Martin van Onassis 🇳🇱

🇶🇦 QatarEnergy has lined up 3 US deals in 2 days. The world’s second-largest LNG exporter is now buying American LNG. Cheniere Energy, Inc.: signed, 4m tonnes a year from 2031 to 2054 Venture Global LNG: in advanced talks for at least 3m tonnes a year Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG: in talks for up to 3m tonnes a year over 15–20 years If all 3 close, that’s about 10m tonnes a year. Add Qatar’s 70% of the 18m-tonne Golden Pass plant in Texas ( ExxonMobil). Why would Qatar buy gas from someone else? Because this year a single strait cut off its exports. When Hormuz shut, QatarEnergy declared force majeure and bought 33 spot cargoes of US LNG, mostly from Venture Global, to keep supplying Korea, Taiwan, India and Japan. In LNG your reputation depends on delivering. Qatar’s customers have 20-year contracts with it. If it can’t ship from Ras Laffan, it ships from Louisiana. Then there’s the price. Many of Qatar’s long-term Asian contracts are linked to crude oil. US LNG costs about 115% of Henry Hub plus a liquefaction fee of around $2.50. With Henry Hub near $3, that’s about $6 at the plant before shipping. So Qatar can buy at a Henry Hub price and sell at an oil-linked price. Qatar doesn’t set the oil price, but every extra dollar on Brent lifts what its oil-linked buyers pay. Every US cargo Qatar buys is a cargo Europe and Asia can’t. The world’s biggest LNG seller is now bidding against its own customers for American supply. That’s why JKM and TTF sit near $30. Qatar is buying a second route out and Henry Hub is starting to shape prices in Doha.