thing: The U.N. Is Failing’ (WSJ); ‘US Navy destroyers tested in Middle East as demands mount’ (Defense News); ‘Iran offers Hormuz reopening within 7 days if US steps back’ (Gulf News); ‘Trump’s meeting with Arab states on UN sidelines displays US Mideast strategy during war - analysis’ (JPost); ‘US and Iran hold first talks since June as Donald Trump threatens ‘annihilation’’ (FT); ‘Iran hardened demands for ending war with US after June deal collapsed, IRGC says’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Trump says US held ‘very productive’ three-hour meeting with Iran’ (Al Arabiya); ‘‘MBS will not forget’: Donald Trump’s reluctance to fight Houthis rattles Saudi Arabia’ (FT); ‘Qatar’s emir urges diplomacy as Gulf at ‘one of the most dangerous phases’’ (AJ); ‘Qatar attempting to distance itself from Hamas, looking to West, expert tells ‘Post’’ (JPost); ‘Al-Sharaa: October 7 cannot dictate Israel's Syria policy, talks reached 90% agreement’ (JPost); ‘In UN farewell, Macron denounces Trump's Gaza diplomacy as spectacle of shame’ (Reuters); ‘In the Baltics, NATO Forces Are Trying to Learn the New Way of War’ (WSJ); ‘EU removes two Russian billionaires from sanctions list’ (Politico) - “Usmanov and Fridman were cut from the blacklist after capitals yielded to lobbying by France behind closed doors”; ‘'Cherry-picking sanctions' risks 'normalising' Russia, Latvian PM says amid Usmanov row’ (Euronews); ‘Kyiv and Washington want war in Ukraine to end 'before winter,' Zelenskyy says’ (Euronews); ‘Russia quietly modernises bomb shelters in Moscow and St Petersburg’ (Euronews); ‘Trump wants to be with the ‘winners.’ Europe should remember that.’ (Politico); ‘Burnham bows to Trump over Chagos deal’ (Telegraph); ‘Burnham refuses to rule out rejoining EU’ (Telegraph); ‘Trump, Greenland, Denmark sign deal in bid to end Arctic standoff’ (Reuters); ‘EU defence industry calls for 'clear' European preference in ECF’ (Euractiv) - “The US recently pushed for such a criteria to be weakened”; ‘Argentina Eyes New Submarines and Frigates in 2027 Budget Plan’ (Naval News); ‘Senate Armed Services Committee chair criticizes Trump-Xi meeting’ (WaPo); ‘In Trump, Xi Sees ‘Rare Window’ to Convince Taiwan That Resistance Is Futile’ (WSJ); ‘Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources say’ (Taipei Times); ‘Can Xi and Trump use their leverage to actually make progress?’ (SCMP); ‘Trump Pageantry for Xi Will Mask Feud Over US-China AI Race’ (BBG); ‘Trump, Takaichi reaffirm alliance days before US-China summit’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘South Korea's Lee urges US to ease North Korea sanctions to freeze nuclear programs’ (NYT); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Trump adviser ties high gas prices to refining’ (Axios); ‘Donald Trump says he would back US diesel export ban’ (FT); ‘Canada and U.S. should form self-reliant bloc for fertilizer, Carney suggests’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Baghdad, Muscat stop accepting Iranian flights, Iranian agency says’ (Al Arabiya); ‘EU reaches initial free trade deal with Philippines in pivot to Asia’ (Reuters); ‘A $5,000 Bike Shows Why It’s Hard to Build in America’ (BBG); ‘Trump rejects global entity for AI oversight’ (Politico); ‘Anthropic and OpenAI release cheaper models as price war intensifies’ (FT); ‘Pay rent, eat or keep warm? Growing numbers face hard choices as housing benefit gap grows’ (Guardian); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘At the UN, Brazil's Lula warns against foreign interference in upcoming election’ (Reuters); ‘Kamala Harris campaigns with Abdul El-Sayed to unify Democratic voters’ (AJ); ‘Republican senator calls for probe of Trump family business dealings’ (Reuters); MARKETS: 📈 ‘Big Japan banks' domestic loan share marks 1st sustained post-bubble rise’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Alibaba shares jump as new AI chip, data center buildout plans unveiled’ (CNBC)